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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #3,401
  • Mar 10, 2011 1:19pm Mar 10, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting Euroscum
check out every time we reached a new high and look at that big red bar on the last one. Also the dow and everything else is tanking. Commods are being driven by speculation, that includes gold and silver too. Sounds like you have been reading too many blogs on buying gold.
good observation...
  • #3,402
  • Mar 10, 2011 1:30pm Mar 10, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting riko2705
you are brave man
good luck

What I do has nothing to do with bravery, but thank you anyway
  • #3,403
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:06pm Mar 10, 2011 2:06pm
Relax, girls, relax...

Some of you were "lucky" with your shorts. Well done. Unfortunately I had none and I couldn't open shorts just like that, it's against my strategy.

I caught the other side with 140 oz long and closed almost everything @1409 (slightly above BE) ... just to see a jump to 1416 less than 10 minutes later Hundreds of $ missed in such a stupid way.

The stuff with the big red candles, yes, I was checking that. If the pattern repeats, we have to adjust for some days of consolidation and the short-term direction is unknown.

I'm more for the uptrend. Gold is not down today - EVERYTHING is down. I'm sure that all the movement today is profit-taking + reallocation of capital. All this money will be reinvested and some of it will go back to gold. Let's wait and see. I will try to hold my longs instead of scalping them.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #3,404
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:10pm Mar 10, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting Euroscum
check out every time we reached a new high and look at that big red bar on the last one. Also the dow and everything else is tanking. Commods are being driven by speculation, that includes gold and silver too. Sounds like you have been reading too many blogs on buying gold.

And you see it's going up again now?

but that means nothing.. What matters is that the year will finish way above 1500. That is what really matters here.

You say that the year will finish below 1450? Let's see who is right at the end of the year. Time will tell.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #3,405
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:16pm Mar 10, 2011 2:16pm
harvest

fyi info there is huge spot buying of physical ranged against comex selling - as I mentioned earlier.

Lee Trevino said "The more I practice the luckier I get......"
Don't trade if you rely on luck
The 10min chart said sell at 1430 and by using trailing stops a good trade was there.....
Now I'm small long from that same chart and up a few bucks with better than b/e stop
No luck involved.
Is 140oz big or small for you - personally I wouldn't answer that lol

beeb

edit - stopped out of the long for $7
  • #3,406
  • Edited 3:17pm Mar 10, 2011 2:21pm | Edited 3:17pm
and mapleleaf - it sounds like you are an investor not a trader

traders move in and out of vehicles - investors don't...

if you want to comment on traders maybe you should try and understand the timeframes they are working...

beeb

fwiw i'm a long time bull on gold and have been for a decade - i think it will go considerably higher this year. however i also trade gold and have made nearly $30 today shorting from 1430 and going long from 1405 and am currently flat - doesn't alter my view on gold longterm, but i made some dosh in the meantime....
i don't usually specify numbers as i think it's impolite but i'm breaking a habit in order to illustrate a point.......so apologies
  • #3,407
  • Mar 10, 2011 5:37pm Mar 10, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting beeb
Lee Trevino said "The more I practice the luckier I get......"
Don't trade if you rely on luck
The 10min chart said sell at 1430 and by using trailing stops a good trade was there.....
Now I'm small long from that same chart and up a few bucks with better than b/e stop
No luck involved.
Is 140oz big or small for you - personally I wouldn't answer that lol
@beeb: that's why I used double quotes on "luck". I don't believe that anyone of you entered shorts today just by chance or depending on HOPE to be successful (even though, in a sense, every profitable trade is luck - that's why I used that word).

But you are absolutely right. A trader must never rely on luck. He must know what he is doing and recognize the possible risks before entering a position at all.

140 oz is big. Quite big . That's why I was too quick to close it. It was somehow clear that we would go back above 1410, but I preferred to stick to the strategy. It's a matter of risk management. For my shame... the profit was $10 . Imagine! 140 oz for only $10 profit!



@MapleLeaf: hopefully you understood the position of some traders here about shorts and longs. I will be as impolite as beeb and say that I made $15... shorting @1416 after the bounce from 1403. What an audacity!!!! And I am still keeping longs - AT THE SAME TIME. Most of the guys here are bullish on gold, like you. But it doesn't mean that we cannot use some opportunities to short. After all, the pips are worth the same in both directions. No reason to get offended. The market has enough offenses waiting for us

May gold be above 1414 tomorrow. Good night.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #3,408
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:38pm Mar 10, 2011 7:38pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi all, silver has reached my much awaited 36.36 level. I advise short from here. TP1= 21.35 This would begin a MAJOR bear cycle on silver. Happy trading!
Meshach
It's amazing how seemingly un-noticed this post has been. Maybe someone should draw a horizontal line on 36.36? We are yet to see a single day close above this level since price hit it and we've had a degree two swing high form on daily tf also. Hmmmnn . . . the bull run for silver is over! Meshach.
  • #3,409
  • Mar 10, 2011 8:41pm Mar 10, 2011 8:41pm
Hi guys, what do you think of re-entering short from the test of the broken trendline?
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  • #3,410
  • Edited Jun 22, 2018 11:12pm Mar 10, 2011 9:04pm | Edited Jun 22, 2018 11:12pm
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Using korharmonics gartley indicator to see a bullish formation on 1 hour gold.

