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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #4,241
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:36pm Apr 5, 2011 4:36pm
Quoting XTrade
Well put. There never is.

BTW: Silver demand: In my avatar are 1 ozt Silver Engelhard Prospectors - They are bullion rounds not made since the 80's.
The dealer I bought from has plenty of other stock yet had posted these the other day, I believe they had about 500 available.

Since I know they are amongst physical investors highly popular I checked back, today to see the price difference.
SOLD OUT. in less than 48 hours.
Silver just hit another historical high(and of course a daily high) by the end of the day. This reminds me what happened on 2/18 and 2/19 when we saw that crazy bull run. That time the following Asian session kept pushing the pirce up without any significant retracement until it crashed...
  • #4,242
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:39pm Apr 5, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting beeb
I got to admit that I am putting more and more people on my "Ignore" list 'cos I get bored with hearing the same thing over and over again. If you've got a valid technical or fundamental reason then please share it.

"It's gone up therefore it'll go down...." isn't any help and is actually less likely to work out than flipping a coin.......

beeb
LOL beeb I am with you all the way on that one!
I used to read some of the forums on iii.co.uk
There is so much stupid talk. It's going to be a $1500 for sure next week.
By next year silver will be $200. It's a cert...... and so on and so on. Stupid cat fights, multiple username posters, pump and dumpers talking BS.

Just thought this might be where I get my forum etiquette. Yep I think it is.
Apologies.
  • #4,243
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:17pm Apr 5, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting six gun
LOL beeb I am with you all the way on that one!
I used to read some of the forums on iii.co.uk
There is so much stupid talk. It's going to be a $1500 for sure next week.
By next year silver will be $200. It's a cert...... and so on and so on. Stupid cat fights, multiple username posters, pump and dumpers talking BS.

Just thought this might be where I get my forum etiquette. Yep I think it is.
Apologies.

You're doing very well six gun lol.....

Good moves on gold and silver today maybe establishing new trading ranges. They both broke resistance more easily than I thought they would and in retrospect I took trading money off the table too early. But money in the bank is the name of the game.

Let's see how things go in the next few hours.....

beeb
  • #4,244
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:19pm Apr 5, 2011 5:19pm
I'm somewhat suprised that so many people here are experienced enough to counter trend trade gold, I'm not feeling confident enough to short gold unless there is a reason, and by reason I mean something more than a gut feeling.
  • #4,245
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:20pm Apr 5, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting 4cc
I'm somewhat suprised that so many people here are experienced enough to counter trend trade gold, I'm not feeling confident enough to short gold unless there is a reason, and by reason I mean something more than a gut feeling.

possibly change the word "experienced" for "not experienced"?

beeb
  • #4,246
  • Apr 5, 2011 5:37pm Apr 5, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting musclemike
Wow, why does everybody trying to short when even on smaller time frames today was a clear upward movement. Anyway, goodluck.

I sold 7lots ( my kind of lots ), waiting the 1460 to sell another 2 and than wait for a retest of lower, grounds 1420-1430 to add longs.


Have a good trade, everyone.

Exactly, it's better to scalp the swings, but following the trend. Anyone interested check the flag trading the trend thread.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #4,247
  • Apr 5, 2011 6:00pm Apr 5, 2011 6:00pm
Quoting beeb
possibly change the word "experienced" for "not experienced"?

beeb

Swimming against the tide doesn't work in the ocean for very long and not in trading either. Even if you survive it provides less results for the energy expended.
  • #4,248
  • Apr 5, 2011 7:28pm Apr 5, 2011 7:28pm
Hearing of heavy Jpanese offers in gold, XAU/USD near $1454.00.....

Forex Insider News above. I will close my short soon, maybe $1452.
  • #4,249
  • Apr 5, 2011 8:49pm Apr 5, 2011 8:49pm
Quoting quyenpt84
Hearing of heavy Jpanese offers in gold, XAU/USD near $1454.00.....

Forex Insider News above. I will close my short soon, maybe $1452.
Oh that is a really reliable source.
  • #4,250
  • Apr 6, 2011 12:16am Apr 6, 2011 12:16am
breakout of tues. daily highs 1442 and weekly highs 1451-53 and seems to be on her way to monthly highs 1466 and quarterly high @1490.
will be watching how she responds as she rotates back to test breakout areas. (note taken of a visit to 1451)
also, eyes will be watching how she responds when silver hits her monthly highs 39.95 and qt. high 41.46 area.
although silvers been breaking out and not looking back my eyes are open to quarterly highs 41.46 area with the greatest expectation rotating back for support if she first get by monthly highs 39.95, there seems like theres no stopping this girl, obviously trending on the higher timeframes.

wed.gold daily
1463-66
1441
1425
silver daily
39.70-99
38.49
37.26
  • #4,251
  • Apr 6, 2011 12:50am Apr 6, 2011 12:50am
Quoting lilpip
this year which will put us at $51.00 area.
last years 15.00 area (yearly pivot) is $23.40 area this year, and lets hope it gets that low so we can buy a bunch more otherwise at this point Im looking at $26-27 before we get there.
as posted @ yearly open jan. 3, im seeing $51 area as yearly high, I cant imagine going strait up from $26 ( exception of our $ 3 scalp) without a serious attempt of support.
may 41.46 give us an oppurtunity to buy more please.
  • #4,252
  • Apr 6, 2011 1:32am Apr 6, 2011 1:32am
Quoting 4cc
I'm somewhat suprised that so many people here are experienced enough to counter trend trade gold, I'm not feeling confident enough to short gold unless there is a reason, and by reason I mean something more than a gut feeling.
Ok then, look at this.

