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  • #4,781
  • Apr 16, 2011 1:26pm Apr 16, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
as for calling tops or a bubble he are some facts

in my opinion i dont think gold is overstreched nor over-valued if you see the charts and the annual returns on gold its not that overstreched nor over-valued:
2006 :22.9%
2007 : 31.3%
2008: 5.9%
2009: 24%
2010: 29.6%
2011 ytd: 4.7%

on the other hand silver because of the smaller market size compared to gold it was known as an easy to control and easy to minupilate market and its known for it high volitility thats way they call it the devils metal because of the high fluctiuation...
A interesting link regarding slv
http://www.zealllc.com/2011/slvetf2.htm
  • #4,782
  • Apr 16, 2011 3:16pm Apr 16, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting six gun
A interesting link regarding slv
http://www.zealllc.com/2011/slvetf2.htm
By the way I like gold but silver scares me because if the sec trys to stop the ETFs that will be the end for silver similar to what they did to the hunt brothers could that happen as it's seems you agree with me that slv is one of the main drivers in silver
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,783
  • Apr 16, 2011 4:13pm Apr 16, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
By the way I like gold but silver scares me because if the sec trys to stop the ETFs that will be the end for silver similar to what they did to the hunt brothers could that happen as it's seems you agree with me that slv is one of the main drivers in silver
There is a significant difference between this EFT and the Hunt brothers.

The Hunt brothers were attempting the corner the silver market. They were deliberately manipulating the market and driving up the price.

The silver price rose to $48.70 (in today's terms $155) because they bought up silver to drive the price that far. They had bought on margin in the futures market. Comex put restrictions on margin and the Hunt Brothers came unstuck. This was a high profile market manipulation. Authorities want to see a free market not cartels and fixing (which of course happens all the time).

This EFT is not buying on margin as far as I am aware they are selling shares which represent physical silver and buying silver to back these up. They are acting perfectly legitimately. More legitimately than many who have nothing to back up their waste paper).

The EFT is as money used to be. The money represented gold in the government vaults. The slv shares represent silver in the vault. They are something like a unit trust in the UK. People buy units in the unit trust, the money is then used to buy the underlying security.

If silver becomes more popular rather than going out buying the real thing an equivalent substitute is the EFT. They would be committing fraud if they were selling this EFT and not buying up silver in the market.

They are not really syphoning silver out of the physical market - investors are doing that using the EFT as their proxy representative.

I do not see any action being taken against this fund.
  • #4,784
  • Edited 1:45am Apr 17, 2011 12:57am | Edited 1:45am
Quoting six gun
There is a significant difference between this EFT and the Hunt brothers.

The Hunt brothers were attempting the corner the silver market. They were deliberately manipulating the market and driving up the price.

The silver price rose to $48.70 (in today's terms $155) because they bought up silver to drive the price that far. They had bought on margin in the futures market. Comex put restrictions on margin and the Hunt Brothers came unstuck. This was a high profile market manipulation. Authorities want to see a free market not cartels and fixing...
the similarties is the demand side of it and as you said the difference is one is legal price control the other is ilegal but both cornerd a small market with huge cash

as i stated in my previos post gold is not overvalued and thats becuase its a huge market and no one can corner but sivler and other commodities and agri markets are beening cornered by etfs and hedge funds and they are drivin the prices too high too fast

http://imarketnews.com/node/29550
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,785
  • Apr 17, 2011 2:10am Apr 17, 2011 2:10am
Quoting six gun
A interesting link regarding slv
http://www.zealllc.com/2011/slvetf2.htm
I read this one last night as well

http://www.zealllc.com/2011/spxcorr2.htm

A little bit about silver in there but the main gist is an SPX sell off will take down all commods which have been rallying with stocks.

Nothing is certain as beeb pointed out with picking out picking tops, you never can really know, as I probably look a bit silly now looking for a correction for the last 2 months

Anyway, as he points out there is extreme greed out there still by the vxo being super low versus the SPX whish relatively super high. Couple this with the overbought indicators on the silver chart that forexcube pointed out on Friday, I do not think it will be long before we see the fear of selling create more selling in xag.
  • #4,786
  • Apr 17, 2011 2:36am Apr 17, 2011 2:36am
SLV is paper and it is pretty clear there isn't enough physical in the vault to back the paper. That house of cards is going to collapse hard, but I don't see why, the paper instrument going to zero, would effect the spot price of silver. If anything greater demand and less supply would mean higher spot silver prices.

