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  • #5,981
  • May 5, 2011 3:57pm May 5, 2011 3:57pm
Being farely new to trading im quite dissapointed with myself in yesterdays session, i recieved a margin call and ended up closing my long on silver. After using the demo account for 6months I decided to go live... man i dont think i could have picked a WORSE first week to come into the live game.

Though I did expect a correction I set a buy limit at $40 thinking it would be a safe entry, not even expecting it to reach that.

Back to sidelining until after NFP.

I guess you arn't really ready for the emotional side attached to live trading until you experience it.

Just looking for ballpark figures, what is a reasonable account size to trade 0.3 lots of gold on and 0.1 lots of silver?
  • #5,982
  • Edited 4:29pm May 5, 2011 4:03pm | Edited 4:29pm
Quoting lilpip
lets see if this breakout on the daily 37.31 holds.
daily breakout held lets see what this retest of yearly breakout 34.69 area does.
bias is up, a break below and pull the plug as 31.91 is projected daily lows.
daily
46.83
39.37
31.91
  • #5,983
  • May 5, 2011 4:16pm May 5, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting lilpip
It might be golds turn for the yearly breakout (will let this week confirm).
As we watch the daily charts and its trend we also have an eye on the higher timeframes.
with a monthly close above 1551, im looking at 1938 and we shall see if shes coming back for next push up or going to act like her sister and move strait up from her breakout like last year at 21.98 and this years breakout at 34.64 in silver.
gold may monthly
1592-1607
1485-93
1436
weekly
1585-87
1525
1463
weekly lows noted, lets see how monthly pivot (1485) responds with her retest as she blew by her yesterday.
  • #5,984
  • May 5, 2011 4:17pm May 5, 2011 4:17pm
It's always funny that after teh huge fall all the experts and newspapers start explaining the reason for the fall.

It's always easy to do it after the event.

They should report this BEFORE the event, not after.

The sell-off in the gold price on Wednesday was fueled by a Wall Street Journal report that several large investors – including George Soros and John Burbank – liquidated a considerable portion of their gold and silver holdings. The story noted that Soros Fund Management purchased gold and silver over the past two years to protect against the Federal Reserve’s response to the risks of deflation. However, Soros now believes that deflationary risks have dissipated significantly, making the rationale for holding positions tied to the gold price less attractive.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #5,985
  • May 5, 2011 4:19pm May 5, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting Mitchoss
Being farely new to trading im quite dissapointed with myself in yesterdays session, i recieved a margin call and ended up closing my long on silver. After using the demo account for 6months I decided to go live... man i dont think i could have picked a WORSE first week to come into the live game.

Though I did expect a correction I set a buy limit at $40 thinking it would be a safe entry, not even expecting it to reach that.

Back to sidelining until after NFP.

I guess you arn't really ready for the emotional side attached to live trading until...
Depends on the size of stop loss you use, someone else might do the maths for you but the main thing to remember is to risk a very small percentage of you account on a trade, i suggest 1-2%. this means you can have streaks of losers (and this will happen!) and you can survive.

you shouldnt be getting margin calls, let this one be your last!

ive said this many times but ill say it again-

"NO ONE TRADE SHOULD EVER HAVE THE ABILITY TO CAUSE SERIOUS DAMAGE TO YOUR ACCOUNT!"

  • #5,986
  • May 5, 2011 4:24pm May 5, 2011 4:24pm
oh as a side note, the market will always try and beat you into the ground. last year at one point i moved to using much larger lot sizes, went straight into drawdown. That was a testing time i can tell you, eventually got my self out of it after several months.
  • #5,987
  • May 5, 2011 4:34pm May 5, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
[color=#888888][i][color=black]The sell-off in the gold price on Wednesday was fueled by a Wall Street Journal report that several large investors – including George Soros and John Burbank – liquidated a considerable portion of their gold and silver holdings. The story noted that Soros Fund Management purchased gold and silver over the past two years to protect against the Federal Reserve’s response to the risks of deflation. However, Soros now believes that deflationary risks have dissipated significantly, making the rationale for holding positions...
Bullcrap, he new when to take partials.
He will be back so will china and the rest of them.
  • #5,988
  • May 5, 2011 4:47pm May 5, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting Mitchoss
Being farely new to trading im quite dissapointed with myself in yesterdays session, i recieved a margin call and ended up closing my long on silver. After using the demo account for 6months I decided to go live... man i dont think i could have picked a WORSE first week to come into the live game.

(...)

Just looking for ballpark figures, what is a reasonable account size to trade 0.3 lots of gold on and 0.1 lots of silver?
Well, you are right. It was an unlucky timing. But I think you chose the wrong instrument, too. Why don't you try gold first? It has a similar trend direction to silver, but it's less volatile.

