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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #3,561
  • Edited 3:52am Mar 15, 2011 3:44am | Edited 3:52am
Nikkei: -10,5%
European stocks: around -3% at opening

Even gold went down after the talks that radioactivity may reach (or already reached) Tokyo.

When gold goes down during a crisis, even for a short time, it sounds like panic for me, it sounds like: "Well, cash is king. The situation is nasty, I'm out, my money too!"

I would like to know from someone with more experience at the market, especially at previous crisis: what should we expect? Will the "safe-haven" behavior still work for gold?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #3,562
  • Mar 15, 2011 4:11am Mar 15, 2011 4:11am
Quoting harvest3r
Nikkei: -10,5%
European stocks: around -3% at opening

Even gold went down after the talks that radioactivity may reach (or already reached) Tokyo.

When gold goes down during a crisis, even for a short time, it sounds like panic for me, it sounds like: "Well, cash is king. The situation is nasty, I'm out, my money too!"

I would like to know from someone with more experience at the market, especially at previous crisis: what should we expect? Will the "safe-haven" behavior still work for gold?
Correct, gold does sell off in a panic to pay for other positions and more selling makes more selling etc. Gold only works in the case of absolute disaster, then it will go to the moon by which time it is better to go and get tinned food and guns.
  • #3,563
  • Mar 15, 2011 4:37am Mar 15, 2011 4:37am
Am sitting on my hands today - markets are very jumpy and I don't see the need to trade when logic has gone out the window. I don't trade on hunches....

beeb
  • #3,564
  • Mar 15, 2011 4:42am Mar 15, 2011 4:42am
Would it b right to go long on XAU/USD at 1410 levels.. or is it gonna go further down...
  • #3,565
  • Mar 15, 2011 4:47am Mar 15, 2011 4:47am
Quoting beeb
Am sitting on my hands today - markets are very jumpy and I don't see the need to trade when logic has gone out the window. I don't trade on hunches....

beeb
Gosh, that is my favorite time to trade and I'm a big fan using Intuition. But at least you know yourself well enough to make that kind of call. Lots don't.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #3,566
  • Mar 15, 2011 4:52am Mar 15, 2011 4:52am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Gosh, that is my favorite time to trade and I'm a big fan using Intuition. But at least you know yourself well enough to make that kind of call. Lots don't.

I am short XAG. There has been logic and signs from 36-34 (200 pips that it is in a range trade. Going to be very careful the closer we get to 34 though.
  • #3,567
  • Mar 15, 2011 4:52am Mar 15, 2011 4:52am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Gosh, that is my favorite time to trade and I'm a big fan using Intuition. But at least you know yourself well enough to make that kind of call. Lots don't.
Each to their own Las......Besides I feel a bit cheap trying to make money when others are suffering - i'm not Gordon Gecko lol....

I like trends that have some kind of logic rather than just tossing a coin.

But good trading anyway

beeb
  • #3,568
  • Mar 15, 2011 4:58am Mar 15, 2011 4:58am
Quoting beeb
Each to their own Las......Besides I feel a bit cheap trying to make money when others are suffering - i'm not Gordon Gecko lol....

I like trends that have some kind of logic rather than just tossing a coin.

But good trading anyway

beeb

I can understand from that then that you have a long bias and do not like range trading then.
  • #3,569
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:00am Mar 15, 2011 5:00am
Quoting Euroscum
Correct, gold does sell off in a panic to pay for other positions and more selling makes more selling etc. Gold only works in the case of absolute disaster, then it will go to the moon by which time it is better to go and get tinned food and guns.
Unfortunately it's not far from what the Japanese are experiencing right now . Really sad.

I also see it in this way. Actually there are something like 4 levels of risk behavior, IMHO:
1) full risk mode: nobody cares about gold [XAU DOWN]
2) limited risk mode: people get burned in the market, long gold positions are opened [XAU UP]
3) panic mode: sell-off in gold in search for liquidity [XAU DOWN]
4) apocalypse mode: money is worthless, gold is "everything" [XAU UP]

It seems that we are somewhere between level 2 and 3, far away from the way back to 1. DAX is falling almost 6% and some of the main German financial sites/newspapers are mentioning a radiation leak which may (or will) reach Tokyo.


@beeb: intelligent decision. I removed all my orders on the lower timeframe. Not sure about my open longs on the higher timeframe, though.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #3,570
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:06am Mar 15, 2011 5:06am
@harvest3r

I don''t know... Gold and Silver looked like they were going to correct before the disaster in Japan. So the correction appears to still be in play regardless.

Why? It is a good question.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #3,571
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:12am Mar 15, 2011 5:12am
I have gold trading into a wedge pattern with 1406 as the lower boundary.

I'm just trading what i see.

big 4hr bullish RSI convergence and a huge 15min convergence.

I'm long from 1406 looking for short term bullish moves.

Trailing a tight stop.

If it breaks lower i see a buying opportunity at 1392 which is the 38.2% fib fo the main thrust since February.
  • #3,572
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:16am Mar 15, 2011 5:16am
Quoting Dolph
If it breaks lower i see a buying opportunity at 1392 which is the 38.2% fib fo the main thrust since February.
I'm short from 1425 and looking at 1380 - 1365 for TP and reverse. Already at BE, so I don't care what happens now.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #3,573
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:16am Mar 15, 2011 5:16am
Quoting Euroscum
I can understand from that then that you have a long bias and do not like range trading then.
I have a long bias from fundamental reasons and have been long physical for over a decade.
I have no bias either way when trading shorter term - I just don't feel the need to trade when markets are behaving irrationally in TA terms. If I start to see price respecting trendlines I will start to look again. Until then I am happier not to toss the coin. As Las said PM's were in correction before this and continue to do so - however extreme conditions might for example provoke extreme reactions from central govts and therefore my TA might be rendered useless. I don't NEED to trade so I won't - but each to their own

beeb
  • #3,574
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:22am Mar 15, 2011 5:22am
What is TA beeb? Trendline Analysis?

thanks
  • #3,575
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:24am Mar 15, 2011 5:24am
Quoting Dolph
What is TA beeb? Trendline Analysis?

thanks
Technical Analysis...
  • #3,576
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:30am Mar 15, 2011 5:30am
Of course.
  • #3,577
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:41am Mar 15, 2011 5:41am
Quoting beeb
- however extreme conditions might for example provoke extreme reactions from central govts and therefore my TA might be rendered useless.

beeb
For example is some "agency" trying to hold ES above 1250 or is it round-number-itis?????

beeb
  • #3,578
  • Mar 15, 2011 5:45am Mar 15, 2011 5:45am
Quoting Euroscum
I am short XAG. There has been logic and signs from 36-34 (200 pips that it is in a range trade. Going to be very careful the closer we get to 34 though.
couldnt close longs 22 18 05 at 29 because my greed. now we r here. ıt seems drop some more
good luck to you
  • #3,579
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:25am Mar 15, 2011 6:25am
Quoting riko2705
couldnt close longs 22 18 05 at 29 because my greed. now we r here. ıt seems drop some more
good luck to you

I'm increasingly becoming a fan of trailing a stop on a relevant time frame and just allowing the market to take me out. This eliminates greed.
  • #3,580
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:27am Mar 15, 2011 6:27am
Took a small loss (0.3%)on the trade I took at 1414, got out just below 10 after moving my stop up.

Pretty much in a situation where anything can happen.

No idea where this is going, 1400 breaking could be pretty bearish, just have to wach and wait for a setup...long or short....
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