SLV maybe a good way to take advantage of the bull run since it is simple and easy to get in and out of. The trick is getting out a little early.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,787
  • Apr 17, 2011 5:53am Apr 17, 2011 5:53am
Quoting LasVahGoose
SLV is paper and it is pretty clear there isn't enough physical in the vault to back the paper. That house of cards is going to collapse hard, but I don't see why, the paper instrument going to zero, would effect the spot price of silver. If anything greater demand and less supply would mean higher spot silver prices.

SLV maybe a good way to take advantage of the bull run since it is simple and easy to get in and out of. The trick is getting out a little early.
What is the evidence that there is insufficient silver in the vaults to back the paper?

Something like value of EFT shares = X
Declared silver in the vaults = Y
X>Y

The problem is the data could be out of date.
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/f...erview/SLV.htm

EFT shares in circulation = 363,800,000
Current share price = $41.84
Share value = $15 221 392 000

Silver oz (said to be held) = 355,075,219
Spot price silver = $43
Silver value = $15 268 234 417

So as near as damn it, the declared silver in the vaults back the silver shares.

So you are saying they are lying?
That they are sitting on cash or there is silver promised to them but not delivered?

Either which way those numbers are staggering. A fund that size in a market the size of silver. Whatever effects them effects the whole market.
  • #4,788
  • Apr 17, 2011 6:09am Apr 17, 2011 6:09am
Quoting Euroscum
I read this one last night as well

http://www.zealllc.com/2011/spxcorr2.htm

A little bit about silver in there but the main gist is an SPX sell off will take down all commods which have been rallying with stocks.

Nothing is certain as beeb pointed out with picking out picking tops, you never can really know, as I probably look a bit silly now looking for a correction for the last 2 months

Anyway, as he points out there is extreme greed out there still by the vxo being super low versus the SPX whish relatively super high....
With regard to the state of the S&P's.

To my mind I do not know where the prices are coming from. I find it hard to believe in a world with tsunami's, collapsing economies (PIGS), the USD shot to pieces with Uncle Sam holding a multi trillion dollar debt, austerity packages slashing some governments' spending, commodity prices ever rising, unrest in the Gulf etc etc etc I cannot believe the stock indices. It is like the Nikkei index as I remember in the 1980's, the price just ramped up and up. A fool bought the stock at price X and a bigger fool bought at X + Y and so it went on.
  • #4,789
  • Apr 17, 2011 6:30am Apr 17, 2011 6:30am
Quoting six gun
What is the evidence that there is insufficient silver in the vaults to back the paper?

Something like value of EFT shares = X
Declared silver in the vaults = Y
X>Y

The problem is the data could be out of date.
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/f...erview/SLV.htm

EFT shares in circulation = 363,800,000
Current share price = $41.84
Share value = $15 221 392 000

Silver oz (said to be held) = 355,075,219
Spot price silver = $43
Silver value = $15 268 234 417

So as near as damn it, the declared silver...
Paper is worth the Paper it's printed on.

The entire Global Financial system is giant fraud. Not saying the little guy can't be smart a take a piece of the pie. All one has to do is look at the mortgage fraud and the crazy CDO's, other paper junk, and the history of financial markets.

Plus, JP Morgan is the custodian of the iShares SLV. That there is enough to be scared of it for long term holding.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,790
  • Apr 17, 2011 6:51am Apr 17, 2011 6:51am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Paper is worth the Paper it's printed on.

The entire Global Financial system is giant fraud. Not saying the little guy can't be smart a take a piece of the pie. All one has to do is look at the mortgage fraud and the crazy CDO's, other paper junk, and the history of financial markets.

Plus, JP Morgan is the custodian of the iShares SLV. That there is enough to be scared of it for long term holding.
Well we can go round and round.
The silver is in the vault or it is a fraud.
Unless you have access to the vault how can you know and how can you know whose silver it is?
I don't know the silver is there, but the audited figures say it is and where is the cash if it hasn't bought the silver and why not buy the silver?

Are you saying the silver does not exist. They are trading pretend silver. Get Eurotrash onto this. You can dig the stuff up for nothing, he'll tell them where. I wish he'd tell me too. (last time I mention that)
  • #4,791
  • Apr 17, 2011 7:18am Apr 17, 2011 7:18am
Quoting six gun
Well we can go round and round.
The silver is in the vault or it is a fraud.
Unless you have access to the vault how can you know and how can you know whose silver it is?
I don't know the silver is there, but the audited figures say it is and where is the cash if it hasn't bought the silver and why not buy the silver?

