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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #4,081
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:01pm Apr 3, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting beeb
Daily Gold looks to me to be consolidating in a bullish trend....There is very strong physical buying in the London spot market (obviously a different beast to the COMEX) and we seem to be seeing a higher floor coming in. IMO it was bullish that we did not see lower prices maintained through NFP and end of month/quarter/opex.....

I'm anticipating higher prices in the near future and will as always look to the shorter timeframe charts to guide me to the longer patterns.

beeb
beeb
That is interesting information about LME.
I will look to see chart signs of a bullish breakout when that works through into the chart.

I live just down the road from the Cadbury chocolate factory. The chocolate there still tastes the best to me.
  • #4,082
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:03pm Apr 3, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting six gun
Sorry man but where is this coming from???

Price is NOT clearly doing anything of the sort.

Looking at the weekly chart the most recent bar is a doji. What does that say? It says price does not know where it is going.
Price is consolidating - it has hardly moved for two weeks.
The week before was a very poor bullish pinbar above the BRN (big round number) 1400 level. Clearly the market was going nowhere with that because it did not.

There is NO chart basis to say price is Clearly going higher other than we are in a long bullish trend. But...
Everybody's play is always a sort of guess at this game. I'm not going to blow my account. Stay out if you want, c ya soon at 1500$.
  • #4,083
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:06pm Apr 3, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting six gun
I live just down the road from the Cadbury chocolate factory. The chocolate there still tastes the best to me.

Lindt works for me lol

beeb
  • #4,084
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:12pm Apr 3, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting GiorgioM
Everybody's play is always a sort of guess at this game.

Nobody can be certain that gold won't move $200 either way tomorrow. The probability is that it won't.
Technical Analysis uses past data to attempt to take as many variables as possible out of the equation in order to give a trade the best possibility of success.....

beeb
  • #4,085
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:15pm Apr 3, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting GiorgioM
Everybody's play is always a sort of guess at this game. I'm not going to blow my account. Stay out if you want, c ya soon at 1500$.
The reason I came back was you said look at the chart. That is something I know about and excepting the mother of all bull trends the chart is not indicating a breakout to the upside at the moment.
Then you said don't ask me why and you are specific about a price for April.

I have read so many forum threads where people come on saying price will do this and that and something else. They mean they would like it to do this but don't have any firm foundation for that. I was guilty of that too. I have worked hard to knock that nonsense out of my head and take trading decisions where the odds stack in my favour.

The bull trend does favour you and the chances are a long position will come good. It will certainly come good in the end. Beeb's fundamental information favours you more.
I would much rather see the fundamentals come through into the chart rather than act on gut instinct and good luck.
  • #4,086
  • Apr 3, 2011 3:41pm Apr 3, 2011 3:41pm
Hope evreyone has had a good weekend. My silver longs have survived the NFP report, and friday has formed a daily pin bar riding the 8day ema, this is typical market behavour and often results in a pop- higher in this case.

We are very high, but i have missed so many good trades in the past, by refusing to buy because i believed something was too high, and this is an issue i am trying to deal withe. Basically i will keep buying pullbacks to value, untill it stops working, and then if the trend turns, i will short rallys. Simple.

Any way this pin allows me to reduce risk to a very small amount by trailing my stop to below 37, or fridays low.

Good trading to all.

highlander2.
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  • #4,087
  • Apr 3, 2011 3:58pm Apr 3, 2011 3:58pm
Interesting article that I think sums up some of the recent discussion in this thread.

Nasdaq Bubble, Real-estate Bubble… Silver Bubble?
http://www.financialsense.com/node/4...9&utm_term=FSO
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,088
  • Apr 3, 2011 4:09pm Apr 3, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting highlander2
Hope evreyone has had a good weekend. My silver longs have survived the NFP report, and friday has formed a daily pin bar riding the 8day ema, this is typical market behavour and often results in a pop- higher in this case.

We are very high, but i have missed so many good trades in the past, by refusing to buy because i believed something was too high, and this is an issue i am trying to deal withe. Basically i will keep buying pullbacks to value, untill it stops working, and then if the trend turns, i will short rallys. Simple.

