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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #3,601
  • Mar 15, 2011 9:50am Mar 15, 2011 9:50am
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,602
  • Mar 15, 2011 9:52am Mar 15, 2011 9:52am
Not sure what he's talking about.

In 2008 we dipped from 22 apx to $7xx
but in the chart below you can see it was not in a month almost a year...

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2008.gif http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2009.gif
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2010.gif http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2011.gif

Quoting highlander2
Are you talking about a previous selloff as I think a few people are confused?

highlander2
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,603
  • Mar 15, 2011 10:07am Mar 15, 2011 10:07am
well what a day, Margin call on one of the accounts by 21 pips after a 450 pips fall.

There are 3 types of traders, the dumb, its the one that its always falling in the same mistake ( no use of stop losses, yes, thats me ); the inteligent, it learns from his errors ( thats me too, after scream at the mirror and call me a bunch of names i will not replicate here ); and the wise, thats the one that learns with the errors of the others.

guys, be the wise one a use stop losses, have a plan, trade your plan.
altought im still in the green, all my live trading suspended until im shure of what im doing.
  • #3,604
  • Mar 15, 2011 10:13am Mar 15, 2011 10:13am
I do not know if any of you considers trading the Emini's... In that case, beware of the company called EMINIPIVOTTRADING. They are crooks! They sell you a "method" ( 10 pages) for $385.00 where nothing is disclosed and at the end tell you that if you want to use their method, you have to subscribe to a monthly signals service for $ 85.00 a month!!!
  • #3,605
  • Mar 15, 2011 10:33am Mar 15, 2011 10:33am
Quoting nleitao
well what a day, Margin call on one of the accounts by 21 pips after a 450 pips fall.

There are 3 types of traders, the dumb, its the one that its always falling in the same mistake ( no use of stop losses, yes, thats me ); the inteligent, it learns from his errors ( thats me too, after scream at the mirror and call me a bunch of names i will not replicate here ); and the wise, thats the one that learns with the errors of the others.

guys, be the wise one a use stop losses, have a plan, trade your plan.
altought im still in the green, all my...
Im sorry to here this, It seems you know what you need to do, yet for whatever reason you cant.

Plenty people will just say "you must use stops" but I think you already know this. This is a psychological problem that you will have to overcome, Im afraid I have no easy answer
  • #3,606
  • Mar 15, 2011 10:37am Mar 15, 2011 10:37am
Quoting beeb
You said "Fun is over for now. I have to go swimming with my kids. I want to stay for the US session but family first and it is has been quite a good day so far.

Some food for thought I posted previously about silver tops previously. I am ready with the shorts after a rally.

Silver plunged over 35% in just over a month, a mind-blowing selloff. And lest you think that’s extreme, it really isn’t for silver. Its average post-top correction ran about 30% over a span of less than a month and a half. Yes, under 6 weeks"




Firstly - I'm not...

sorry beeb, i thought you were being saracastic about telling me to get a calulator, I was in a rush to go swimming and I can see I was not clear. Apologies.

Here is the chart of previous tops and the total loss from top after 6 weeks, by then it has usually run its course.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver_crash.jpg Size: 156 KB
  • #3,607
  • Mar 15, 2011 10:39am Mar 15, 2011 10:39am
Quoting Euroscum
sorry beeb, i thought you were being saracastic about telling me to get a calulator, I was in a rush to go swimming and I can see I was not clear. Apologies.
No probs Euroscum hope you had fun...

I was just a bit confused - as it seems were others...

beeb
  • #3,608
  • Mar 15, 2011 10:59am Mar 15, 2011 10:59am
Quoting highlander2
Im sorry to here this, It seems you know what you need to do, yet for whatever reason you cant.

Plenty people will just say "you must use stops" but I think you already know this. This is a psychological problem that you will have to overcome, Im afraid I have no easy answer
yep, thats just that, i useded mental stops, but thats not enough when you are not in front of the PC

no problem dude, that was money i could afford to lose and my first margin call, well the rest of the day will be passed on the sun with a cold one ( ok, maybe two, no more, i still need to drive ) on the hand. ahh life is good! at least here in Portugal
  • #3,609
  • Mar 15, 2011 11:01am Mar 15, 2011 11:01am
Quoting XTrade
This turned out to be right on target.

You never know what but it's always something.

Debating on whether to add or not. I'd say the selling is over for today...
Unless something horrible happens.

Swissy has dipped into the 9100s. Rejected at 9350 then 9250 fell out yesterday!
Hi, XTrade. Do you mind if you share your trading system for Gold? I'm still newbie here, so I expect inputs from gurus like you, beeb (thx for the pitchfork), euroscum, orbital and others.

I do swing trade, so I use bollinger, trendlines, fibo, and moving averages for support/resistance. But somehow my loss > profit, I understand that my trading system needs fixing. Due to money management, I have to set stops at -3 usd from xau/usd.
  • #3,610
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:13pm Mar 15, 2011 12:13pm
Now some news say that gold price fell due of the disaster in Japan.

While other news were saying the other day gold price could go up, because due of the disaster in japan, people were going to buy more gold.