Are you saying the silver does not exist. They are trading pretend silver. Get Eurotrash onto this. You can dig the stuff up for nothing, he'll tell them where. I wish he'd tell me too. (last time I mention that)
Look, it really depends WHY you are buying silver to begin with. Everyone has their own reason. Some are in for the trade, some for protection, some to gamble, some to invest, some for who knows what. My personal reason is for protection, so that means I want the physical silver. Sure I'll TRADE the XAG and make some fiat money, but for longer term protection I want physical Gold and Silver.

If someone wants to trust the SLV or any other paper, that is fine. I'm not judging anyone. I personally do not trust these paper instruments. Even if the Silver is in the vault (which I personally doubt) they can do a million and one things to stop you from getting access to the physical stuff. I'm sure they'd be more then happy to pay you out with fiat dollars that will go to zero. I understand that some people are in the SLV to trade it and not actually collect the physical silver, but for the people that may want to take delivery one day, I think they will be in for a big surprise.

These are crazy times and the level of fraud in the system is so insane that nobody is responsible or going to jail. If you believe in this system, that is your life and your money. I really don't care to convince anyone otherwise, I just share my thoughts and opinions. Not telling anyone how to manage their finances or how to live their life. Lots of people are going to get hurt when the whole ponzi scheme we call the global financial system comes to end. My goal is not to be one of those people.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,792
  • Apr 17, 2011 9:10am Apr 17, 2011 9:10am
Here is one image of a textbook, which I contend, usually nothing is texbook in currencies or Gold for that matter.

The point I'm trying to make here is most of these chart patterns are researched and reported on websites using equities as the backbone.

The difference is there is so much more open interest in a currency pair than a particular stock. Example EUR/USD vs IBM.

Thus, the patterns are applicable because they are all related to trading,
however, where something may take a month to form on a stock chart, it could happen in a few days on a currency pair. (I think the longer the buildup the more powerful the pattern.)

In any case, some TA can be a bit hard to see using the Daily chart, unless as earlier stated we have something that is forming over a few weeks.
Thus, I am going to use H1 and H4 to show last weeks patterns.

In fact we got a bonus here. It can be looked at as a Symmetrical triangle Breakout, into Bullish flag. Or I suppose you could eliminate the flag....
Yet, using the FLAG confirms the break of the symmetrical triangle as bullish
as the flag is a continuation pattern and the triangle is a pattern that can really go either way.

For instance there was a sym Triangle on AUD/USD and it first broke down,
200 pips, before rising up 400 I believe.

I will use both. for those of you who prefer quick day trades.
This will be one post and I will follow up with another 2 or so with charts today before the market opens. With a link to this one.

Bullish flaghttp://www.trending123.com/media/fre...s/bullflag.png



Quoting XTrade
Impressive. Closes on both Gold and Silver near and at Record NEW highs.

My bullish flag did complete itself to a tee.

Will post the chart after, but if one used the flag pole as a measure, using the one bar and the second small one on the H4 - then from mid flag up to close
were both about fifteen dollar moves.

So as a day trade, if not already long, one could have bought the flag bottom or mid flag (safe) and expected about the pole's worth of pips for the breakout.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,793
  • Apr 17, 2011 9:37am Apr 17, 2011 9:37am
I agree with you Goose. I have done some research into this, it has been a while, but some things to think about.

Firstly the custodian of SLV is JPM.
Second, I believe they reserve the right to pay the client in cash equal to the value of the metal if need be.
Third, yes SIX GUN, there is likely some metal in the SLV vault.
BUT, there are extensive arguments, for the impossibility they claim of how much. Basically I think it was 2009 or 10 they claimed the vault had purchased don't " " me here but, what would equal 2/3rds of that years annual newly produced silver.

If this were true, the spot price would have gone through the rough! THat also leaves the question of what about industrial demand needs AND jewelers!

There was another report about bars on the population sheet coming up counted 2 to 3 times.

Let's look into this and see what we can dig up.

There is a saying from a Gold forum I belong to
"IF YOU DON"T HOLD IT, YOU DON'T OWN IT." as I flip one of my newly acquired Engelhard prospectors.
jeese I even made the spread + already on these!!!



Quoting LasVahGoose
Look, it really depends WHY you are buying silver to begin with....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,794
  • Apr 17, 2011 9:53am Apr 17, 2011 9:53am
http://dailypaul.com/130314/paper-silver-article-slv
About the possibility of fake tungsten filled Good delivery Gold bars then discussion of SLV etc.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,795
  • Edited 12:10pm Apr 17, 2011 11:59am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting XTrade
I agree with you Goose....
XTrade I have heard the accounts that there is no silver in the vaults and no gold in Fort Knox any more. That if investors actually demanded delivery of physical silver there would be a massive sh*t storm and defaults all over the show.