For such lot sizes, I would load far over $100,000. But it depends on your strategy. If you have regular trades with pre-defined sizes and some stop loss (as most of the traders here), then you should risk 0.5% of your account on each trade, or even less. Search for some money management tips on the forum, or on www.babypips.com, it may help.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,989
  • May 5, 2011 4:51pm May 5, 2011 4:51pm
Ironic tidbit I found on the net:

Taken from Wikipedia:

Quote
Silver Thursday, was an event that occurred in the silver commodity market on Thursday, 27 March 1980. A steep fall in silver prices led to panic on commodity and future exchanges.
Quote
But on January 7, 1980, in response to the Hunt's accumulation, the exchange rules regarding leverage were changed, when COMEX adopted the "Silver Rule 7" placing heavy restrictions on the purchase of commodities by margin.
Quote
The Hunt Brothers had borrowed heavily to finance their purchases, and as the price began to fall again, dropping over 50% in just four days, they were unable to meet their obligations, causing panic in the markets.

While it may not have necessarily dropped 50% in just four days, it's highly likely that it may reach that figure by tomorrow as people close positions ahead of NFP...I don't even want to think about what may happen if the NFP actually comes out good.

Keep your positions safe and don't marry them.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #5,990
  • May 5, 2011 5:04pm May 5, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting harvest3r
Well, you are right. It was an unlucky timing. But I think you chose the wrong instrument, too. Why don't you try gold first? It has a similar trend direction to silver, but it's less volatile.

For such lot sizes, I would load far over $100,000. But it depends on your strategy. If you have regular trades with pre-defined sizes and some stop loss (as most of the traders here), then you should risk 0.5% of your account on each trade, or even less. Search for some money management tips on the forum, or on www.babypips.com,...
Thank you for your advice. very helpful. I most definitely wont be getting a $100,000 account any time soon so i will stick to small positions on gold. haha
  • #5,991
  • May 5, 2011 5:51pm May 5, 2011 5:51pm
Quoting PhilaTr8er
If anyone has an interest in fundamentals, shout out a question. I am no Ben Bernak, but do have a decent Economics/Finance education. Thanks.
Could you a quick brief on fundamentals/possible outcomes to silver (or metals in general) in response to whether or not the debt ceiling is raised?

Thanks, in advance.

Wile E.
  • #5,992
  • May 5, 2011 7:11pm May 5, 2011 7:11pm
I came up with a new name for my long term silver postion.

Its called "Committing Silvercide" lol.

I am holding and adding until payday, but I am an idiot. The fundamentals look too good. What will the price be at the end of this year or the end of next year?
  • #5,993
  • May 5, 2011 7:14pm May 5, 2011 7:14pm
nice signal to enter long on the 4hr chart for gold?

Mitch
  • #5,994
  • May 5, 2011 7:22pm May 5, 2011 7:22pm
Finally some breath for gold.

Friday is a Green day!
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #5,995
  • May 5, 2011 7:26pm May 5, 2011 7:26pm
At least asia has a heart and tries to get the golden pip fountain going again.
  • #5,996
  • May 5, 2011 8:09pm May 5, 2011 8:09pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
Finally some breath for gold.

Friday is a Green day!
If it survives tomorrows NFP (likely), the longterm uptrend will probably resume and we might see the gold back at $1500 as early as next week. I added longs at $1466 today.
  • #5,997
  • May 5, 2011 8:24pm May 5, 2011 8:24pm
Quoting Wile E
Could you a quick brief on fundamentals/possible outcomes to silver (or metals in general) in response to whether or not the debt ceiling is raised?

Thanks, in advance.

Wile E.
To me, debt ceiling raise is NO BIG ISSUE! It has been raised 70 times in the last 40 years, no exageration. Most people didnt even know it existed until recently. This is a polictical issue raised by republicans in an attempt to bash the democrats before the 2012 presidential bid. (note i am a republican) So smart money knows this and it really should not have dramtic effects on the market; although, of course, it can. I would asign a higher probability to the debt ceiling being raied by at least $1.4T (trillion) in conjunction with spending cuts and deficit reduction rhetoric.

How will the markets interpret this? My guess is bad for ol' USD, good for metals! Again, this is really not a huge issue - the US will never defualt on it's debts; look at what the market is demanding for our debt right now, under 3.3% for 10 yrs! But I feel this gives USD bears something to latch onto and perhaps a further slide in the greenback will contiue course. I am waiting to see how tomorrow shakes out (NFP - most likely will print under trend and concensus) and plan to get long sliver and gold, at bargin prices. Hope this helps, I'd be happy to answer anything else, happy trading.
  • #5,998
  • May 5, 2011 8:43pm May 5, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting Fmfx
If it survives tomorrows NFP (likely), the longterm uptrend will probably resume and we might see the gold back at $1500 as early as next week. I added longs at $1466 today.
what do you mean with NFP?

Non-Farm Employment Change?
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #5,999
  • May 5, 2011 8:53pm May 5, 2011 8:53pm
Quoting PhilaTr8er
Hope this helps, I'd be happy to answer anything else, happy trading.
Helps much!

Thanks!

Wile E
  • #6,000
  • May 5, 2011 9:20pm May 5, 2011 9:20pm
There's the pivot...

1460 dip... Now price - 1488
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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