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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #5,441
  • Apr 28, 2011 2:17am Apr 28, 2011 2:17am
Quoting khizer
you should waite for retracment, and dont be worries market never move out its always under your finguer tips, just one thing requred from you "BE LIVE" to trade, here are lot of opportunities always at corner.

1530 is not a retracment zone, it will be retracment zone if price hold here for 2 more days than you can enter lol

in short waite for better entry.
well said be live to trade & no worry to have a better opportunities .

but it is a retracement zone more or less as per development of waves , usdx may be loosing stream right now & can be limted here in gold too .real retracement after the next wave 5th up end wherever . lets see .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #5,442
  • Apr 28, 2011 2:46am Apr 28, 2011 2:46am
Quoting Fmfx
I think even my fish in the tank know the "long-term" trend is bullish with gold but some "experienced" traders do not mind making a few hundred additional bucks daily from shorting gold in addition to their long-term LONG positions.

Have you ever asked yourself why all Forex software have both "BUY" and "SELL" buttons for GOLD?

You may call it correction, sell-off, retracement, profit-taking, London fake, Bernanke underwear, etc but it is in the charts: GOLD price does go down and if you CAN and have the KNOW HOW, can make extra profit...
, doing great with shorts (only shorts), 1536 looks next possible level to me

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #5,443
  • Edited 3:14am Apr 28, 2011 2:53am | Edited 3:14am
Siver still pretty difficult to chart but this 240min SI seems reasonable - I like the validation from the lower parallel touches and then the upper parallel resistance becoming support....

http://www.screencast.com/t/7gpUPEn56o


And Xtrade my comment re watching 1588 level is off the back of a couple of abcd's that coincide there - one going back to late 2008. It doesn't necessarily mean it will reverse there, just that it may prove to be an area of resistance albeit temporary.....

beeb
  • #5,444
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:14am Apr 28, 2011 3:14am
Quoting beeb
Siver still pretty difficult to chart but this 240min SI seems resonable - I like the validation from the lower parallel touches and then the upper parallel resistance becoming support....

http://www.screencast.com/t/7gpUPEn56o


And Xtrade my comment re watching 1588 level is off the back of a couple of abcd's that coincide there - one going back to late 2008. It doesn't necessarily mean it will reverse there, just that it may prove to be an area of resistance albeit temporary.....

beeb
Thanks for the chart beeb
  • #5,445
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:27am Apr 28, 2011 3:27am
Dear Brother! please have a look at this pictuer.

Here are two trend line, price working on 1st trend line i draw.

Yes i am waiting and i indicate this 5th wave as you know.

but from this level, its higher of high. and looking some retracment.

please make some coment on this pictuer.


Quoting fontu
well said be live to trade & no worry to have a better opportunities .

but it is a retracement zone more or less as per development of waves , usdx may be loosing stream right now & can be limted here in gold too .real retracement after the next wave 5th up end wherever . lets see .
fontu
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Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #5,446
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:35am Apr 28, 2011 3:35am
I'm not trading silver but I have a fork for it

I drew it on H1. It touched the lower line at the B1-B4 points, the median line at the A1-A2 points and tried to find some support/resistance around the C1-C5 points at the lower quartile. Now it's resting right above the upper quartile.

The funny thing is: Silver got out of the fork on Monday and is back now; Gold did the opposite, it respected the upper line on Monday but is floating above it today...
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"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,447
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:35am Apr 28, 2011 3:35am
khizer

not sure who your brother is - hope you don't mind me replying.....

1. personally i give no credence to elliot wave theory - too many ways to view it and always right after the event imo
2. you have found valid lines of resistance
3. if you moved your lower line to the next peak starting in june you would have an equally valid line of resistance, which having been breached might form support.

hope that helps



beeb
  • #5,448
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:44am Apr 28, 2011 3:44am
Quoting harvest3r
I'm not trading silver but I have a fork for it

I drew it on H1. It touched the lower line at the B1-B4 points, the median line at the A1-A2 points and tried to find some support/resistance around the C1-C5 points at the lower quartile. Now it's resting right above the upper quartile.