Any way...
Your pin bar is far from perfect as an entry point but if you are in the trade that is perhaps different.

The body of the pin bar should be above 38.00. A big round number and so psychological level. This would give price support.
At the moment price is underneath this barrier which it must first get past before price can continue higher.

The lower wick is not very long. Ideally it would be longer indicating a good reversal in price during the life of the bar and so a definite change in market sentiment to the bullish side.
  • #4,089
  • Apr 3, 2011 4:19pm Apr 3, 2011 4:19pm
Im am long from 37.11, and a little bit more from 37.42.
  • #4,090
  • Apr 3, 2011 4:19pm Apr 3, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Interesting article that I think sums up some of the recent discussion in this thread.

Nasdaq Bubble, Real-estate Bubble… Silver Bubble?
http://www.financialsense.com/node/4...9&utm_term=FSO
Where I have put the arrow is where I feel we are with silver.
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  • #4,091
  • Apr 3, 2011 4:57pm Apr 3, 2011 4:57pm
Quoting six gun
Your pin bar is far from perfect as an entry point but if you are in the trade that is perhaps different.

The body of the pin bar should be above 38.00. A big round number and so psychological level. This would give price support.
At the moment price is underneath this barrier which it must first get past before price can continue higher.

The lower wick is not very long. Ideally it would be longer indicating a good reversal in price during the life of the bar and so a definite change in market sentiment to the bullish side.

You seem to be splitting hairs as it's worth remembering that last week happened in the shadow of all the factors I mentioned earlier....in the light of which I think that silver's performance was more than adequate.....
IMO a little bit of positive momentum in the 240min will take it through obvious resistance. If that then becomes support we could see quite a positive week......Much the same goes for gold. In both cases I like the rebounds from the usual NFP attacks...

beeb
  • #4,092
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:29pm Apr 3, 2011 5:29pm
Six Gun where have you been!!!

Any positions!?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,093
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:34pm Apr 3, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting beeb
You seem to be splitting hairs as it's worth remembering that last week happened in the shadow of all the factors I mentioned earlier....in the light of which I think that silver's performance was more than adequate.....
IMO a little bit of positive momentum in the 240min will take it through obvious resistance. If that then becomes support we could see quite a positive week......Much the same goes for gold. In both cases I like the rebounds from the usual NFP attacks...

beeb
I am describing the price action on the chart in terms of bar morphology and support/resistance/psyche levels. I am from the J16 clan, this is our bread and butter.

I am sure you will be aware how a good pin bar should be and this is not ideal. The guy is in the trade but the pb is not the sort that gives a high probability to enter a trade. I mean you are 90% plus sure the trade will move for you.

Yes with some positive momentum it will get above this BRN and we could have a bullish week. If the pb body were above the BRN and there were a longer wick "could" would be nearer "probably".

The potency of these bars is much like real estate - location, location, location.
Yeah I'm picky but that how it is with technical analysis.
  • #4,094
  • Edited 5:51pm Apr 3, 2011 5:39pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting XTrade
Six Gun where have you been!!!

Any positions!?
Hi there man.
Yeah I'm back. I have built a house and decided to concentrate on this.
No positions at the moment. Silver has had a beauty of a bull run. I am not in so I am nervous for a retracement. The run has been really fast.

I hope you have been filling your boots over the last few months.

Price has been in a consolidation phase so I am looking for a breakout from there.

You have built up a very strong thread here. Top form to you.
  • #4,095
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:46pm Apr 3, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting six gun
I am describing the price action on the chart in terms of bar morphology and support/resistance/psyche levels. I am from the J16 clan, this is our bread and butter.

I am sure you will be aware how a good pin bar should be and this is not ideal. The guy is in the trade but the pb is not the sort that gives a high probability to enter a trade. I mean you are 90% plus sure the trade will move for you.

