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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #2,901
  • Feb 16, 2011 3:24am Feb 16, 2011 3:24am
harvest3r

If you don't mind me asking, how does your "long gold" from 1372 sit with your "short silver" from 30.77 from yesterday? are you seeing a divergence or are they different timeframes or something?

thanks

beeb
  • #2,902
  • Feb 16, 2011 4:55am Feb 16, 2011 4:55am
Quoting beeb
If you don't mind me asking
not at all!

Quoting beeb
how does your "long gold" from 1372 sit with your "short silver" from 30.77 from yesterday? are you seeing a divergence or are they different timeframes or something?
It's just my strategy. I always trade against the trends. I am shorting gold too . This long is only an exception to the strategy, because I believe that the trend will hold until 1400. As I wrote in the last post, it's just technical superstition...

By the way, I decided to close that short on silver with only 1 green pip... I changed my mind and decided to wait until it gets above 31.00.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #2,903
  • Feb 16, 2011 5:41am Feb 16, 2011 5:41am
harvest3r

Thanks for that it makes sense.....I'm new to these boards and there seems to be a lot of confusion with people saying "I'm bullish" or "I'm bearish" without giving timeframes or reasons......Unsupported assertion might as well be the toss of a coin for all it's value imho.

FWIW I'm bullish gold and silver on the Dailies - particularly in the light of the COT reports as well as tech indicators. If you are trading against these trends I think you're very brave

beeb
  • #2,904
  • Feb 16, 2011 8:40am Feb 16, 2011 8:40am
Why trade counter trend trade? It is more risky and offers less profit potential.

I just dumped a long from 1310 the other day. Bought back at 1363 and 1372
once 1375 goes 1400 is next.

If the conditions are right you are right and the price will plow through it. It is largely a psych level and at this point after only retracing from the high down around 100 USD to 1300 and not breaking it, I don't even feel it a sufficient place to take profit any more.

Had we gone into the low 1200s or even 1100 (HAHAHa) maybe.

THe demand is too strong. There is a cluster of possible resistances in the areas between 1375 ending at 1390.

When looking at the chart we can clearly see how many times the price moved right thru this number.

True upcoming resistances will likely be seen once again at
1390
possibly 1410
1425/7




Quoting harvest3r
not at all!



It's just my strategy. I always trade against the trends. I am shorting gold too . This long is only an exception to the strategy, because I believe that the trend will hold until 1400. As I wrote in the last post, it's just technical superstition...

By the way, I decided to close that short on silver with only 1 green pip... I changed my mind and decided to wait until it gets above 31.00.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,905
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:05am Feb 16, 2011 9:05am
Actually - Looking at the daily.

Just for fun. If you draw a fibo from the high say 1427/30 area to the low 1308/10 we are SMACK in the middle right now at 1372.

The price is basically in a range at this point and could be vulnerable to news swaying it either direction. 1372 has become somewhat of a pivot. For now.

My bias is still up.

I believe all three of those highs will be taken out and this new formed trend is very similar looking price action wise to what we saw when the POG climbed up from 1170. slow steady and not to fast to far.

1500 will happen.

1310 was a bounce off a decent TL
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,906
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:22am Feb 16, 2011 9:22am
it's also the 50MA
  • #2,907
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:24am Feb 16, 2011 9:24am
Good observation.

I use only smas on daily charts. unless I add the 7 day and the 21 day. I'll make those EMAs
Quoting beeb
it's also the 50MA
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,908
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:39am Feb 16, 2011 9:39am
1368 was old resistance, it may act as new support. my sl is still at 49, great tendancy to move to break even here, yet so often this will mean you get taken out of a perfectly good trade.

wont move stops untill we're in to the 80's. patience is required...
  • #2,909
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:50am Feb 16, 2011 9:50am
Xtrade - I was referring to the Moving Average not the Exponential.....

beeb
  • #2,910
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:52am Feb 16, 2011 9:52am
highlander - 1368 and 1381 are the levels I'm watching today on GC - just seen a bounce from the former.....Those are off Andrew's forks...

beeb
  • #2,911
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:53am Feb 16, 2011 9:53am
You mean the simple? or the exponential ma?
no worries mate!

