DislikedMy dad alone put some of his money to buy 10 kg of gold when gold is at around $ 600 / troy ounce. He is still holding it now.Ignored
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
- #4,023
- Apr 1, 2011 5:34am Apr 1, 2011 5:34am
The current society is extremely dependent on a very efficient and well functioning production mechanism, logistics and all. Just think about Japan. If something goes wrong, we may see entire countries in chaos. The problem is that all those catastrophes seem to happen so far away... It's inteligent to have a plan B, some way to guarantee survival if many thing go wrong at the same time. That's why many of us pay some kind of health insurance, isn't it?
I remember, as a kid, when a new Brazilian government took the power in 1989 as the first directly elected one, after the military putsch in 1964. There was some hope about a brilliant future for the country. The inflation was quite high at that time. Do you know what happened? First thing they did was to confiscate everyone's money from the bank accounts when the amount was over 50,000 (something like $10,000 or so, I'm not quite sure.) What I heard later is that many small companies went broke because they had no money to survive. By 1993 I started to work and my salary was adjusted every month by 40% to 70% (!!!!). You see how good that policy worked
. I'm talking about something that happened in our lifetime, not a tragedy from 100 years ago. If those people had the chance to DIVERSIFY their investments, they could have survived, economically speaking.I hope I didn't "pollute" the thread with this text...
-- * -- * -- * --
Back to the link, I opened the internal link about inflation charts. There is something very interesting there:
"Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) is a very good indicator of liquidity - GSR going up usually means that liquidity is getting tighter, and vice-versa." Sounds familiar? Brings QE2 to the mind? I remember that someone was trading long XAUXAG - well, if you hear something about US rate hikes, maybe it's time to enter that trade.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
- #4,027
- Apr 1, 2011 7:56am Apr 1, 2011 7:56am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
It's too early to say anything, but we may see gold moving to the down side (or ranging) in the middle term. Again: it's still too early.
prob just another chance to get long
see what develops
beeb
PS newbies that is NOT advice to do anything...........
- #4,028
- Apr 1, 2011 8:02am Apr 1, 2011 8:02am
Last time it was boring. This time it's more fun.
Well, it seems that the market liked the numbers and expect a hike in the US interest rates / end of QE: USDJPY and USDCHF are high, EURUSD and GBPUSD low, gold also low. It's too early to say anything, but we may see gold moving to the down side (or ranging) in the middle term. Again: it's still too early.
- #4,031
- Apr 1, 2011 8:27am Apr 1, 2011 8:27am
great thread - already bookmarked
I want to ask your guys advice on the best way to trade silver.
I've just opened an Oanda account to trade. Do you guys trade with lots with a stop loss? or do you just let the silver ride as you know most likely it's just going up? Is it ok using a margin account (50:1) ?
advice very much appreciated
Firstly you must learn to trade before you trade with real money.
Most new traders blow their accounts and drop out.
You must learn price action. If you cannot read the charts you are simply guessing and if you are guessing you are gambling and you will blow your account.
On something like silver you will blow your account.
I can see why silver looks attractive. Get on the escalator and take the ride up. Looks like a no brainer.
It is not clear how long the up trend will go on for. Euroscum believes there is a bubble and to be honest it looks like there is a bubble.
Bubbles attract mug punters to pile in and then they get burst by smart money.
What I am saying is a correction is overdue. The silver price was manipulated in the past (this is not just my opinion there is quite a lot of fact behind this). Silver appears to have broken free of this but this new found freedom has gone to her head and she is running up the hill very fast. She will run out of breath and probably take a tumble, rolling down the hill part way.
you must demo and demo and demo. Three consecutive months in demo profit. So if it takes 1 year to get to that stage then so be it.
Then don't be trading on 15 and 5 minute charts. They are another killer.
Do not be deceived by traders who use fancy indicators and talk about some wave or other stuff. Their charts are very colourful with bats wings and other cobblers but my mind it is all magic and tricks with no substance.
Go to threads and sites that will teach you price action so you can read a chart and know what is happening. If you cannot do this you will be guessing and this is gambling and you will blow your account.
There is a lot of money lost in this game so some people are making plenty. Get yourself into a position where you are making it.
I suggest you read threads like James16 here. There is the silent method on FF as well. Price action type stuff.
Nick B's website is good. Nial Fuller's site is good. Just google these names and you will get there.
They are all basic PA stuff.
Read the charts - steer clear of times when there are big economic data announcements (see calendar on FF) and you do not have to do much if any fundamental stuff.
- #4,033
- Apr 1, 2011 8:36am Apr 1, 2011 8:36am
harvest3r,
i have a few question for you,
1,how to identify/predict the ratio of silver/gold.which one more bullish or bearish?the most important how to predict the ratio movement day by day..now it look silver become slow
2,Do you have any information about the ratio?.is it necessary do a technical analysis on the chart that you gave to me?
so far i like correlation,small profit but consistent..
You asked the wrong person
. First because I have only 6 months as a trader, so I miss the experience to tell you anything. Second because I don't trade based on any kind of prediction, technical or fundamental analysis. Third because I rarely trade silver anyway. I just started to buy some physical silver and that's it. My interest in all those technical/fundamental analysis is based on curiosity - a bit like Euroscum. Eventually something can be added to the trade strategy, but the basis will continue to be some kind of numerical analysis (or whatever I can call it).1) impossible. If someone tells you it's possible, call the ambulance
. Personally I would say: never trust any prediction. Don't ever listen to them. But that's just me.That text about the Gold/Silver Ratio (from today) is very interesting, it can give you a clue. For example, the possibility of a hike in US interest rates may decrease the USD liquidity... what does it mean? XAUXAG goes up. Take a look at the chart after NFP, what do you see? Where is it pointing? Does it fit to the proposition?
There is much more to explore. Google may help... If you find something interesting, just post here.
2) Except for the XAUXAG chart itself, I don't have anything to add.
Do you want to know what I think (roughly) about technical analysis? Here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639
Anyway, as long as you have a chart, you can apply all the existing analysis and indicators: S/R, Fibbonacci, Bollinger Bands, EMA, SMA, Pitchfork, Parabolic SAR, everything.
The best thing you can do is to read the links posted on this thread. Yes, there are many! Some of them may be connected to the Gold/Silver subject. And again, if you find something interesting, just post here.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
- #4,037
- Apr 1, 2011 9:10am Apr 1, 2011 9:10am
Hahaha...my thoughts exactly, you got to love the gold to appreciate those kind of things
I could have closed everything with profit at 1418. Now I have to wait for 1423 in order to close the current longs.@fawaol:
nice to hear about profits
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
- #4,038
- Apr 1, 2011 9:12am Apr 1, 2011 9:12am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #4,039
- Apr 1, 2011 9:21am Apr 1, 2011 9:21am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
I missed a long at 1412.5 by $0.15. Oh, how I hate it!
unlucky harvest
do you mind me asking if that level was off the back of anything in particular?
beeb
- #4,040
- Apr 1, 2011 9:39am Apr 1, 2011 9:39am
unlucky harvest
do you mind me asking if that level was off the back of anything in particular?
beeb
.Anyway, I run two accounts in paralell and the second one got a long at 1413.5
Less bad.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."