TBH I suspect most of this is true.

I would not touch JPM with a barge pole (ten-foot pole). The accounts given by Andrew Maguire are very clear on their devious ways.

There is bound to be a clause allowing SLV to pay in cash. In deed the trust is set up to discourage redemption. In the prospectus for SLV the minimum amount of shares which can be redeemed for physical silver is 50 000. So to all intents and purposes that's 50 000 oz of silver, more than $2 million.

http://us.ishares.com/content/stream...pplication/pdf

If SLV does not hold the silver but does not have derivatives or large amounts of cash, what is it about? A big pack of lies?

Their numbers on paper tally. The question is do their silver bars add up?
I agree if a single entity sucks 2/3rds of annual production out of the market, unless someone were off loading a few million oz, this would trigger a massive price spike.

The issues I have mainly seen is that nothing tallies. There isn't enough silver. It is being counted several times over. Is this a massive fraud by JPM? If true I don't suppose the hands on the levers are confined to JPM.

This doesn't help traders right now but it is interesting nevertheless.

If this were actually true the market would quite simply explode.

Edit - looked at the article on silver plated moly bars. Molybdenum is $34/lb or there about.

When they audit do they drill into bars? No they check the marks. Gosh that would be hard to fake! (Not)
  • #4,796
  • Apr 17, 2011 3:08pm Apr 17, 2011 3:08pm
Hi, it's been several weeks that i couldn't put my analysis here. and seems gold is going up yet and i think it is close to the end of its up trend as in following analysis it is said why. but now for short term the up trend will continue some more.

Last Week:
=> Rising to 1477 resistance as it was forecasted
=> Then rising to 1488

Analysis:
Rising since forming valley at 1307.951 support zone and following #22 up trend
Then rising to 1476.20 by break of 1444.403 resistance zone which had acted as resistance for months
Consolidation at 14774 initially last week
Forming new peak at 1476.205 and descending divergence type 2
Decline to 1444 and entering into the buy zone
Consolidation at 1444 as it was forecasted
Forming new valley at 14446 higher than last valley (1410.127) by rising on Thursday
Rising to 1488 by break of 1477 resistance
=> According to valley at 1444 support zone and break of 1477 resistance initially bias of current week would be further rising
=> Until 1412.508 support is not broken, continuous of up trend is expected
=> But according to weekly and monthly charts of Gold up trend is getting close to end

Important Notices:
RSI:
=> Curve is rising above #3 up trend
=> It is getting close to beginning of the buy zone

WEMA21:
=> Price is above WEMA (21)
=> Dynamic support against decline

Trading Suggestion is to “Buy”:
=> Price may turn back into the buy zone -1444.40to 1412.50
So traders should attention to technical parameters and sell indications to get into the market by sell orders. Also some orders could remain open with no take profit to reach long term targets.
Technical Points:
1. 1307.95 is valley on 28/01/2011
2. #2 up trend is depicted from 1307.95 to 1380.85. it is acted as support on 01/04/2011
3. 1444.40 is beginning of the buy zone which is peak and resistance on 07/03/2011
4. 1477 is 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of 1157 to 1430.75 at 1308. It is acted as support after breaking on 15/04/2011
5. 1476.20 is peak on 11/04/2011. It is acted as support after breaking on15/04/2011
6. 1444 is valley at 12/04/2011
7. 1410.12 is valley at 28/03/2011
8. 1412.50 is end of the sell zone which is valley on 29/03/2011

New Short term targets:
TP1 is at 1477
TP2 is at 1582.30
Previous Short term targets:
TP1 is at 1392 which is 38% retracement of 1307.95 to 1444.40
TP2 is at 1377 which is 50% retracement of 1307.95 to 1444.40. Also it is 23% retracement of 1157 to 1444.40
TP3 is at 1362 which is 61.8% retracement of 1307.95 to 1444.40
TP4 is at 1341 which is 78.6% retracement of 1307.95 to 1444.40
TP5 is at 1308 which is valley on 28/01/2011
TP6 is at 1265.50 which is 61.8% retracement of 1157 to 1444.40
TP7 is at 1238.15 which is valley on 03/09/2011 and 10/09/2010
TP8 is at 1212.50 which is valley on 24/08/2010
TP9 is at 1157 which is valley on 28/07/2010
TP10 is in break of 1157
Short term targets (sell orders on 10/03/2011 & 03/03/2011):
TP1 (closed with profit) is at 1392 which is 38% retracement of 1307.95 to 1444.40

Some opened sell orders on 03/03/2011 at 1415.50 are closed on 15/03/2011 at TP1 with 23.50 $ profit. Rests of them are closed on 18/03/2011 with no loss.

