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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #6,021
  • May 6, 2011 8:27am May 6, 2011 8:27am
Quoting kamen
can someone explain why silver/gold up although the NFP was positive.
I don't think anybody can. NFP is too short-term and there are simply too many variables influencing the price: technicals, fundamentals, short-term, long-term, and so on... You can basically create any explaination you want.

For instance: don't you think that gold and silver are oversold after so many sell-offs? Some people may think "well, this crazy NFP is over, the numbers were not bad, so now I can get those bargains". That's just one version. If you go to TV, you will hear many others.

@beeb: silver hit $33 right before NFP. Same game?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #6,022
  • May 6, 2011 8:39am May 6, 2011 8:39am
Quoting fawaol
Two forks for Ag.
Not sure what rule you are following to select your pivots, but I'm glad to see them on your charts.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #6,023
  • Edited 9:24am May 6, 2011 9:00am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting Wile E
I second that request.
It's Just a miracle!

Unemployment rose for 0.2%. Is that not enough for you??


Silver will hardly rise above 36 today, so it is more likely to hit 31 before significant retrace...
oops its already higher lets see....
  • #6,024
  • May 6, 2011 9:25am May 6, 2011 9:25am
Quoting Fmfx
Seems our good ol uptrend in gold is trying to resume

Added longs since 1466...
you are right up trend is resume now
Trading by EA
  • #6,025
  • May 6, 2011 9:46am May 6, 2011 9:46am
Yes gold taking a breath as expected on friday. Hoping for a bullish resume next week!
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #6,026
  • May 6, 2011 10:07am May 6, 2011 10:07am
Great post Harv3ster. You are correct. You do not and I strongly suggest to any newbie trading gold to trade micros.
We can break it down again. In terms of gain and loss.
before so - I am still unclear. Maybe it is your broker?

- a 1.00 Usd move in Gold should equal 100 pips.
- a usual spread in gold is 50 cents to enter. Or in other words 50 pips.
So assuming on any average day gold swings at least 10 bucks.
This would equal 1000 pips.

In terms of making money. Here is the breakdown : In 10 dollar movements
using a cash fx broker trading XAU/USD

.01 Lots ($1,000 value XAU over USD) (or 1 MICRO lot) x 1000 pips or (10 USD move)
= 10 USD in profit

.10 Lots ($10,000) (or 1 MINI lot) x 1000 pips or (10 USD move)
= 100 USD in profit

1.0 Lots or ($100,000) (or 1 STANDARD lot) x 1000 pips or (10 USD move)
= 1000 USD in profit\

SEE attachment - It's the closest I could get to a 10 usd swing using all size lots

Yes agreed _ ALWAYS BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING BECAUSE IT CAN AND WILL HAPPEN>>>!!!!!!

Risk ON today!



Quoting harvest3r
Let me tell you: I'm having decent profits trading gold... my account is surely no Micro account... and still, my initial order size is 2 oz. Yes, 0.02 lot! I am thankful for every 50 pips ($5.0) profit per oz. You don't have to trade big positions in order to be profitable, maybe the opposite can be the truth.

I would like to correct my last post a little bit. Yes, it was not a lucky time for you to start trading live. BUT you need to have a strong strategy and a strong management (not forgetting the psychology), good enough to survive any crash....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold lots.GIF Size: 9 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,027
  • May 6, 2011 10:09am May 6, 2011 10:09am
Quoting MapleLeaf
Yes gold taking a breath as expected on friday. Hoping for a bullish resume next week!
Yeah! if we pass next week without a major sell off, we could say $1600 will be taken by June-July before the usual seasonal correction.
  • #6,028
  • Edited 11:28am May 6, 2011 10:23am | Edited 11:28am
Quoting shripsfx
Hmmmm looks like my call on commodities on the 25th April come good...my system does work alright

Thanks to all the guys that criticised me for going against the trend. Its the best contrarian signal ever!!!!
I am with you 100 %.

Contrarian or not, when the gold price passed $1530 without taking a break, I stopped adding to my longs and thought better to wait and see how $1600 responds.

When we passed $1550 I started putting short positions with large stop loss order (I could afford since I hedge the short positions with my long-term long gold positions) to avoid the usual gold spikes and added my second short at $1575.

If you think about it, everyone has access to fundamental news and technical analysis on the INTERNET, in newspapers, etc. Therefore technically EVERYBODY should be making ONLY profit by just buying gold in dips because the long-term trend is up.

Last fews days really showed and in my opinion was a classic example what trading is all about. Major things happen when MOST do NOT expect them and there are things and moves NO chart can explain, ever!

I find it a bit funny, people where buying gold (and telling everyone to by showing charts!) like crazy when it was $1550-1570 ish last week and now it became almost $110 cheaper and suddenly people tell you not to buy? Again, isn't this against this whole UPTREND idea if you do not buy at a much lower price?

I am sure, some (with most of them probably among those who shorted gold last week) saw this drop as a HUGE DIP and buying opportunity and added and will add to their longs.

Gold price will fluctuate, might drop another $50 in short-term but after this correction, we can expect a healthy (healthier) bullish pattern to resume again. I will perhaps begin to think about shorting it when we pass $1650.

About silver, I am not sure and no expert. I thought it was a bit overvalued when it passed $35 and $50 was just a joke.

