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  • #4,061
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:57am Apr 3, 2011 5:57am
Quoting six gun
Whenever I see one way traffic up over a relatively short time I think bubble. Longer term I only see the metals going up and today's prices looking cheap, but that does not stop me seeing an investor's bubble with silver.
Maybe I'm getting confused on how the term bubble is used, but I think I see your point. You think that we are in the early stages of a bubble and it has a way to go before it bursts, but that it is still tradeable in the mean time.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,062
  • Apr 3, 2011 6:16am Apr 3, 2011 6:16am
Quoting six gun


What I am saying is I see on the chart a very rapid short term rise in silver after years of lower levels. It has been a one way bet for months now. As soon as enough people think something is a one way bet we are in a bubble.

IMHO I think you need to redefine your terminology.

"Bubbles" imply a final spike top (emphasis on the word "final") before a catastrophic selling spree back to the mean. Everything you seem to describe points to you seeing an overstretching of price rather than a one off terminal event.....

beeb
  • #4,063
  • Edited 7:34am Apr 3, 2011 7:16am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting beeb
IMHO I think you need to redefine your terminology.

"Bubbles" imply a final spike top (emphasis on the word "final") before a catastrophic selling spree back to the mean. Everything you seem to describe points to you seeing an overstretching of price rather than a one off terminal event.....

beeb
Terminal events are totally final - one off. We are still buying and selling tulip bulbs, dot com's, the stocks from Black Monday, real estate....

Bubbles are hardly ever final. South China Sea/Mississippi Scheme bubbles were final because the companies collapsed. They were to a great extent a fraud.

The stock market crash in Black Monday and the days after had the Dow go from 2500 to 1750. This was a bubble bursting. It was "only" a 30% fall. If you were around at that time this was described as a crash, the end of the world, guys jumping out of windows. But hey it was just 30% down.

So there are bubbles and bubbles.

In the truly historically significant bubbles we would be seeing silver at prices of $1000's. So I will withdraw the word bubble, but if the silver price continues to climb as quickly as it has over recent weeks it will hit $40 in three weeks and around $46.50 by the end of next month.

A pull back to the previous trend high at $31 would be the same in percentage terms as the crash in the stock market in 1987.

This is the point I am making.
I am very positive about the medium to long term price of silver and gold, just when things look one way they often get carried away and silver looks like it is getting somewhat carried away.

If stocks had drifted down over a year by 30% it would not have been called a crash.

Silver has had a habit of correcting hard and fast.
Yes it will only take the Gulf States to seriously start saying we want to be paid for oil in gold, silver or peanut butter instead of USD and price will go off the chart but until that happens the chances of a sharp and potentially large correction mounts the longer price races away with itself.
  • #4,064
  • Apr 3, 2011 7:35am Apr 3, 2011 7:35am
OK whatever......

But you presented two charts - the first one showed a blow off top and then a reversal to beneath the mean. You then asked if the second one of silver could be the same. That would imply a silver price reversing to between $10 and $15. I don't think that is at all likely. I think the analogy is wrong and alarmist.

I agree that silver is looking overstretched and could do with a consolidation of some sort. That does not mean it's in a bubble (and I'm glad you agree)



beeb
  • #4,065
  • Apr 3, 2011 7:50am Apr 3, 2011 7:50am
I do agree that silver has climbed up pretty quick comparing to gold, but as i "heard" lately, people who don't have the money to buy gold they buy silver and also silver is heavily used in production industries, so that might be an explanation.
We have to be careful when using the word bubble...because, at least in golds case, it has been used for so many times (1000, 1200,1400 etc) and we do not want to mislead the public. As i said before, almost every major currency is loosing ground in this difficult times, where will be our value kept in: cars, real estate, stocks-bonds, $$$, euros, as LasVahGoose said: the people are just starting to be aware of the "golds power" to keep and to preserve their everything, because in the past the majority of people didn't have the necessity of taking care of themselves, they believed the governments, insurance companies and so on would do that,before everyone kept their money in bank accounts, now since the last economic breakdown (2008) i wonder how many still do? How to preserve the money's value? People are just starting to realise that and that's why gold will climb higher and higher.
  • #4,066
  • Apr 3, 2011 7:55am Apr 3, 2011 7:55am
Quoting beeb
I think the analogy is wrong and alarmist.


beeb
Sorry if you were alarmed beeb (LOL )

Price can do anything as we know.
The price bubble chart was something I happened across and thought it would get people thinking.

I am certainly not from the school that silver costs nothing to mine so it is worth nothing. The cost of mining something is not relevant. We all don't have silver mines.

I might be alarmed if there were a sharp fall in price. I would be alarmed if I had not prepared for it and had a trade plan with shorts involved. I would be beside myself if I came back to my charts after a week away to discover 25% had been chopped off the price over that period. For me a £1 stake yields £1000 for every dollar price moves.
  • #4,067
  • Apr 3, 2011 8:03am Apr 3, 2011 8:03am
Quoting six gun
Sorry if you were alarmed beeb (LOL )

Price can do anything as we know.
The price bubble chart was something I happened across and thought it would get people thinking.

