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  • #5,781
  • May 4, 2011 2:17am May 4, 2011 2:17am
nice study...
Keep it up

Quoting FX4Newbies
Just throwing a thought out there...

I think another bullish move is in the works, but first...

Per the attached chart: If price moves up and tests the teal L-MLH shown by the red arrow, and finds resistance, then the blue HL/WL (warning line) area around 1523.97 could be the next stop. From there (if price goes there) we can see if another bullish setup appears.

Fwiw...

FX4
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #5,782
  • May 4, 2011 2:27am May 4, 2011 2:27am
may bounce from 1540
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #5,783
  • May 4, 2011 2:29am May 4, 2011 2:29am
@beeb: do you believe that the raise in the silver margin requirement alone created this sell-off? Like... many people got margin calls in Comex or somewhere else? If this is the case, and considering that we cannot see any clear fundamental change in the market, we will most probably see silver resuming the trend?

When I see gold, there was no real sell-off. We are now at the levels before the London holidays, so the rally to 1575 was a "fake" (maybe due to low liquidity).

Does it all make sense? If not, which assumptions are wrong in your opinion?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,784
  • May 4, 2011 3:05am May 4, 2011 3:05am
I think the sell off was just an example of fear and greed at work in the market, once they started exiting it snowballed. perhaps the margin change was the catalyst..?

Anyway for someone waiting for a pullback to get a fresh trade on the go this is just what ive been waiting for, 40 looks like an obvious place to be a buyer in silver and i will wait to see if price want to form a little base here and show some nice PA.

I would have liked to have seen gold retrace a bit more with 1500 being retested, will just have to see what happens.

will try and post my trade if and when it occurs..

h2
  • #5,785
  • May 4, 2011 3:16am May 4, 2011 3:16am
The direction of price of anything is determined by the price of what is being bought and sold goes for and the balance between buyers and sellers. Forced sellers can crash price.

I see the margin they say the margin increased 13%.

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-sil...margin-change/

When the Hunt bros got into trouble it was because margins were increased.

If even only a small percentage are forced into the market because of this, on top of those that would be there anyway, this is likely to have a dramatic effect because you set up an imbalance.

A rapidly moving price will draw others into market and quickly there is a big sell off.
  • #5,786
  • May 4, 2011 3:24am May 4, 2011 3:24am
Quoting harvest3r
@beeb: do you believe that the raise in the silver margin requirement alone created this sell-off? Like... many people got margin calls in Comex or somewhere else? If this is the case, and considering that we cannot see any clear fundamental change in the market, we will most probably see silver resuming the trend?

When I see gold, there was no real sell-off. We are now at the levels before the London holidays, so the rally to 1575 was a "fake" (maybe due to low liquidity).

Does it all make sense? If not, which assumptions...

Check out some of the more conspiratorial websites and you will see that the silver shorts had a desire/need to bring the market down.....

I think things were overbought and could benefit from a pause etc and I'm sure that it is mere coincidence that we are approaching NFP....lol

Am not rushing into any new medium/longer term positions - just trading the short term stuff....

beeb
  • #5,787
  • May 4, 2011 3:24am May 4, 2011 3:24am
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe...ASMarch24.html

The “initial” margin for speculators in the 5,000-ounce silver contract will rise to $11,745 from $11,138. The margin for hedge/members and “maintenance” of speculative positions will rise to $8,700 from $8,250.

There are some over reached people around if that is blowing them up.
  • #5,788
  • May 4, 2011 3:45am May 4, 2011 3:45am
Quoting six gun
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe...ASMarch24.html

The “initial” margin for speculators in the 5,000-ounce silver contract will rise to $11,745 from $11,138. The margin for hedge/members and “maintenance” of speculative positions will rise to $8,700 from $8,250.