It's always incredible how different points of views, experts can have.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #3,611
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:35pm Mar 15, 2011 12:35pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
It's always incredible how different points of views, experts can have.
If they all were always right the market would immediately explode. Or implode. Or (more likely) the market would not care about the "experts" and simply do what it wants, making 50% of their predictions always wrong. And 50% of the experts who now realize that they are often wrong would then try to be right when the others are wrong.

And the market still would not do what the "experts" want.
  • #3,612
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:38pm Mar 15, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting nleitao
yep, thats just that, i useded mental stops, but thats not enough when you are not in front of the PC

no problem dude, that was money i could afford to lose and my first margin call, well the rest of the day will be passed on the sun with a cold one ( ok, maybe two, no more, i still need to drive ) on the hand. ahh life is good! at least here in Portugal
Today needs to be a turning point in your trading. You have learned a lesson, now its time to put this to bed for good. If you are not able to be at your computer, then its time to start using SL's, you may be whipsawed, but this is better than annihilation. Its better to be losing with good MM than winning with bad. I would also suggest lowering the risk you take on each trade.

Time to put this behind you...forever.
  • #3,613
  • Mar 15, 2011 2:21pm Mar 15, 2011 2:21pm
yes, you are right even with the mental SLs sometimes i ended up stop worse than if i used on the opening.

Yes the lowering risk was already predicted, was just waiting the positions i had open to acheive TP for me to change broker, this broker do not let me use smaller positions; time to change now. and yes, this is a turning point, it has to be. TURNING POINT OR BURST! lol

guys, trade wise and "dont overtrade"!
  • #3,614
  • Mar 15, 2011 2:26pm Mar 15, 2011 2:26pm
interim.

Support 1390

resistance 1406
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,615
  • Mar 15, 2011 2:33pm Mar 15, 2011 2:33pm
Less is More! K.I.S.S.

Today was not really that big of a deal. There are major world crisis' happening, New Zealand now Japan.

World markets sold off. Gold shed 40 bucks after making yet another record.
One could theorize this correction could have come after the high was made by bears pulling shorts.

Yet like I said, if it's not ONE THING it's ANOTHER!!!

I am still holding from 1406 around 1412, Had a feeling there might be a dip and set that 1380 order which got filled earlier SO now I am basically even.

I see today as a nice buying opportunity.

We will see how tonight goes.
I'd like to be topside of 1406 within the next few sessions.



Quoting nleitao

guys, trade wise and "dont overtrade"!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,616
  • Mar 15, 2011 2:48pm Mar 15, 2011 2:48pm
I see short term upside resistance @ 1403 and more importantly 1406-1407.
  • #3,617
  • Mar 15, 2011 2:49pm Mar 15, 2011 2:49pm
No not at all, I have written how and why I trade gold many times in this thread but it has been a while so I suppose we could refresh the thread with all the new members and all!

I remember when It was just me posting every day in here. I've seen many come and go. So before anything, I advise any new traders to demo trade gold first and read about the fundamentals, look at some historical charts.

A lot has changed in the past 5 years in what affects gold day to day.
There is no holy grail, and the only person you can really trust with your trades is YOU.

Tonight I should have some free time to write. I constantly try new things but it's pretty basic.

Also - always test new ideas / strategies on a demo before risking real capital.

I haven't updated it in a while but for now take a look at the first post in the thread, there are some great setups I've posted in there with follow ups.
Here's the link
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...99&postcount=1

Quoting bLiTzCaT
Hi, XTrade. Do you mind if you share your trading system for Gold? I'm still newbie here, so I expect inputs from gurus like you, beeb (thx for the pitchfork), euroscum, orbital and others.

I do swing trade, so I use bollinger, trendlines, fibo, and moving averages for support/resistance. But somehow my loss > profit, I understand that my trading system needs fixing. Due to money management, I have to set stops at -3 usd from xau/usd.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,618
  • Mar 15, 2011 3:39pm Mar 15, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting SunTrader
I see short term upside resistance @ 1403 and more importantly 1406-1407.
Interesting, I'm looking for PA around 1407-05 range or even 1401 - 03. My thinking is we maybe are going for a touch of the weekly trendline.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #3,619
  • Mar 15, 2011 3:45pm Mar 15, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Interesting, I'm looking for PA around 1407-05 range or even 1401 - 03. My thinking is we maybe are going for a touch of the weekly trendline.
could you please send chart?
thanks
  • #3,620
  • Edited 6:20pm Mar 15, 2011 3:45pm | Edited 6:20pm
Have been on the sidelines today..

Note that GC bottomed a couple of bucks above the 50 MA. Still feel we could have further to fall - I don't like the look of the 14,3,3 daily stochastics and have observed that when they trigger down and fall through 80 they often continue down to a reading under 20. They are currently 35 or so and take a bit of time to turn - being trailing indicators it is conceivable that they will not need much more weakness in price to accomplish this. Am seeing next level of support - if 50 MA fails - as trendline support around 1350 which is where the 150 MA is.

beeb
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