I am certainly not from the school that silver costs nothing to mine so it is worth nothing. The cost of mining something is not relevant. We all don't have silver mines.

I might be alarmed if there were a sharp fall in price. I would be alarmed if I had not prepared for it and had a trade plan with shorts involved. I would be beside myself if I came back to my charts...

I'm certainly not alarmed - I've been doing this for far too long. There are plenty of newbies about and I was concerned that they might get the wrong idea....

I don't understand what your comment re a £1 stake means. Are you spreadbetting? Is that amount supposed to be a lot or a little? Don't answer if you don't want to - I certainly would never publicise the amounts of my trades.....

Glad we got throught the misunderstanding

beeb
  • #4,068
  • Apr 3, 2011 8:08am Apr 3, 2011 8:08am
Quoting musclemike
I do agree that silver has climbed up pretty quick comparing to gold, but as i "heard" lately, people who don't have the money to buy gold they buy silver and also silver is heavily used in production industries, so that might be an explanation.
We have to be careful when using the word bubble...because, at least in golds case, it has been used for so many times (1000, 1200,1400 etc) and we do not want to mislead the public. As i said before, almost every major currency is loosing ground in this difficult times, where will be our value kept...
I'm in complete agreement. The financial system is fcuk'd and it is only a matter of time. Maybe that time is extending a little if there is less easing on the cards. Easing means print more dollars. It is only a matter of time before those with something tangible say no to the USD. Then what? It will be a mess. The US will go bust immediately. The Fed can no longer just print more dollars and get away with it if the reserve currency isn't the USD. Call in the loans but it will be can't pay and then won't pay.
Do we have bags of corn in the garage? No we have highly concentrated value in stuff like gold and silver. The value of these against a bag of waste paper (fiat currency) just goes through the roof. Not that means much. What does it matter if gold trades at $10000000000000000000000000000000 an oz? if the $$$$ is waste paper?

There will be a drift and then a stampede to the likes of gold (and silver) but in the next few weeks before we start using dollar bills to light the fire with or wipe our a's. I can see silver running ahead of itself and a pull back (quite possible biggish percentage) looks ever likely.
  • #4,069
  • Apr 3, 2011 8:22am Apr 3, 2011 8:22am
Quoting beeb
I'm certainly not alarmed - I've been doing this for far too long. There are plenty of newbies about and I was concerned that they might get the wrong idea....

I don't understand what your comment re a £1 stake means. Are you spreadbetting? Is that amount supposed to be a lot or a little? Don't answer if you don't want to - I certainly would never publicise the amounts of my trades.....

Glad we got throught the misunderstanding

beeb
It is spread betting. In the UK betting gains are completely tax free. Losses cannot be deducted however!

The minimum "bet" with my spread betting broker is £1 per point. It is £1 for every 0.1 cents.

In other words the minimum bet (£1) I can make works out at £1000 for every dollar silver moves.

No need to do multiples on this but it is easy to see a big correction in price equals big bucks or pounds if you are on the right end of it.

I am not wishing a big drop but I can see price is running away and the more it does so the more uneasy I get. When it happens historically it will be an abrupt event. A nice big correction with me on the right end of it would be perfect. Because then I can go long again and collect the money on the way up.

If wishes were dishes..... (I'd be eating off gold plates)
  • #4,070
  • Edited 10:58am Apr 3, 2011 9:05am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting lilpip
she tested her projected monthly highs area early (37.03 area) March 7th and the 23rd.
she did up it a buck to 38.16 as she follow gold to its projected monthly highs @ 1450 area.
shes been waiting for the new quarter and month and its about showtime.
which way ya goin girl ?
moving with the trend, strait up like last quarters $12 move from $26-38?
thats $2 more than the previous quarter and the same goes for the entire range of 2009.

or looking down for quarterly, monthly support before hand ?
so fri. you tell me your heading north from $37.03.
I wont be convinced till your out the door @ 38.11 and on your way, I know your cunning, deceitful ways.
It sure be lady like if you'd reconsider and visit 3406-20 before you leave so we can strengthen our relationship.


mon.daily
38.11
37.36
36.61
weekly
38.80
36.50
34.20
monthly
39.91
34.06
28.18
quart.
41.46
31.05

questions about physical purchases. Its best to buy when shes looking for yearly support and yet not established.
example being golds 1320 we new to be quarterly support at 2011 open. So as we hung out and dipped below and 1320 support in question is one area to buy another is yearly support which would be considered after that 1297 (1 year)ave. and 1176 (3 year) ave.
silver @ 26.27 area.
once support was established the following month in feb. at its pivot (1355) and 27.74), then we go leveraged.

silver bubble sayers need to get educated with a bit more research.