So with that I decide to buy silver. I also use multiple period linear regressions. The point of confluence at the bottom (black, brown and purple lines) can forecast strong moves. The lookback periods are 72, 120 and 480.
Thus, I am long silver at 35.40 let's see what happens.

Unfortunately I can't share it since its commercial, but there is a COG indi that can sort of do the same thing.

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  • #3,411
  • Mar 10, 2011 9:55pm Mar 10, 2011 9:55pm
Quoting Blud4oilPrgm
Attachment

Using korharmonics gartley indicator to see a bullish formation on 1 hour gold.

So with that I decide to buy silver. I also use multiple period linear regressions. The point of confluence at the bottom (black, brown and purple lines) can forecast strong moves. The lookback periods are 72, 120 and 480.
Thus, I am long silver at 35.40 let's see what happens.

Unfortunately I can't share it since its commercial, but there is a COG indi that can sort of do the same thing.
I expect a retrace to the upside on silver today as silver has done much more than its average weekly range. It also hit a down channel lower extreme around london close yesterday. The main resistance is @ 36.36
  • #3,412
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:44pm Mar 10, 2011 11:44pm
Quoting harvest3r
@MapleLeaf: hopefully you understood the position of some traders here about shorts and longs. I will be as impolite as beeb and say that I made $15... shorting @1416 after the bounce from 1403. What an audacity!!!! And I am still keeping longs - AT THE SAME TIME. Most of the guys here are bullish on gold, like you. But it doesn't mean that we cannot use some opportunities to short. After all, the pips are worth the same in both directions. No reason to get offended. The market has enough offenses waiting for us

May gold be above 1414...
No problem man, no offense taken. I agree that Gold will keep growing all year, of course with some bounces. I just can't stand that some people say that silver and gold started a major bear cycle and that it will fall non-stop from now on. Obviously these people don't understand what's going on.

And of course, FOREX is some kind of roulette casino for some people, gambling for others and a strategy based on study for others.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #3,413
  • Mar 11, 2011 12:01am Mar 11, 2011 12:01am
Quoting beeb
The 10min chart said sell at 1430 and by using trailing stops a good trade was there.....

Just wondering, why do you say that the 10 minute chart at 1430 was telling you to sell??

Really wondering. What did you see that made you so sure?

Or are you saying this, now that it has happened.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #3,414
  • Edited 12:48am Mar 11, 2011 12:30am | Edited 12:48am
Quoting MapleLeaf
No problem man, no offense taken. I agree that Gold will keep growing all year, of course with some bounces. I just can't stand that some people say that silver and gold started a major bear cycle and that it will fall non-stop from now on. Obviously these people don't understand what's going on.

And of course, FOREX is some kind of roulette casino for some people, gambling for others and a strategy based on study for others.

I can give you some good reasons. People said house prices only go up, we saw where that ended up. Silver has doubled in a short amount of time, silver is no different from anything else. Silver costs 5 dollars to dig out of the ground and is selling at 35.

Look at the 200 MDA on silver, for the sake of argument I will post a chart for you.

If you look at previous surges like this, it is very very volatile. When silver corrects from a surge like this it is absolutely brutal. Your face will be burned off and you will be crying for your mamma if you are holding on to the stuff.

For some info on past info on silver corrections

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/silvtop.htm

My last word is remember, it is never "different this time", markets correct from too much speculation. Maybe it is not now but it looks like it could be.
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  • #3,415
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:05am Mar 11, 2011 1:05am
good luck
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  • #3,416
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:24am Mar 11, 2011 1:24am
Quoting riko2705
good luck

Normally I would agree with you but the SPX is selling off, if it continues it will take PM with it.
  • #3,417
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:33am Mar 11, 2011 1:33am
Quoting MapleLeaf
Just wondering, why do you say that the 10 minute chart at 1430 was telling you to sell??

Really wondering. What did you see that made you so sure?

Or are you saying this, now that it has happened.
Mapleleaf - I don't take offense provided you were not being rude

The reason I sold came partly from the 20 and 240 min charts I had been posting which showed price failing to hold support in the fork. I confirmed it by looking at a proprietary system on the 10min....I followed price closely with stops and when I saw a warning line of the fork give support lower down I was prepared for some kind of bounce. Because the bounce breached the proprietary system to the upside I closed the shorts and opened a long.....

beeb
  • #3,418
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:48am Mar 11, 2011 1:48am
Quoting Euroscum
Normally I would agree with you but the SPX is selling off, if it continues it will take PM with it.
u r right. this is possible. ıt would test 3. time and it would be 1395....
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  • #3,419
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:54am Mar 11, 2011 1:54am
Quoting riko2705
u r right. this is possible. ıt would test 3. time and it would be 1395....

Sentiment is changing now, people have been mega bullish and complacent on equities which is fantastic for PM's, the only way I can see an upward continuation in gold is if we get a reversal in the markets. This sell off is way overdue,

Asia was down overnight but it that was more a reaction to wall street's close. If we have another down day in equities I hazzard a guess that we are going to see another downround in PM's. Also it is a feaky friday so anything can happen.
  • #3,420
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:58am Mar 11, 2011 2:58am
Essential reading every day - particularly today.....

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com

beeb
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