XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

I'm not putting any limits on how high or how long this bull run is going go/last. 1500, 2000, 2500 ??? lets face it, who really knows?

GOLD will keep Bullish Trend,well,Only BUY ON GOLD.

unsupported assertions are about as useful as a chocolate teapot.....

beeb


(irony intentional)

Market is Orcheastrated. only 13 clan know this,we just figure where is the PA go,but A professional trade wont care the market where goes,even bullish or bearish he also can take profit.

This may be a factor in long term gold prices.

China recently announced 13% increase in Military spending.

So,

China sucks up the worlds resources and manufacturing base, it builds a dirty big military and then as the western world is reducing its military spending China decides to 'broaden its horizons' some what.

Specificers


i'm not worried - i spent the weekend making a new hat out of tinfoil


if you have something substantive to say i'll raise one of the protective flaps

LOL, beeb, history has all the substantive information i need to know.

Highlander2 that was a close call last week. I had thought about putting my S/L under 1410 last week but i took the loss instead. now i regret it. I Better figure something out because its bound to happen to me again.

Sorry beeb did'nt read your post properly you were talking to specifiers. whoops. I was still half asleep.

Brent and Crude prices rising this morning. 117.22 and 106.17 respectively. Maybe they'll support a good break higher.

Suntrader gave a good reply.

Interesting, I was checking the weekly and monthly chart exactly on this weekend and comparing the price increase in USD, EUR and Brazilian Real (BRL). The chart looks parabolic for USD and EUR, but XAU/BRL is quite linear, about 15% increase per year since 2001. That's not much, considering that the basic interest rate is ~12% and has been much higher in the past. From the Brazilian point of view (and maybe also true for many other currencies), gold is still not in an overbought area - even though a correction may happen at any time (against all currencies).

Back to your question, 2004 and 2005 were quite OK, we were still inside the 1990's range. What I don't understand is the year 2006. If the uptrend would start in 2007 (beginning of the subprime crisis), that would be understandable, but the trend began a little earlier. Maybe one of the reasons is that some clever people saw the huge US military spending + growing deficit and jumped into gold before the herd. That would be one theory. Or would it be a Katrina effect?

Is the industrial and the Asian demand for gold/silver so recent? I don't think so... Industry + India + China should have been bringing the gold/silver prices up since 2000 or so, even earlier. Why 2006?

This subject is very important. If we recognize good fundamental reasons for this long-term uptrend, all that "bubble" talk may be ruled out easily.

Nevertheless, it is important to understand that lots of $$$ were removed from those crazy financial products in 2008 and reallocated to the commodities since then. The result is quite visible.

The commodities became very speculative at the moment and it's impossible to foresee for how long the "big money" will stick to them. They may wait for $1700 or $2000 in gold, but maybe not. If they flee, they may drag the entire market with them and create a huge sell-off. I'm just saying that in order to warn some people. Gold won't move up eternally, even if it is reasonable to do so. No forecast is possible. Don't trust any prophet. Not even me .

Some days ago, someone in CNBC was telling that some hedge funds were planning to increase leverage. That means: they will take huge, cheap loans and play in the market. What do you expect to happen in the equity and commodity markets? And what do you expect when they have to pay back the loan?

Some reading material, Lilpip will like this.

http://www.gata.org/files/ThunderRoa...02-24-2011.pdf

wolfwave worked well...

The chart shows that the gold's ascent started in 2001, at least that period seems to be the starting point of the climb (+-), i don't know if that has to do anything with the events that happened in 11.09.2001 and the beginning of the "War on Terror" campaign, but i really do not believe in coincidences, so yes, i'm pretty damn sure that started the depreciation of the USD + other factors (unemployment, inflation, natural disasters, the general fear and the lack of trust in USD combined with the ideea of "safe haven" that gold is providing etc)untill this day and posibly it will lose more. I would appreciate if someone could post a chart or some numbers with the unemployment from 2001-2010 so we can correlate it with the golds price actions.


P.S. When US troops will retreat from Afganistan/Irak i will close all my positions and wait. But i really don't think it'll happen before gold reaches 1800-2000 (1-3 years)

mike - there are other nations' troops there too

it's not always just about the usa......

Missed this when first posted but that is selective math.

If someone bought gold at 200 then that wasn't in 2006 which is the year you are using for house purchase.

Apples to apples.

And btw cost of bread you are using is $2.00 right and not $200.00?

Are you being Ironic, man?

Silver is no way going down. It will keep going up and up during all this year. Of course with some bounces, but no way to 21, but small bounces due of take profit sells and such.

Be cautelous, you don't want to lose your money like that. Specially in one of the best known investments right now, along with Gold.

I know...i was kind of jokin'

Actually I didn't open the chart as full-screen before... looking at your chart, it looks more clear that 2000-2001 was a turning point.

In 2000 there was the Internet bubble burst, 2001 we know already... well, it makes more sense. As I said before, bubble bursts always force the rats to leave their holes and hide somewhere else. So in 2000 the Internet cash went to gold, the 2001 attack triggered another movement to gold. In the meanwhile the investment banks were still speculating on papers (stocks, real estate, MBS and other weapon of mass of destruction). The bigger bubble burst in 2007-2008 made gold go parabolic.

Still, I see a major change since Dec 2005. The candles look bigger than before, more volatility. Bush's second mandate? Fear of longer war?

What a wonderful day! Sun and volatile market

thought so mike

Hi all hope you all had a good weekend.

Still people trying to pick the top in gold and silver. this is like trying to keep the tide out with a brush.

We're making new highs, gold and silver is in a bull market, long trades are the order of the day(on any chart over 4hr atleast). when the tide changes then shorts will be the order of the day, simple.

bunch of King Canutes lol

beeb