Im buying physical @ monthly pivots , lows and quarterly pivots.
maybe a small amount @ weekly pivots just for fun, you know, to pick up a couple small shiny pieces.
  • #4,071
  • Apr 3, 2011 9:15am Apr 3, 2011 9:15am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,072
  • Apr 3, 2011 10:13am Apr 3, 2011 10:13am
worth a listen imo:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...tals_Wrap.html


beeb
  • #4,073
  • Apr 3, 2011 10:15am Apr 3, 2011 10:15am
in daily we are looking a long dodgi it is not going more over i m in short sell at 1428.65 i m looking to 1415 for take profit and if it breach that level then i will hold my position for 1400 level or may b more see my charts and look one hour and for hour chart i know middle east crisis but i think we are in bottom if the 1413 level now breach,,,,,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trading by EA
  • #4,074
  • Apr 3, 2011 10:52am Apr 3, 2011 10:52am
is abidjan war can effect on gold opening please if some one know then tell me
Trading by EA
  • #4,075
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:01pm Apr 3, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting clc4x
Attachment
Analysis of the weekly chart

A doji is an indecision candle.
Price opens and closes at the same price, thus neither the bulls nor the bears control the market.

Where a doji is at the top of a bull trend or the bottom of a bear trend it can indicate there is a shift in control of the market taking place.

There is an area of resistance in the market at this level. Look to the left and you will see the bars could not close above this level. If the doji had a longer lower wick and the body had managed to close above the level of resistance there is a decent chance price would move on up. The bears would have tried to take price down but the bulls took control from them and price moved up. As it is no specific market intent can be determined from this candle. If anything it is slightly bearish. See the previous candle is a spinning top. A small body in the middle of the candle. Again neither bears nor bulls have control of the market.

To go higher price must get above and close above the resistance level. A large bullish outside bar or a bullish pin bar closing above the resistance level would be good to see.

From a purely technical standpoint the chart is not giving you indication of where price is heading next. You need to wait and see. We are in a consolidation phase and we need price action to tell us in which direction a breakout is going to occur.

I STRONGLY recommend you read up on this sort of thing. You will be repaid many times over if you fully understand this subject. Suggest you read threads like the James16 thread. It is a massive massive thread but you will gain a lot.
  • #4,076
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:11pm Apr 3, 2011 12:11pm
Gold is clearly breaking to the upside, don't ask me why, just look at the weekly chart. The last week we had two attempts to hold it down, first by pure price manipulation and on friday by good USA unemplyment numbers. They both failed miserably, they just slowed it down a little. We're gonna see 1500$ before the end of April i guess.
  • #4,077
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:28pm Apr 3, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting GiorgioM
Gold is clearly breaking to the upside, don't ask me why, just look at the weekly chart. The last week we had two attempts to hold it down, first by pure price manipulation and on friday by good USA unemplyment numbers. They both failed miserably, they just slowed it down a little. We're gonna see 1500$ before the end of April i guess.
Sorry man but where is this coming from???

Price is NOT clearly doing anything of the sort.

Looking at the weekly chart the most recent bar is a doji. What does that say? It says price does not know where it is going.
Price is consolidating - it has hardly moved for two weeks.
The week before was a very poor bullish pinbar above the BRN (big round number) 1400 level. Clearly the market was going nowhere with that because it did not.

There is NO chart basis to say price is Clearly going higher other than we are in a long bullish trend. But if you want to jump on this up escalator you should have proper indications to do this so that you stack the odds in your favour and you are not faced with a draw down and your stop loss getting triggered.

You are clearly guessing, so you are clearly gambling and then you will blow your account.
  • #4,078
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:40pm Apr 3, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting mmudasir
is abidjan war can effect on gold opening please if some one know then tell me
Randgold maintains big increase in gold production outlook despite Cote d'Ivoire problems 31 Mar 2011 14:36 GMT. Google this.

The sites it comes off a pay membership so I can't see the details.
  • #4,079
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:40pm Apr 3, 2011 12:40pm
Daily Gold looks to me to be consolidating in a bullish trend....There is very strong physical buying in the London spot market (obviously a different beast to the COMEX) and we seem to be seeing a higher floor coming in. IMO it was bullish that we did not see lower prices maintained through NFP and end of month/quarter/opex.....

I'm anticipating higher prices in the near future and will as always look to the shorter timeframe charts to guide me to the longer patterns.

beeb
  • #4,080
  • Apr 3, 2011 12:42pm Apr 3, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting six gun
Randgold maintains big increase in gold production outlook despite Cote d'Ivoire problems 31 Mar 2011 14:36 GMT. Google this.

The sites it comes off a pay membership so I can't see the details.

However sad it is for the Ivorian people I'm afraid that IMO the precious metals market is not going to be overly affected by their travails. It may be different for the Cocoa market - I don't know enough to say whether it will be.

beeb
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