There are some over reached people around if that is blowing them up.
That's a bit old mate. The CME have increased margins 3 times in just the last week, let alone since that announcement. There is no doubt they are absolutely trying to suppress the price of Silver and based off the last few days action, they are succeeding. Not saying it will stay that way but every time price goes back up they hike margins. Pretty disgraceful to be fair.
  • #5,789
  • May 4, 2011 3:58am May 4, 2011 3:58am
Quoting Bluemeanie
That's a bit old mate. The CME have increased margins 3 times in just the last week, let alone since that announcement. There is no doubt they are absolutely trying to suppress the price of Silver and based off the last few days action, they are succeeding. Not saying it will stay that way but every time price goes back up they hike margins. Pretty disgraceful to be fair.
Yep you are right

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and...nce-margins-12

I don't agree it is disgraceful.
If I had control of the silver market I would like to see a nice steady rise in price. Not some super mad acceleration which would only crash. A super mad rise will always crash. Silver was rising quickly but in the last couple of weeks or so I believe it was rising too fast for its own good.
If investors can see a nice steady rise in the market they will be attracted to the market. This will give price a firm basis to go forward. Mad speculation damages a stock/commodity. Steady progress, steady as she goes is the better way for concrete progress.
  • #5,790
  • May 4, 2011 4:17am May 4, 2011 4:17am
Quoting six gun
Yep you are right

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and...nce-margins-12

I don't agree it is disgraceful.
If I had control of the silver market I would like to see a nice steady rise in price. Not some super mad acceleration which would only crash. A super mad rise will always crash. Silver was rising quickly but in the last couple of weeks or so I believe it was rising too fast for its own good.
If investors can see a nice steady rise in the market they will be attracted...
First of all, the exchange quite literally has no business interfering in the "supposed free markets." I say supposed of course based on their intervention. In fact, they make money off volume and therefore this little endevour of theirs doesn't really make any sense unless of course there is more than meets the eye. Which I have no doubt there is.

Secondly, imagine you buy a number of contracts from the exchange, then the next day that same exchange deliberately increases the margins to suppress the price of those same contracts you just recently bought in good faith on their exchange. How would you feel about that?

Depending on your margin situation you may even have to let go of some of your contracts anyway but it doesn't matter as the exchange is deliberately interfering in the price anyway, meaning you're playing a rigged game and in all likelihood, the contracts you bought will lose value for no reason other than their intervention. If they are not successful on the first try they try again, then again. The question isn't whether or not it's disgraceful, because it is, the question is why and who is benefiting from this.
  • #5,791
  • May 4, 2011 4:24am May 4, 2011 4:24am
"breakouts & confirmations"

sounds nice....it could be a name for a movie
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  • #5,792
  • Edited 4:26am May 4, 2011 4:24am | Edited 4:26am
Not sure of the validity. But, thought was some interesting points that I haven't seen mention yet.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2670...r-next-stop-62

"The most important piece of news on the silver market has been missed by many ... that is the decision by Bolivia NOT to nationalize its mines. While margin increases by the CME (CME), MF Global (MF), and Think or Swim likely exacerbated the sell-off, it was not the cause of the decline."
  • #5,793
  • May 4, 2011 4:35am May 4, 2011 4:35am
Quoting Bluemeanie
First of all, the exchange quite literally has no business interfering in the "supposed free markets." I say supposed of course based on their intervention. In fact, they make money off volume and therefore this little endevour of theirs doesn't really make any sense unless of course there is more than meets the eye. Which I have no doubt there is.

Secondly, imagine you buy a number of contracts from the exchange, then the next day that same exchange deliberately increases the margins to suppress the price of those same contracts you just recently...
Comex know better than you and I what is going on in the silver market.

Look at the daily and weekly chart since QE2 was announced.
They have "allowed" price to climb like nobody's business. Traders I know who are not into metals come to the chart and say it is crazy.
The pundits were saying it was crazy.
Silver was well over extended.
Price starts accelerating like mad in the last 2-3 weeks.
Whatever happens it will all end in tears for someone.

Yes this is intervention. As I say if I had some control over the silver market I would cool it off. Not to help out the crooks at the bullion banks but for the longer term stability of the market.

You can either let silver go, knowing at $50 or $60 it will blow up, or you can blow out some of the mad speculative inflation in price.

It is like the property market. Hey lets allow 150% mortgages and no proof of income or 50X multiple. Property prices explode. People get hurt and then they say it has damaged the property market.

This does not help the vast majority who want buy a pocket of silver dollars or make a few $ on silver some other way.

Sure it will hurt some people. Whatever happens someone gets hurt in a zero sum market.

