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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #5,421
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:46pm Apr 27, 2011 7:46pm
Weekly Xau-Usd chart below.

Think price could be approaching an area to be watched closely. Could blast through since it is in a strong uptrend. Lots of energy forces converging around the blue HL area...WL, U-MLH and ML. If it blows through great. If not, beware.

My 2 cents.

FX4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau-usd apr 27-11-wk.gif Size: 21 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,422
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:52pm Apr 27, 2011 7:52pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Weekly Xau-Usd chart below.

Think price could be approaching an area to be watched closely. Could blast through since it is in a strong uptrend. Lots of energy forces converging around the blue HL area...WL, U-MLH and ML. If it blows through great. If not, beware.

My 2 cents.

FX4
Pitchforks are interesting and I understand the definition of a pitchfork and how to apply it the chart for the most part. What I don't understand is what the core concept or idea of the pitchfork is...

Also, now that we are headed into uncharted territory, I'm not sure how valid those resistance areas will be respected, unless pitchforks are somehow capturing some psychological aspect of a move. I don't know...
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,423
  • Edited 9:11pm Apr 27, 2011 8:03pm | Edited 9:11pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Pitchforks are interesting and I understand the definition of a pitchfork and how to apply it the chart for the most part. What I don't understand is what the core concept or idea of the pitchfork is...

Also, now that we are headed into uncharted territory, I'm not sure how valid those resistance areas will be respected, unless pitchforks are somehow capturing some psychological aspect of a move. I don't know...
Hello LasVahGoose,

The core concept is based on Newton's Third Law: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The Pitchfork is a tool that "measures" the reaction that will come from a line of force generated by a price swing. The swing that is "responsible" for generating the next price move is the PA from Pivots 2 to 3 of the fork.

No line in the market will be respected at any time unless the majority of traders respect it, so a psychological aspect is always involved. The Pitchfork "works" because price action is considered a vector as it possess magnitude and direction, so the laws of Physics apply.

I did a video in December that went over some interesting points and applications. You can view it here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=242133&page=72. Go to Post 1072. The instructions to view it are in the first sentence.

Hope the video answers a few more questions for you.

Take care,

FX4

P.S. Maybe I should mention here that price will go to the ML (the median line...the one in the middle of the fork) 80% of the time when pivots from immediate/neighboring swings are used to draw the fork.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,424
  • Apr 27, 2011 8:12pm Apr 27, 2011 8:12pm
Almost at target!!!
Who's in the AUD/USD Flag trade from before???

Swissy is DUMPING pips finally!
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,425
  • Edited 11:02pm Apr 27, 2011 8:16pm | Edited 11:02pm
Added a Fib. The 261.8% is still above. Maybe price will blast through trying to go there, if it is a strong enough psychological level for traders. At least we have another idea of what to watch for where using Pitchforks.

Second chart is a close up on H4 using a more finely-tuned pivot location. That Pivot 2 is slightly higher and would position the fork a little differently. Previous chart uses pivot at blue arrow for Pivot 2.

All the best,

FX4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,426
  • Edited 10:40pm Apr 27, 2011 9:57pm | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting lilpip
I dont know but Im with the trend and looking at the weekly chart my bias is up from 1481 and looking at the daily, up from 1498-1503.
weekly
1523
1481
1439
silvr weekly
48.30
43.77
39.24
daily close above and move down and bounce up from 1523 (weekly highs) is noted, lets see if she'll hold and have a weekly close above as she sure acts like she wants to head north.
silvers daily close @ 48.30 (weekly highs retest) is noted she acts like shes letting gold take the lead and will just follow .
  • #5,427
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:04pm Apr 27, 2011 10:04pm
I hope some of you took my advice here!
Bernark Really Dropped the USD.

Swissy is on the Verge of a new Historical low.
EUR and GBP are steadily rising small dips being bought

Huge day for AUD high to low so far 175 pips and counting.

Did anyone hop on board - I've been in some of these trades for days now,
but still riding all today's entries.

Silver up 3.50 for the day (24 hrs) and counting!

Quoting XTrade
NOTES: No change in rates -Moderate Pace " recovery " and inflation RISING commodityis up//// continued QE 2
elevated unemployment

SHORT USD BUY ALL MAJORS BE FAST in and OUT


LONG GOLD and SILVER
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,428
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:06pm Apr 27, 2011 10:06pm
Not sure if I will make it to London tonight, but I will be expecting the classic London Headfake selloff on open to shake things up then buying back at a lower price and adding another 100 pips to the pairs.

We'll see....

edit: most of my target areas have been met. I posted the AUD flag in the AUD thread, and revised the target after to 1.950 and second target to 1.1000

May cash some out now and rest.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,429
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:09pm Apr 27, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting XTrade
I hope some of you took my advice here!
Bernark Really Dropped the USD
They panned out pretty good! Unfortunately, I didn't take any trades today, not sure why, but it definitely was a great day to play against the dollar. Couldn't ask for as close to a sure thing in Forex trading as one can get.

Low risk high reward day, thanks to Helicopter Ben.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,430
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:22pm Apr 27, 2011 10:22pm
I so glad that i had closed my initial short positions.
The hoping to get that great reversal has been very frustrating.
Imagine that if i am still hoping and now i will be very regreat agin and again.

Strategy:
1) Still holding to the trend.
2) Look out for opinion on those with high reputation as a gauge mark

thanks all
  • #5,431
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:46pm Apr 27, 2011 10:46pm
All day trades closed. Longer terms still running.