The funny thing is: Silver got out of the fork on Monday and is back now; Gold did the opposite, it respected the upper line on Monday but is floating above it today...
harvest - i'm assuming that's off the 24th feb A....If you draw an outer quartile it captures the price quite well....nice one
the reason i showed my earlier one was the bullish tone of resistance becoming support...that line now becomes the one that the bears have to breach imo

beeb
  • #5,449
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:58am Apr 28, 2011 3:58am
Quoting beeb
harvest - i'm assuming that's off the 24th feb A....If you draw an outer quartile it captures the price quite well....nice one
the reason i showed my earlier one was the bullish tone of resistance becoming support...that line now becomes the one that the bears have to breach imo

beeb
Price is certainly sitting on $48 ledge.
On the 4H chart there are wicks going down through 48.00 but closures above.

I kind of see them like putting down roots into the soil.
If you look at the charts on the shorter time frames where price rests for a time there can be "roots" going down which signals where are plenty of buys underneath rejecting downward moves in price. Price moves on up.

On other occasions there will be lots of wicks going up, where sell orders sit above price and eventually price moves down. They look like short spikey hair to me, but whatever you might call them these signs are based on resting orders above and below price.

So price is sitting on $48.
It is putting down roots - there are buy orders underneath making down moves more difficult
$48 is a BRN
The second upper warning line on beeb's silver fork appears to be providing support (there are two lines above the fork, these are the seconds and fourth warning lines, the first and third have been missed out).

Assuming it holds I would expect price to march up that warning line. The jump in price was very big. There is a risk bulls will lock in profits and push price down again at least a little way, but if there are plenty of buy orders sitting under $48, a downwards move will be inhibited.

ps I have never followed Elliott Wave Theory.
I can accept the psychology of the market, the energy in pitchforks must be a psychological energy, there is no other energy getting people to place orders. However the Wave Theory is a bit woolly. From what I have seen with forks you can not unusually be within a few pips of price turning and in a predictive way. Elliott is more retrospective. You are expecting an up move but don't know exactly when or how far, or even if.
Not to be dismissed but I see more accurate ways of predicting price.
  • #5,450
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:01am Apr 28, 2011 4:01am
six gun - if you like that kind of thing, and haven't done so, suggest you check out VSA..

beeb
  • #5,451
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:08am Apr 28, 2011 4:08am
Quoting beeb
harvest - i'm assuming that's off the 24th feb A
Exactly.

Quoting beeb
If you draw an outer quartile it captures the price quite well....
Right! Very nice.

Now a question: what is your reaction when you see the current situation? Silver is building some support around $48, close to the upper quartile. Would you go long? Would you trade this at all? If not, what would be your strategy?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,452
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:28am Apr 28, 2011 4:28am
six gun: I suggest you check out VSA as beeb suggested, as well as Wyckoff method . Both use volume to explain chart movement/psychology .
  • #5,453
  • Edited 4:40am Apr 28, 2011 4:28am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting beeb
six gun - if you like that kind of thing, and haven't done so, suggest you check out VSA..

beeb
VSA?
Volume Spread Analysis?

Yet more to learn.
The more you learn, the more you understand and know....

To beeb

XTrade mentioned USD/CHF
I gleaned a weekly fork from Paul C which shows price very close to the lower parallel.
So I am half expecting a bounce - but may be price will run down the lower parallel for some time, the angle of attack is quite steep, price could just blast through. If I had already been short I would be lightening up.

Practically the situation is the USD will continue to drift.

The Bernanke cannot say anything.

If he says to Mr and Mrs America they have been living the high life on borrowed money from China, the dollar in their pockets is living on borrowed time and their government has wasted trillions on wars it should never have got involved in, bankrupting the country. This will crash the markets; so he goes blah blah blah and hopes it improves or else he retires to a fat cat pin strip gangster job before the roof caves in.
  • #5,454
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:47am Apr 28, 2011 4:47am
Quoting six gun
If you look at the charts on the shorter time frames where price rests for a time there can be "roots" going down which signals where are plenty of buys underneath rejecting downward moves in price. Price moves on up.
I also think like that, it's kind of instinctive. But I couldn't build a science out of it. But it makes sense.

If you are interested on VSA, you can take a look at the VSA threads. Somewhere over there I got a link for a book called "Master the Markets". If you want the link for the PDF, just PM me. It's interesting, though too advanced for me I'm reading it slowly. It has some good general insights about trades, it's not only about VSA.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,455
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:05am Apr 28, 2011 5:05am
harvest3r, six gun: you might want to check out this links:

Wyckoff Method:
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/

VSA:
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f151/

I think Master the Markets is a very good book, probably the only book you'd need for VSA to be honest. I also recommend checking out this thread to see some more chart examples: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=241760

Another thing of note is Todd Krueger's Wyckoff Candle Volume Analysis, you can check it out at http://traderscode.com/ (Todd Krueger was part of TradeGuider (VSA) before this I think.) I recommend subscribing to his free videos, they're really good.