Did you get on the wrong end of price in all this???
  • #5,794
  • May 4, 2011 4:51am May 4, 2011 4:51am
@all: great insights! I thought of making a wrap of all that, but the text would be too long. I will just add some comments, little by little.

People are talking about a CRASH in silver. Which crash? We are now back to the rates of... TWO WEEKS AGO!!! This must be seen in perspective. Even if we would reach $30, what is extreme, that would be the rate from... THREE MONTHS AGO! On the long term view, that's not much. What sixgun wrote is great: we are just correcting from a "super mad acceleration", so there is a chance that we have a reasonable price right now. Unless we get below $35 or $30, we are far from a turn in the underlying trend.

Bluemeanie is right in saying that too much intervention can harm the market. But maybe it only helps people to get a better entry point for their longs... If the trend is up, it will go up - the "big shorts" didn't avoid a rally from $18 to $48. Sometimes I think that the price of my bullion coins were subsidised by JPM, otherwise they would be even more expensive

@beeb: those conspirational websites have a good argumentation, but personally I think they exaggerate a bit... From everything you read, is there any argumentation that silver was put down because NFP will be bad and silver will jump? Something like that?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,795
  • May 4, 2011 4:58am May 4, 2011 4:58am
Quoting harvest3r


@beeb: those conspirational websites have a good argumentation, but personally I think they exaggerate a bit... From everything you read, is there any argumentation that silver was put down because NFP will be bad and silver will jump? Something like that?

harvest

suggest you take the time to listen to this :

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor..._Douglass.html

the argument goes that the volatility around NFP is the time used to take down the market...

beeb
  • #5,796
  • May 4, 2011 5:17am May 4, 2011 5:17am
Quoting PhilaTr8er
Agreed....
You might want to check out how stochastics and moving averages have performed with gold for the last couple of years. On Daily charts look at the support that the 150 MA has given also check out the quicker 14,3,3 stochs and the slower 60,3,3 ones.....

beeb
  • #5,797
  • May 4, 2011 6:25am May 4, 2011 6:25am
Quoting beeb
You might want to check out how stochastics and moving averages have performed with gold for the last couple of years. On Daily charts look at the support that the 150 MA has given also check out the quicker 14,3,3 stochs and the slower 60,3,3 ones.....
Thanks beeb, will do. Any and all other technical/charting advice is welcome!

Fundamental view from my eyes - Gold will resume it's uptrend soon, as investors and traders seek shelter from the fiat money game. Central banks around the world are in various phases of monetary policy, but most importantly, the US, is still very loose, with a hint of inflation. Both are good for gold statistically and historically. My feeling is QE2 will roll off as planned in the end of June, but the FED may continue to invest MBS/Treasury coupons and principal once the investments mature. End of June early July may provide a major headwind for gold if the Fed gets 'hawkish' in its langauge to the holi polli. Until then, the price action wil speak of course, but i see at least 1600 by June.
  • #5,798
  • May 4, 2011 6:35am May 4, 2011 6:35am
Quoting khizer
nice study...
Keep it up
Thanks Khizer. Will do what I can given my current commitments . Don't know where the time goes sometimes.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,799
  • May 4, 2011 7:48am May 4, 2011 7:48am
Quoting PhilaTr8er
Thanks beeb, will do. Any and all other technical/charting advice is welcome!
When it comes to gold I'm a firm believer in using 8 period RSI, it has performed very well, with 8 & 21 period EMA's on daily charts.

I've added to my silver position at 40.70 but i'm still very wary of further selling. Silver has found support at the 8 period weekly EMA and is respecting it but the Monthly PA is a long way from support.

My weekly gold chart shows PA even further away from EMA support so i'll be trailing tight stops in fear of a rapid correction back to 1500 area.
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  • #5,800
  • May 4, 2011 7:53am May 4, 2011 7:53am
Quoting Bluemeanie
There is no doubt they are absolutely trying to suppress the
..... the speculation so they don't have a huge collapse and scare away those who would trade this market over the long term.

If only the Nasdaq did the same in 1999 (or earlier) the dot com bubble might not have dot bombed.

Just one example of why exchange traded futures have their act together better than over the counter or shady spot markets and even some equity exchanges.
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