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  • #3,161
  • Feb 27, 2011 5:22am Feb 27, 2011 5:22am
Quoting beeb
highlander - for a scotsman you make a lot of sense lol



beeb
hehehe
  • #3,162
  • Feb 27, 2011 6:14am Feb 27, 2011 6:14am
Anyone here know anything about CoT charts?

I have been looking at them for a few moths, but I want to see if Im reading it right.

the chart below is of gold, I interpret this as the retail guys(red line) are seriously long, the large traders(green line) are not that long at all,, and the commercials are starting to get short the market.

if this is the case then perhaps the rally is not as strong as I may have thought.

maybe Ive got this wrong?

??????????????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-02-27_1207cot.png Size: 52 KB
  • #3,163
  • Feb 27, 2011 6:29am Feb 27, 2011 6:29am
for COT commentary I recommend:


http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com

but remember that Comex is only part of the story - the spot market in London dwarfs it.....


beeb
  • #3,164
  • Feb 27, 2011 7:39am Feb 27, 2011 7:39am
Quoting beeb
for COT commentary I recommend:


http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com

but remember that Comex is only part of the story - the spot market in London dwarfs it.....


beeb

Thanks beeb. I will take a look
  • #3,165
  • Feb 27, 2011 11:21am Feb 27, 2011 11:21am
COT lags... a lot. Better don't look at it!
  • #3,166
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:36pm Feb 27, 2011 12:36pm
Worth a read:

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1298828100.php


beeb
  • #3,167
  • Feb 27, 2011 4:43pm Feb 27, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting lilpip
weekly area of interest

slvr
33.26-64
31.00
28.32
thurs.move down from weekly highs and with move back up fri., she acts like she wants to continue to climb .
bias is up from 3221.
weekly
3486
3221
2956
monday
3441
3312
3183

gold
weekly
1426
1389
1352
day
1420
1405
1390 with eye on 1396
  • #3,168
  • Feb 27, 2011 8:19pm Feb 27, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting highlander2
........... the chart below is of gold, I interpret this as the retail guys(red line) are seriously long, the large traders(green line) are not that long at all,, and the commercials are starting to get short the market.

..........
It's never good to generalize in trading but.......t generally commercials go counter to price. Shorting on upmoves and long on down moves.

For example a gold producer may sell (i.e. go short) against anticipated future supply to lock in a "fair value" price for this production. Then offset it when price declines. Large traders are the ones to watch although they have been known to overstay the move too.

Commercials do the inverse of Large and Small Traders, or should I say the other way around. Everyone else does the opposite of the commercials.
  • #3,169
  • Feb 28, 2011 2:48am Feb 28, 2011 2:48am
Quoting SunTrader
It's never good to generalize in trading but.......t generally commercials go counter to price. Shorting on upmoves and long on down moves.

For example a gold producer may sell (i.e. go short) against anticipated future supply to lock in a "fair value" price for this production. Then offset it when price declines. Large traders are the ones to watch although they have been known to overstay the move too.

Commercials do the inverse of Large and Small Traders, or should I say the other way around. Everyone else does the opposite of the commercials....
Thanks for reply, and to GiorgioM. I know it lags, but its one of the few things Im willing to look at apart from price
  • #3,170
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:52am Feb 28, 2011 3:52am
Quoting highlander2
Thanks for reply, and to GiorgioM. I know it lags, but its one of the few things Im willing to look at apart from price
Yes but it lags much more then just a few days as many people believe.
If u do some backtest, i did, u'll find out that it's useless. Today's switch in position u can see in the cot report have been discounted by price 3 or 4 weeks ago.
For example i would bet in the next reports u will see commercials position going up again and the index reaching 100 and staying there for a while.
Using price action to predict the COT reports is very easy. The contrary is not true.
  • #3,171
  • Feb 28, 2011 9:22am Feb 28, 2011 9:22am
silver broke resistance....lets c for new possible highs.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #3,172
  • Feb 28, 2011 10:11am Feb 28, 2011 10:11am
Quoting PhAnTi'
silver broke resistance....lets c for new possible highs.

yep, I am long over the old high
  • #3,173
  • Feb 28, 2011 11:33am Feb 28, 2011 11:33am
Quoting GiorgioM
Yes but it lags much more then just a few days as many people believe.
If u do some backtest, i did, u'll find out that it's useless. Today's switch in position u can see in the cot report have been discounted by price 3 or 4 weeks ago.
For example i would bet in the next reports u will see commercials position going up again and the index reaching 100 and staying there for a while.
Using price action to predict the COT reports is very easy. The contrary is not true.
Ok thankyou for the help. I was just watching it rather than using it for trading.
  • #3,174
  • Feb 28, 2011 12:22pm Feb 28, 2011 12:22pm
Trading side way...1410-1415 !!
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #3,175
  • Feb 28, 2011 12:40pm Feb 28, 2011 12:40pm
4hr rsi divergence may indicate its time for a proper pullback. Ideally i'd like to see it back at 1380 so i can really load up my longs. 1415 proving a tough nut to take and hold. . See what the asian session brings, had enough for today.

Stay safe.
  • #3,176
  • Feb 28, 2011 2:03pm Feb 28, 2011 2:03pm
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com...-chart_28.html


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tod...e-people-comex
  • #3,177
  • Feb 28, 2011 2:22pm Feb 28, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting Dolph
4hr rsi divergence may indicate its time for a proper pullback. Ideally i'd like to see it back at 1380 so i can really load up my longs. 1415 proving a tough nut to take and hold. . See what the asian session brings, had enough for today.

Stay safe.
Gold certainly struggling for grip here, Im also looking at 1380 as possible support, i would go long here also with bulish PA. At the moment Im at break even (1363) and just letting the bulls and bears do their thing.
  • #3,178
  • Feb 28, 2011 2:31pm Feb 28, 2011 2:31pm
highlander - as i posted on Friday I'm looking for a close over 1420 to maintain bullish momentum - this level is rising over time.....

beeb
  • #3,179
  • Mar 1, 2011 3:30am Mar 1, 2011 3:30am
Australia sees commodities boom intact, prices to peak in two years
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #3,180
  • Mar 1, 2011 4:00am Mar 1, 2011 4:00am
I'm doing the same highlander2, just waiting for some definitive action and confirmation.

I'm just putting a link up to a vid on youtube, i'm not affiliated with the guy but he has some free videos which are quite good. I know there are some people around planning to Buy on Stop if price breaks out higher, i had though the same so did a bit more research on breakouts, which led me to this guy.

just posting the link because i think its relevant to the current price action and could help prevent some fellow newbies from getting burnt if price pulls back after a false break higher. Then again, more experienced guys may learn something too.

http://www.youtube.com/user/pnewton6.../1/4NCurszleF0
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