edit: I was just saying I use simples on higher term charts and exponentials on lower.
there's not much difference they are both in the same general location on the daily which as u stated is where we are now

BUT- sometimes for shorter term trades on higher charts I add the 7 and 21 EMAs to h4 and daily
Quoting beeb
Xtrade - I was referring to the Moving Average not the Exponential.....

beeb
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,912
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:54am Feb 16, 2011 9:54am
@beeb: you are right. There is too much bulls' and bears' supporters, like in football. I see it especially in the EURUSD thread. That's one of the reasons why I trade both ways - both pips are green, I have no prejudices

@XTrade: the profitability of counter-trades depend on the strategy (and luck). Just as an example: if I had scalped my long from 1372 since yesterday, I had made half of the profit I believe I would earn in the longer term. And that was only in 24 hours. Who knows when (and if) gold will reach 1399 (my TP). Sometimes it's the other way around, I could have lots of pips now if I had not scalped some good positions.

I was also expecting a break above 1376. What happened? We got a dip to 1368. Good, at least I could close my old shorts at BE and reopen another short higher than before. It's nice to trade both ways. But I agree with all of you, it's not that simple and it can be quite risky sometimes. No question. It's necessary to manage money and risk very carefully.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #2,913
  • Feb 16, 2011 9:59am Feb 16, 2011 9:59am
well said harvest - and you do have a reason for your trading....

many here imho seem to have no insight into what they are doing and would be better giving their money to professionals to manage for them. as i said an unsupported assertion is no better than tossing a coin in the air.

technical analysis is about narrowing down the probabilities in order to give your trade the best possibility of success...

beeb
  • #2,914
  • Feb 16, 2011 11:47am Feb 16, 2011 11:47am
bloody hell! Crazy day, hate fast moves, often they reverse.
  • #2,915
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:09pm Feb 16, 2011 12:09pm
I had a resting order to sell USD CHF and it was on the ask chart not the bid,


it didn't get lifted cause of the DAMN 2 pip difference and what would have been a gross 240 pip trade turned into a 30 pip trade.

Needless to say I am pissed.....

But what can you do.

I love these type of days. All the major moves
done within 3 hours.

Oh btw knockin on 1380's door now!!!!!!!!


Quoting highlander2
bloody hell! Crazy day, hate fast moves, often they reverse.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,916
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:12pm Feb 16, 2011 12:12pm
DONT MISS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #2,917
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:16pm Feb 16, 2011 12:16pm
The problem with Bollinger Bands is that they can quite easily do what they did in early August on your chart.......I would beware looking at them in isolation....

beeb
  • #2,918
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:44pm Feb 16, 2011 12:44pm
[quote=XTrade;4404555]I had a resting order to sell USD CHF and it was on the ask chart not the bid,


it didn't get lifted cause of the DAMN 2 pip difference and what would have been a gross 240 pip trade turned into a 30 pip trade.

Needless to say I am pissed.....

quote]

Yeah i know that kind of day, i was lucky today so far, i am long u/j and i had my stop trailed to 83.52- how i am still in after this move i have no idea? may get stopped in the end.
  • #2,919
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:49pm Feb 16, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting highlander2
bloody hell! Crazy day, hate fast moves, often they reverse.


you are right. Personally I prefer that to those 10-pip-range days.

Regarding the fast moves, someone in Bloomberg was saying that the rally was a response to some news. Iranian warships were supposed to make some a picnic trip through the Suez Canal in the next days and some Israeli said whatever. I can't really believe it, because it was not really synchronized with the rally in oil... Well, rumours
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #2,920
  • Feb 16, 2011 12:59pm Feb 16, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting XTrade
it didn't get lifted cause of the DAMN 2 pip difference and what would have been a gross 240 pip trade turned into a 30 pip trade.


It happened to me this week. I decided to open some exceptions this week and open positions based on technicals. My SL were triggered TO THE PIP on EURUSD ( EUR 20.00 loss) and then it moved back to +50 pip. That was criminal. But the worst of all was a gold long which was not triggered by 0.1 pip (YES, one tenth of a pip)...

Well, now come the FOMC minutes. Maybe we get some final fireworks for the day.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
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