I'm also learning VSA/Wyckoff as we speak, and one thing I've learnt is it's not a science, there's no hard and fast rule. The most important thing is to look at the volume relatively. Never look at one bar and decide something. Always compare it to the previous bars.

Sorry to go off-topic!
  • #5,456
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:15am Apr 28, 2011 5:15am
Quoting Wysie
harvest3r, six gun: you might want to check out this links:

Wyckoff Method:
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/

VSA:
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f151/

I think Master the Markets is a very good book, probably the only book you'd need for VSA to be honest. I also recommend checking out this thread to see some more chart examples: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=241760

Another thing of note is Todd Krueger's Wyckoff Candle Volume Analysis, you can check it out at http://traderscode.com/...
Top man Wysie.

None of this is off topic.
Methods of trading can never be off topic unless they are irrational and the proponents are off their heads. They go into my ignore list.

beeb mentioned trading using pitchforks - now several here are at least considering these.

Thanks for the links. I am looking at the VSA right now!
  • #5,457
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:21am Apr 28, 2011 5:21am
Quoting harvest3r
Exactly.



Right! Very nice.

Now a question: what is your reaction when you see the current situation? Silver is building some support around $48, close to the upper quartile. Would you go long? Would you trade this at all? If not, what would be your strategy?
harvest

that's a really difficult question to answer...I would say that I wouldn't want to be taking an INITIAL position off these forks in silver given how steep the recent move has been. However if you have a position from lower down once you see that the forks are working they will give you an idea of where to expect support and resistance. Accordingly you can add or lighten in those areas. As a corollary of that once you start to see support failing to hold price you can start to look to see if there is a down trend forming which may lead to a larger trend change....

hope that helps even though it doesn't say what I would do now....

beeb
  • #5,458
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:31am Apr 28, 2011 5:31am
Quoting beeb
harvest

that's a really difficult question to answer...I would say that I wouldn't want to be taking an INITIAL position off these forks in silver given how steep the recent move has been. However if you have a position from lower down once you see that the forks are working they will give you an idea of where to expect support and resistance. Accordingly you can add or lighten in those areas. As a corollary of that once you start to see support failing to hold price you can start to look to see if there is a down trend forming which may lead...
Well you do say.

1) If you are already long from a lower price you hang tight. Price is developing support on the fork (also at a big round number - there may be some fibs hanging around as well but not checked) - there are a few roots going down too! (LOL)

2) The rise in price has been VERY steep. It is begging a correction, so you would be wary of new positions right now. There are plenty in the market sitting on a profit and they would not think twice to press the sell button if they thought the market was out to grab some back.

We also have the Royal wedding bank holiday and another bank holiday next week. There may be folk who will just close their positions on account of this.

Price could hang in there, but that big up spike is like an elastic band. It will weaken with time but it is pretty tight now and could give a tug back to lower prices.

My day for analogies - elastic bands, roots, spiky hair....
  • #5,459
  • Edited 5:55am Apr 28, 2011 5:33am | Edited 5:55am
Gold has been fighting along the green L-MLH. Making higher highs and higher lows (not majorly so) but still doing so. Time will tell if it pushes from here or retraces. It started losing momentum around April 19th.

Have a good trading day.

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,460
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:55am Apr 28, 2011 5:55am
I just thought I'd put up this something to show my roots and spiky hair, I'll call them shoots instead then it is all botanical.

This is not a system but it can sometimes be a handy sign in the right places.

This is a 5M chart of USD/CHF - just this was in front of me.

As you can see on the left of the chart there are a number of wicks going down to 0.87000.
Round number (there are lots on the chart but this is also a 5M chart)
Price is being rejected and rejected from this level. The root wicks stand out. The level is firm ground.
Price moves up once it has developed its roots.

Next it moves to 0.87200
Again it sits on this level a while.
There are several doji.
Shoots and roots but there is a pin bar. The only time price puts down a root piercing 0.87200 and it gets rejects straight off.

The roots are winning out. There are orders sitting under 0.87200 sending price back up.
Price moves on up.

Some charts shows this more than others. I have found this observation helpful sometimes.
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