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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #5,041
  • Apr 22, 2011 8:58am Apr 22, 2011 8:58am
To the guy I quoted about spreads,

I just checked an MT4 broker I use as a demo for testing, they are quoting

4 USD spread for GOLD and
1 USD spread for silver

Normal spreads from this broker is
50 cents Gold
and 5 cents silver
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,042
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:13am Apr 22, 2011 9:13am
Quoting XTrade
Sounds good. Everyone here trades differently. I keep meaning to write a page on how I trade......

Check the first page there are some links there that will take you around.
Also in the beginning it was only me posting for several weeks.

Now we seem to have a steady bunch of regulars who are posting ideas, charts, etc.

We are all here really to pass the time trading, exchange views ideas and info.
Hi XTrade,

Decided to post a chart here with a fork so non-fork traders can get an understanding of what and why if I make a comment later on.

Price is now at the red SH (sliding parallel) where it could find support. If price breaks the green line, the L-MLH (lower median line parallel), and holds, then comes back to retest it as resistance, there could be some selling. Green line is a line in the sand so to speak.

If price goes above the red U-MLH and beyond the darker red SH, staying above the green L-MLH it could mean more upward moves. That concludes my Fork 101 .

I added the Stochastic here to give some traders a feel for where price might be. Now at the 50 level. I suppose other Stoch users have there own settings.

Will observe how this plays out .

All the best.

FX4

P.S. Will read some more of the links at the beginning.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,043
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:30am Apr 22, 2011 9:30am
Quoting XTrade
So as far as gold and silver, here we can actually go to a store and just buy the physical product, in bullion or coin. When the price hit 7 bucks an oz smart money got long physical and paper, this was in 2008 and GOld was also 700. Meanwhile platinum actually Dipped BELOW the price of Gold!
This was around the 800s. There was a massive silver shortage.

Goose, do you mind posting some of the videos?
Yeah, I was a little late to the game buying silver at 12-17 and gold at 600-800. LOL. Thank goodness for all those "Conspiracy Theory" websites and talk shows saying to buy while CNN was telling everyone these investments were junk. Remember the Gold bubble at 720? LOL

Here are a few videos. I just did a search in for '3 phases of a bull market' and started watching and reading.

.
Inserted Video

Inserted Video

Inserted Video
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,044
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:32am Apr 22, 2011 9:32am
Investopia is a pretty good website for looking up terms, I'm sure most people know about it, but in case you never heard of it. It is a good starting point anytime you run across a term you are not familiar with.

.
http://www.investopedia.com/universi...Dowtheory3.asp
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,045
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:49am Apr 22, 2011 9:49am
Quoting beeb
Remember London (the biggest market) is closed for easter - imho not very advisable to trade metals today even if you find an open market - spreads too wide and too susceptible to swings on relatively low volumes. personally won't do anything until Tuesday when London kicks in again....

beeb
I closed out on Thursday. No point in holding a position Friday - Monday with all that could happen and then to find the market has moved massively. Could be in my favour but could be against me, so I closed out and can relax.
  • #5,046
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:57am Apr 22, 2011 9:57am
here's a 240 min GC with a couple of duelling forks using the same coordinates. There is also an abcd which is perhaps providing resistance.....


http://www.screencast.com/t/ozQPaaBxB


beeb
  • #5,047
  • Apr 22, 2011 10:07am Apr 22, 2011 10:07am
Quoting XTrade
To the guy I quoted about spreads,

I just checked an MT4 broker I use as a demo for testing, they are quoting

4 USD spread for GOLD and
1 USD spread for silver

Normal spreads from this broker is
50 cents Gold
and 5 cents silver
OMG $1 for silver LOL
I think I am being swindled at 3 cents.
  • #5,048
  • Edited 12:03pm Apr 22, 2011 11:52am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting beeb
here's a 240 min GC with a couple of duelling forks using the same coordinates. There is also an abcd which is perhaps providing resistance.....


http://www.screencast.com/t/ozQPaaBxB


beeb
We'll see if it (the 100Fib level) causes price to fall outside the green fork I drew. Interesting corner at the moment.

Nice forks and Schiff . Your AB=CD price level is close to where we can get a turn if it provides resistance.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,049
  • Apr 22, 2011 11:55am Apr 22, 2011 11:55am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Will see if it causes price to fall outside the green fork I drew. Interesting corner at the moment.

Nice forks and Schiff .

FX4

Thanks FX4 - they've been paying the bills for a while now....

beeb
  • #5,050
  • Apr 22, 2011 11:56am Apr 22, 2011 11:56am
Quoting beeb
Thanks FX4 - they've been paying the bills for a while now....

beeb
And the shopping sprees, travel/vacations etc. LOL.

Just wonderful!

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,051
  • Apr 22, 2011 11:59am Apr 22, 2011 11:59am
Quoting FX4Newbies
And the shopping sprees, travel/vacations etc. LOL.

Just wonderful!

FX4
exactly .....lol



beeb
  • #5,052
  • Apr 22, 2011 12:19pm Apr 22, 2011 12:19pm
How you figure he calculated the value of each phase?