You are talking a new high in November of 1412, since then we have had a sell off everytime a new high is reached. We are talking almost 6 months now and gold has managed only another $40 on that November high. It has been in a range, not a ragaing bull.


The run up from aug to nov was the main one putting on 250$ from 1160 to 1412. There have been plently of 50$ sell offs in that time, espcecially the one that went down to 1310 that was over $100 from $1420. You would have needed a lot of conviction to hold that position.

Counter trend can be done in a scalp, new highs often mean profit taking and if history is anythign to go by, since november it works every time.
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  • #4,253
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:38am Apr 6, 2011 2:38am
can some one familiar with this matter answer my question please

what happens to Commodities prices when central banks(g-10 nations) start to hick interest rate as its seems inflation is picking up all around
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,254
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:52am Apr 6, 2011 2:52am
I have just exited my final 1/3 on silver at 39.48. If ever there was a psychological level its 40, so there could be reisistance here soon.

For me now 38- 38.15 is new support and would be a good place to buy again.
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  • #4,255
  • Apr 6, 2011 2:55am Apr 6, 2011 2:55am
Quoting blue_z_zz
can some one familiar with this matter answer my question please

what happens to Commodities prices when central banks(g-10 nations) start to hick interest rate as its seems inflation is picking up all around

Two possibilities re precious metals:

1. the extra attraction of higher interest rates drives investors AWAY from PM's.
2. The spectre of inflation drives investors TOWARDS PM's.

The talking heads will tell you that number 1 happens but my feelings are with number 2.

beeb
  • #4,256
  • Apr 6, 2011 3:02am Apr 6, 2011 3:02am
Quoting beeb
Two possibilities re precious metals:

1. the extra attraction of higher interest rates drives investors AWAY from PM's.
2. The spectre of inflation drives investors TOWARDS PM's.

The talking heads will tell you that number 1 happens but my feelings are with number 2.

beeb
so hyper infaltion no.2 controlable infaltion no.1 is this what you ment?
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,257
  • Apr 6, 2011 3:12am Apr 6, 2011 3:12am
Quoting blue_z_zz
so hyper infaltion no.2 controlable infaltion no.1 is this what you ment?

No, I was talking about "ordinary" inflation - hyper would certainly lead to 2.

I was obtusely making the point that the talking heads are very anti-PM's....

There's loads of views out there - suggest googling



beeb
  • #4,258
  • Edited 3:38am Apr 6, 2011 3:16am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting blue_z_zz
can some one familiar with this matter answer my question please

what happens to Commodities prices when central banks(g-10 nations) start to hick interest rate as its seems inflation is picking up all around
Higher interest rates are a strategy to remove liquidity from the market - less money circulating, less inflation. Prices will rise less quickly, or even fall.

The only thing is that XAU and XAG are quoted in USD. I'm not quite sure if rate hikes in Europe and everywhere else will affect the precious metals directly (I guess so, but it's just a guess). Besides that, the coming hikes are already priced in; unless a big Central Bank surprises the market with higher hikes than expected, we may not see any big impact right now.

When we talk about US, that's different. There was a funny post some days ago: a guy said that "Gold poops in the bed by the mere mention of a US rate hike" . Indeed, there was some movement in gold - downwards. Regardless of all the bullish talk and all the discussion about the intrisic value of gold (that I agree almost completely), we must know that there is a lot of SPECULATORS in the market. They got cheap money and speculated in all kinds of things, from commodities to stocks. US is not only keeping rates very low, they are pushing money to the market. That's why everything is going up.

When the US interest rate finally goes up (it can take a long time), we may see a sell-off, maybe a HUGE one. Money won't be so cheap anymore and it has to be paid back to the lenders... Even gold and silver will be dumped. We can call it "profit taking" as well. Some people would see this profit taking as the highly expected "Big Correction". Some people will even say that this is the first sign of the next crash...


Silver is very close to $40. When we reach something like 39.80 or 39.90, the profit-taking could already start. If there is any surprising news, the speculators can use it as a disguise to perform a very, very big profit-taking - and the TV channels will blame the "surprising news" for the "huge sell-off"



Quoting beeb
Two possibilities re precious metals:

1. the extra attraction of higher interest rates drives investors AWAY from PM's.
2. The spectre of inflation drives investors TOWARDS PM's.

The talking heads will tell you that number 1 happens but my feelings are with number 2.

beeb
That's why I imagine PMs will range for some time when the rates start to rise.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,259
  • Apr 6, 2011 3:49am Apr 6, 2011 3:49am
thanks beeb & harvest3r

harvest3r some brokers do quote pms in other currencies eq.(cable , euro,aud,swiss and yen)
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,260
  • Apr 6, 2011 3:57am Apr 6, 2011 3:57am
beeb,

Did you see what your "friend" Harvey Organ wrote?


With gold hitting record levels you have to shake your head in disbelief with this headline: (from Reuters)

Gold ETF posts biggest quarterly outflow since 2004

*SPDR posts biggest quarterly drop since inception
* Investors seen shifting to other commods, bonds
SINGAPORE, April 1 (Reuters) - The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust , posted in the first three months of 2011 its biggest quarterly drop since inception as the prospect of interest rate hikes and gains in other commodities drove investors to sell.....

We may shake our heads, but that's how the market behave... higher yields, higher yields, higher yields!
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
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