Looks like it might be correction time.
AUD was on FIRE! My target of 1.1000 is only 50 appx pips away. Longer term target is 1.50

If we correct a bit LDN might just light it back up. no way to tell.

Thanks Bernanke for making my week!
Here ya go on Uncle Sam!
http://joycecollingwood.files.wordpr...-original1.jpg
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,432
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:51pm Apr 27, 2011 10:51pm
Quoting jinsen
I so glad that i had closed my initial short positions.
The hoping to get that great reversal has been very frustrating.
ya never know we do have a new month coming up and she just might look for that monthly support.
then again, she just might move up off of the weekly highs looking for next months highs.
keep the faith
  • #5,433
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:57pm Apr 27, 2011 10:57pm
Don't you GET IT YET.

WHY oh WHY of ALL f-ing days would you short GOLD when the chairman of the FEDERAL RESERVE is on TV talking about INFLATION rising and things "moving slowly"

Yes trading can be simple once you hear those words you click

BUY x3 and sit back and watch.
Today was a GIFT.

I have stated it time and time again. The Month were we made 3 Consecutive record Highs then corrected largely IS OVER. WE are in a new Price structure and a NEW Hundred USD trade zone.

Regardless of the fact that you as a new Gold trader should be following the Trend because it is your friend, not thinking you can outsmart it by shorting a top you picked and making millions on a couple day trades.

--------------------------

I hate to burst all your bubbles but the trend is UP and has Been for quite some time. Until that changes the money is in BUYING.




Quoting jinsen
I so glad that i had closed my initial short positions.
The hoping to get that great reversal has been very frustrating.
Imagine that if i am still hoping and now i will be very regreat agin and again.

Strategy:
1) Still holding to the trend.
2) Look out for opinion on those with high reputation as a gauge mark

thanks all
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,434
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:59pm Apr 27, 2011 10:59pm
I expect support at 1496 thru 80 zones and buys set for 1500 area.

We are already 1/4 of the way paved to 1600.

The next real target is 2000

Quoting lilpip
ya never know we do have a new month coming up and she just might look for that monthly support.
then again, she just might move up off of the weekly highs looking for next months highs.
keep the faith
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,435
  • Apr 27, 2011 11:04pm Apr 27, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting XTrade
All day trades closed. Longer terms still running.
Thanks Bernanke for making my week!
Here ya go on Uncle Sam!
http://joycecollingwood.files.wordpr...-original1.jpg
this is the runner up picture of the week, a close second to that picture of silver embedded in my mind going up and up and up and up.
  • #5,436
  • Edited 11:21pm Apr 27, 2011 11:10pm | Edited 11:21pm
Quoting XTrade
I expect support at 1496 thru 80 zones and buys set for 1500 area.

We are already 1/4 of the way paved to 1600.

The next real target is 2000
I hear ya, I'm expecting silver to come down for next push up if were going to push above $51.
the way im seeing it is like last year when we broke 21.98, 30.98 was next target and then we had our move down to 26.00 (quarterly support).
when we broke 34.60, 51.00 was the next.
so we will keep an eye on the dailys and weeklys and let the charts tell us.
  • #5,437
  • Apr 28, 2011 12:57am Apr 28, 2011 12:57am
I'm still a newbie, yesterday i learn a lot.

I missed the move. I setup plan, but i do not enter order when price hit support trend instead of waiting for 127.2% retracement ( 1500 area ). Price up like rocket.

Now i'm wonder when will i can enter Long position ?? Price is high now. In my weekly chart, my next target is 1560. Should i enter now or wait for retracement?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 24 KB
Keep Simple...!
  • #5,438
  • Apr 28, 2011 1:32am Apr 28, 2011 1:32am
you should waite for retracment, and dont be worries market never move out its always under your finguer tips, just one thing requred from you "BE LIVE" to trade, here are lot of opportunities always at corner.

1530 is not a retracment zone, it will be retracment zone if price hold here for 2 more days than you can enter lol

in short waite for better entry.

Quoting kotlt
I'm still a newbie, yesterday i learn a lot.

I missed the move. I setup plan, but i do not enter order when price hit support trend instead of waiting for 127.2% retracement ( 1500 area ). Price up like rocket.

Now i'm wonder when will i can enter Long position ?? Price is high now. In my weekly chart, my next target is 1560. Should i enter now or wait for retracement?
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #5,439
  • Apr 28, 2011 1:37am Apr 28, 2011 1:37am
Quoting XTrade
AUD was on FIRE! My target of 1.1000 is only 50 appx pips away. Longer term target is 1.50]
LOL
  • #5,440
  • Apr 28, 2011 1:46am Apr 28, 2011 1:46am
Quoting XTrade
Don't you GET IT YET.

WHY oh WHY of ALL f-ing days would you short GOLD when the chairman of the FEDERAL RESERVE is on TV talking about INFLATION rising and things "moving slowly"NG.
I think even my fish in the tank know the "long-term" trend is bullish with gold but some "experienced" traders do not mind making a few hundred additional bucks daily from shorting gold in addition to their long-term LONG positions.

Have you ever asked yourself why all Forex software have both "BUY" and "SELL" buttons for GOLD?

You may call it correction, sell-off, retracement, profit-taking, London fake, Bernanke underwear, etc but it is in the charts: GOLD price does go down and if you CAN and have the KNOW HOW, can make extra profit from these falls too...
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