Yes with some positive momentum it will get above this BRN and we could have a bullish week. If the pb body were above the BRN and there were a longer...
Sorry - don't trade pin-bars and I don't know what BRN or J16 clan is. I was merely pointing out that IMO one needs to look at technical patterns in the light of the wider picture. And in the light of the wider picture silver and gold both did pretty well.....

beeb
  • #4,096
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:57pm Apr 3, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting beeb
Sorry - don't trade pin-bars and I don't know what BRN or J16 clan is. I was merely pointing out that IMO one needs to look at technical patterns in the light of the wider picture. And in the light of the wider picture silver and gold both did pretty well.....

beeb
No problem beeb.
You clearly know your stuff on the fundamentals. Respect.

I will point out the technicals where i can and we can learn from each other.
BRN is a big round number - like 38.000 is a big round number and so acts as a psychological barrier. With silver price is under this BRN so upward movement will have to get through this and close above. A bullish move is then in a much stronger position to carry on up.
J16 is James16. It's one of the biggest threads on FF. It's pure technical analysis. The methods its uses can be used on any time frame and any thing that you can chart.
  • #4,097
  • Edited Apr 4, 2011 2:54am Apr 3, 2011 6:20pm | Edited Apr 4, 2011 2:54am
No problems....

Thanks for the offer but I'm quite confident and content with my technical skills - I just don't trade the same method as you....I use Andrews' forks and ABCD's for the intraday stuff and use them in conjunction with stochs, macd and rsi for the dailies...

Always interested to hear others' techniques though....

beeb
  • #4,098
  • Apr 3, 2011 7:02pm Apr 3, 2011 7:02pm
Thanks Man! I've been a bit busy the past few days.

Definitely missing your input and analysis here.

Great to hear about the house. Quite an achievement! And you earned a vouch too!

----------------

Yeah, thread still going pretty crazy it's Year anniversary was last month!

Many have come and gone, but we got some new regulars in here who seem to enjoy posting on a regular basis - AND of course I'm still here!

I think some accounts have been blown unfortunately, and try to tell people to look for longer term trades, instead of thinking they are going to be an intraday scalper and get rich quick.

Plus the other one I banned hasn't shown up since your hiatus... I gave him 3 months off ban and no posts. So......

Glad to hear from you mate. If your flat no need to rush into anything.
The market will always be here waiting to suck you back in.


I am focusing heavily right now on the charts and looking at physical options and strategies.

I am thinking of taking part of my copper hoard and trading it in for gold, then trade the gold for silver if she drops... We]ll see/



Quoting six gun
Hi there man.
Yeah I'm back. I have built a house and decided to concentrate on this.
No positions at the moment. Silver has had a beauty of a bull run. I am not in so I am nervous for a retracement. The run has been really fast.

I hope you have been filling your boots over the last few months.

Price has been in a consolidation phase so I am looking for a breakout from there.

You have built up a very strong thread here. Top form to you.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,099
  • Edited 2:49am Apr 4, 2011 2:12am | Edited 2:49am
Quoting six gun
I am describing the price action on the chart in terms of bar morphology and support/resistance/psyche levels. I am from the J16 clan, this is our bread and butter.

I am sure you will be aware how a good pin bar should be and this is not ideal. The guy is in the trade but the pb is not the sort that gives a high probability to enter a trade. I mean you are 90% plus sure the trade will move for you.

Yes with some positive momentum it will get above this BRN and we could have a bullish week. If the pb body were above the BRN and there were...
Just to be clear "the guy" has been trading PA for nearly 2 years and does know how to trade(most of the time).

On the 28hth of march we had a reasonable pin(also a fakey) of the 36.38 support, which was old resistance, this is simple market behavour. Then on the 29th we formed an inside pin bar, showing more rejections of lower prices, and after this bar formed I was pretty confident that we would see higher prices.

The only thorn in the side for the trade was NFP, but I had moved my stop up before this happened, and it survived. Fridays bar was a pin bar, bouncing perfectly on the 8day ema, this is typical market behavour, and price is riding the the 8day ema like a surfer rides a wave.

After fridays bar i was very happy with my trade and was confident that we would see new highs this week, and we just have acording to my chart.

Any way im not bragging, just trying to show that i understand what im doing, and i hope we can learn from each others experience in the future.

Good trading
  • #4,100
  • Apr 4, 2011 2:30am Apr 4, 2011 2:30am
hmmm

not the greatest forum etiquette what with "the guy" and offering to point out my technical inadequacies......



beeb
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