But, gold is well, GOLD. You can even tell by looking at it!
  • #6,029
  • May 6, 2011 10:36am May 6, 2011 10:36am
Quoting shripsfx
Hmmmm looks like my call on commodities on the 25th April come good...my system does work alright

Thanks to all the guys that criticised me for going against the trend. Its the best contrarian signal ever!!!!
Wow, you called a correction that everyone and their mother-in-law was waiting for and on top of that you feel you were contrarian! Amazing work!

What is even more amazing you didn't just call a correction you called a MAJOR CRASH!
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #6,030
  • May 6, 2011 11:32am May 6, 2011 11:32am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Wow, you called a correction that everyone and their mother-in-law was waiting for and on top of that you feel you were contrarian! Amazing work!

What is even more amazing you didn't just call a correction you called a MAJOR CRASH!
As far as I remember most people here were saying gold will ONLY go up with maybe some MINOR corrections and some were even seeing $1600-$2000 in near future!!!

If those posts are not edited or deleted, it is fairly easy to check posts from last 2 weeks.

I, for one, was being questioned why would I want to even short gold and now we have the answer: To have a nice ride from $1575 to $1465!!!
  • #6,031
  • May 6, 2011 12:07pm May 6, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting kamen
can someone explain why silver/gold up although the NFP was positive.
Unemployment rate goes up .2% that is how the market reacted to it...weaker dollar, stronger metals...
  • #6,032
  • May 6, 2011 12:34pm May 6, 2011 12:34pm
WOW!

Euro seems to be heading south in future. Good for both the USD and Gold... It is funny how USD is getting its overdue boost from different sources.

It might even suggest that pretty much everyone is doing little by little to boost the USD.

Here comes the summer...
  • #6,033
  • Edited 1:49pm May 6, 2011 12:43pm | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting XTrade
Great post Harv3ster....
- a 1.00 Usd move in Gold should equal 100 pips.
- a usual spread in gold is 50 cents to enter. Or in other words 50 pips.
So assuming on any average day gold swings at least 10 bucks.
This would equal 1000 pips.

In terms of making money. Here is the breakdown : In 10 dollar movements
using a cash fx broker trading XAU/USD

.01 Lots ($1,000 value XAU over USD) (or 1 MICRO lot) x 1000 pips or (10 USD move)
= 10 USD in profit

.10 Lots ($10,000) (or 1 MINI lot) x 1000 pips or (10 USD move)
= 100 USD in profit

1.0 Lots or ($100,000) (or 1 STANDARD lot) x 1000 pips or (10 USD move)
= 1000 USD in profit\
Hello XTrade,

Just wanted to say "Thank You" for the detail you share for those who trade here...even the PM newbies. Lots of great traders with good info. posting regularly, but more than that, people with a heart for others. Your passion for what you do comes through...also true for the regulars here. Glad I happened to drop in.

Your recent sharing of your silver purchases was also fun to see. Your excitement came through.

Thanks again,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #6,034
  • May 6, 2011 1:58pm May 6, 2011 1:58pm
Took a few decent scalp trades on Gold today and closed the day at a profit which is always nice.

I'd really like to see some bullish daily TF PA from a retest of 1475 area before i commit to a larger position.

Waiting to see what next week brings.

Would not be surprised to see price slide back around the 1435 area as that is the weekly 8 EMA which has been very accurate up to now. May take a couple of weeks to find proper support.

As always though i will try to trade what i see not what i expect.

Been a good week and a steep learning curve for many

Have a good weekend fellas.
  • #6,035
  • May 6, 2011 5:30pm May 6, 2011 5:30pm
Quoting Fmfx

About silver, I am not sure and no expert. I thought it was a bit overvalued when it passed $35 and $50 was just a joke.

But, gold is well, GOLD. You can even tell by looking at it!
for me, i didn't trade gold at this moment because my account very small only 800usd.i only trade silver and i still believe silver too cheap..it should 100usd right now!

http://www.businessinsider.com/predi...r-ratio-2011-5
  • #6,036
  • May 6, 2011 6:16pm May 6, 2011 6:16pm
This is one hell of a chart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-05-07_0015.png Size: 23 KB
  • #6,037
  • May 6, 2011 7:58pm May 6, 2011 7:58pm
The First Clue that Gold, and subsequently Silver, has an open door to the Downside will be an announcement of Economic Recovery.

Doesn't have to be the USD & it won't be the AUD {the Aussies are one of the few reaping the benifits of High Gold...} Europe & the Western World have to get thier ducks in a row before the Big Money moves from the security of Precious Metals.

This recent fall, IMHO, was a natural Market re-alignement to satisfy some Profit taking And New Enties.
I said a while back that I expected to be paying 1.600 for Gold by Christmas.
I may have to *Edit* that to read 1,640...

B
  • #6,038
  • May 7, 2011 1:45am May 7, 2011 1:45am
Monthly chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD MN 05072011.png Size: 56 KB


Daily chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD D1 05072011.png Size: 60 KB
  • #6,039
  • May 7, 2011 1:58am May 7, 2011 1:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Ratio 05072011.png Size: 26 KB
  • #6,040
  • May 7, 2011 4:24am May 7, 2011 4:24am
Some suggested sites for weekend reading/listening:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...orld_News.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/


Have a good weekend....

beeb
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