Also some opened sell orders on 10/03/2011 at 1411.38 are closed on 15/03/2011 at TP1 with 19.38 $ profit. Rests of them are closed on 18/03/2011 with no loss.

Short term targets (sell orders on 13/01/2011):
TP1 (ignored) is at 1366.00 which is 23% retracement of 1157 to 1430.75
TP2 (closed with profit) is at 1329.60 which is valley on 17/11/2010
TP3 (closed with profit) is at 1314 which is valley on 22/10/2010

Part of sell orders on 13/01/2011 at 1373.27 are closed on 25/01/2011 at TP2 with 43.65 $, some other on 27/01/2011 at TP3 with 59.27 $. Rests of them are closed on 17/02/2011 with no loss.

Short term targets (sell orders on 04/01/2011):
TP1 (closed with profit) is at 1366.00 which is 23% retracement of 1157 to 1430.75

Part of sell orders on 04/01/2011 at 1380.30, are closed on05/01/2011 at TP1 with +14.3 $. Rests of them are closed on 10/01/2011 with no loss.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Short_Term_11_04_15_10_XAUUSD_D1_lm.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #4,797
  • Apr 17, 2011 3:55pm Apr 17, 2011 3:55pm
SIXX - I do not want to forget this topic. But I am going to give a quick lesson now for those who are interested.

Quoting six gun
XTrade I have heard the accounts that there is no silver in the vaults and no gold in Fort Knox any more. That if investors actually demanded delivery of physical silver there would be a massive sh*t storm and defaults all over the show.

TBH I suspect most of this is true.

I would not touch JPM with a barge pole (ten-foot pole). The accounts given by Andrew Maguire are very clear on their devious ways.

There is bound to be a clause allowing SLV to pay in cash. In deed the trust is set up to discourage redemption. In the prospectus for...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,798
  • Edited 5:38pm Apr 17, 2011 4:47pm | Edited 5:38pm
OK here is the first post for the Symmetrical Triangle which I am now going to refer to as SYM_T.

I have tried to eliminate some of the mid resistances for clarity. This chart shows the MAJOR and Intermediate resistances in a line chart.

THe next chart shows the Triangle formed with expectations and the breakout. With notes.

The second chart is what happened with notes.

The last chart is how to play if you are not sure which way the SYM_T will break with both SAFE and AGGRESSIVE entries.
Problem with aggressive entries is getting picked up on a headfake.


NOTE --- If you have a firm bias - for the best results you want to enter after the test of the SYM_T line OR
for bigger profits right in the middle of the triangle, this is where you should get the return you are looking for.

Keep in mind this is an H4 chart so PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE and of MOST IMPORTANCE. The impatient make less money,
pay more spreads/ commissions, etc.....

NEXT WE WILL LOOK AT THE BULLISH FLAG that formed after the SYM_T breakout.


Quoting XTrade
Here is one image of a textbook,
""" which I contend, usually nothing is texbook in currencies or Gold for that matter.

In any case, some TA can be a bit hard to see using the Daily chart, unless as earlier stated we have something that is forming over a few weeks.
Thus, I am going to use H1 and H4 to show last weeks patterns.

In fact we got a bonus here. It can be looked at as a Symmetrical triangle Breakout, into Bullish flag. Or I suppose you could eliminate the flag....
Yet, using the FLAG confirms the break of the symmetrical triangle as bullish
as the flag is a continuation pattern and the triangle is a pattern that can really go either way."""" X
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SYMT_Base chart with SR below using Line.GIF Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SYM_T_with measurements.GIF Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Symt with orders outside.GIF Size: 53 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,799
  • Edited 11:09pm Apr 17, 2011 4:51pm | Edited 11:09pm
Bullish
Quoting Xtrade
flaghttp://www.trending123.com/media/fre...s/bullflag.png
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...tcount=4929see here
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,800
  • Apr 17, 2011 6:34pm Apr 17, 2011 6:34pm
This is my fork on the 4H gold.
It is a modified Schiff.
The A point is where the blue arrow is but it is moved 50% of the way up and 50% forward towards the B point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 4h mod schiff.PNG Size: 30 KB
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