Quoting LasVahGoose
Yeah, I was a little late to the game buying silver at 12-17 and gold at 600-800....
  • #5,053
  • Apr 22, 2011 12:19pm Apr 22, 2011 12:19pm
Quoting kotlt
What a GAPS !!!
Check babypips.com. Read everything while you are there.
  • #5,054
  • Apr 22, 2011 12:37pm Apr 22, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting Wile E
How you figure he calculated the value of each phase?
No idea, the actual numbers aren't relevant and most likely there for illustrative purposes. Who really knows, but you can probably contact the author on his youtube channel and ask him.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,055
  • Apr 22, 2011 2:01pm Apr 22, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting Wile E
How you figure he calculated the value of each phase?
The video does say the prices are approximate.

Silver was in phase 1 when it was in the teens of dollars. Price oscillated back and forth.

Following Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech on August 27 2010 price started up properly.
This would be the start of phase 2

Phase 3 will be when the mass media start to get hold of it. When your bank manager and financial advisor start to say it is a good idea. When your barber and taxi driver start on about it you will know we are well into the game.

The video is BS about when to get into silver. You should chase this all the way to the top and then murder it on the way down.
  • #5,056
  • Apr 22, 2011 2:11pm Apr 22, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting six gun
The video is BS about when to get into silver. You should chase this all the way to the top and then murder it on the way down.
I don't know if it is BS, I think it makes a difference if you are holding physical vs. paper vs. XAG/USD, etc. It may make more sense to unload the physical stuff early unless one wants to hold on to it for other reasons or garbage like the SLV would probably be good to get rid of early. I do agree, we have the advantage to go short when the time comes with an instrument like XAG or XAU. Everyones situation is going to be little bit different.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,057
  • Apr 22, 2011 2:55pm Apr 22, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I don't know if it is BS, I think it makes a difference if you are holding physical vs. paper vs. XAG/USD, etc. It may make more sense to unload the physical stuff early unless one wants to hold on to it for other reasons or garbage like the SLV would probably be good to get rid of early. I do agree, we have the advantage to go short when the time comes with an instrument like XAG or XAU. Everyones situation is going to be little bit different.
TBH the physical is "nice" but it doesn't necessarily make economic sense unless you believe the world is coming to an end soon.

If you bought at $20 and price went to $200 that's 10 X increase.

How much could you make trading that $20 silver over the same time?

If it were more then don't bother with the physical.

Trade and then buy the physical when panicking hopefuls give away the physical after the bubble has burst.

Cold hearted maybe but that would be the way to play it if the three phases pan out.
  • #5,058
  • Apr 22, 2011 2:58pm Apr 22, 2011 2:58pm
For those in the UK or those with a proxy server - BBC Newsnight led with a 15minute piece on gold last night........For those that don't know it, Newsnight is the BBC's nightly heavyweight detailed news analysis programme....


http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...ht_21_04_2011/

beeb
  • #5,059
  • Apr 22, 2011 3:19pm Apr 22, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting six gun
TBH the physical is "nice" but it doesn't necessarily make economic sense unless you believe the world is coming to an end soon.

If you bought at $20 and price went to $200 that's 10 X increase.

How much could you make trading that $20 silver over the same time?

If it were more then don't bother with the physical.

Trade and then buy the physical when panicking hopefuls give away the physical after the bubble has burst.

Cold hearted maybe but that would be the way to play it if the three phases pan out.

There are many ways to do it Six and I certainly wouldn't want to be in paper money only......What I've been doing for a number of years is to firstly take my monthly living expenses out of my trading profits. I then divide the remainder into three. The first part gets immediately invested into PM's so that I am cost averaging. The second part gets invested into PM's at what I deem to be "opportune" moments - the last time was when gold touched the 150 day MA. The third part is for life's luxuries or is added to my trading account or put into PM's should I feel like it......That gives me a mix that works for me....

beeb
  • #5,060
  • Apr 22, 2011 3:50pm Apr 22, 2011 3:50pm
Some people don't like or don't know how to trade on shorter time frames.

THere are plenty of people making money with physical. I know guys that are constantly buying and selling.

Think about it. In the past 4 months the price has added appx 20 USD.

If you buy bulk you get a better spread, even so let's say individual X buys
500 ozt @ appx 20 USD that's 10,000.

Now the price is appx 46.50 so you sell half

250 x say 45 (minus 1.50 for spread) = You now have your initial investment back +1250 cash and 250 ozs of FREE silver to hold or trade into Gold etc.

For a simple 4 month buy and hold.

I have some bars (10) oz. they were about 160 in 2008 and now retailing 498.50 for 1 10 oz bar!!!!!

Now I'm just adding sporadically, for instance I have a place that calls me with some deals like one American Silver eagle for 31 shipped. The price was 40 when they called. I had 5 people order for me.

Or when there is free shipping, I'll add some. A lot of people will sell at or below spot because of the recent gains.

I thought dropping a buck sixty was a lot on a simple bar at the time.

Yet, for YEARS people have been warning to "load up now" - or Back up the truck while were still in single digits. I gave some friends a buy signal for physical at $8 USD. some took it most didn't.

I'm sure when the buck has a little rally we will trim some of the fat and the price should come down, yet that will likely be the last major dip you will see in silver.

Let's look at what the price was at start of this thread.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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