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  • #161
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:14am Feb 3, 2011 11:14am
Quoting z3r0
It was the BB I posted earlier here

Personally I rarely rarely use it. But I threw it to the chart and can see gold is respecting that BB quite well.. even the upper band is quite neat. I was hoping that this would be another reversal point but chickened out before the spike cause of all the speculation that it might go down cause investors are switching to other assets... So.. I was cautious but now i feel a bit dumb.. I will try to get in at some re-test I just need...
You got a large part of it, so wouldn't regret
Must say I really didn't expect such strength, don't know about 1500 but keeping on sidelines for a while (as a bear) until picture clears....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #162
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:33am Feb 3, 2011 11:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
You got a large part of it, so wouldn't regret
Must say I really didn't expect such strength, don't know about 1500 but keeping on sidelines for a while (as a bear) until picture clears....
I think I won't be in until next week perhaps. I will be looking now for a break of 200EMA on the H4 and enter on its re-test. It has performed well with that strategy in previous times so I'll use this one for the next time.

I read your comments and I see you're a bear.. but why don't you buy too?
Have you seen Peter Schiff videos? He explains why he thinks gold will keep rising. Here's his youtube channel..
  • #163
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:13pm Feb 3, 2011 12:13pm
Short @ 1355
  • #164
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:57pm Feb 3, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting z3r0
I think I won't be in until next week perhaps. I will be looking now for a break of 200EMA on the H4 and enter on its re-test. It has performed well with that strategy in previous times so I'll use this one for the next time.

I read your comments and I see you're a bear.. but why don't you buy too?
Have you seen Peter Schiff videos? He explains why he thinks gold will keep rising. Here's his youtube channel..
I'm not able to, must fit fundamental view
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #165
  • Feb 3, 2011 4:46pm Feb 3, 2011 4:46pm
Resistance likely soon.
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  • #166
  • Edited 4:39pm Feb 4, 2011 4:10pm | Edited 4:39pm
Resistance held. S&P futures has a megaphone (broadening formation)... if the pattern follows through, it should result in a sizeable retracement - if this occurs, it will be the 3rd engulfing bear candle in the "Falling Three" sequence (see earlier post here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=124 )

Let's see what next week brings.
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  • #167
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:13pm Feb 5, 2011 6:13pm
Interesting.
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  • #168
  • Edited 3:42am Feb 6, 2011 2:58am | Edited 3:42am
Meanwhile, further examining the entrails... oil is a pretty picture for south (meaning USD strength) and gold weakness. The 61.8 fib is often a turning point for price.

btw, just keep in mind that this is a candle in progress, being the monthly chart. Oil may have another nudge over 100, if so it may be a good time to short it. Possibly when London is in session and UCHF tests.
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  • #169
  • Feb 7, 2011 3:23am Feb 7, 2011 3:23am
on a side track... GU... great example of how price often responds at the 61.8 fib on retracements, hit it to the pip.... always a good place to put stops, just above the 61.8 fib

Also a good fib to watch for potential entries.... if price does not reverse at 61.8, it will typically continue past 61.8
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  • #170
  • Feb 7, 2011 5:28pm Feb 7, 2011 5:28pm
cup n handle in progress? looks like we are going back up
  • #171
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:27pm Feb 8, 2011 3:27pm
The weekly trend line as a buy @ 1310 is now looking like the real deal for long.

Some reading and listening.. JP Morgan are now taking gold bullion as a hedge against inflation (and probably also because they can see the writing on the wall for the USD).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...6BF5L920110207

Silver contango is at zero (meaning demand is extremely high) - explanation here

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/02...-contango.html

The video below is about 20 mins but worth listening to... just have to discount the sales pitch at the end and keep in mind the fear sells thing, but nevertheless something worth listening to, particularly in relation to gold and silver.

http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pr...VD/PPSIM129/PR
  • #172
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:41am Feb 9, 2011 1:41am
Cup n handle # 2 forming.

Major resistance also coming up around 1371-2.

If it can clear that resistance, won't be any stopping it on the romp north. It has good ema support and the weekly candle so far is looking good for more north.
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  • #173
  • Feb 11, 2011 3:50am Feb 11, 2011 3:50am
Are we ready for shorting again (pivot's are weekly)?
Opinions appreciated

H4:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #174
  • Feb 11, 2011 6:19am Feb 11, 2011 6:19am
Quoting USD-Bear
Are we ready for shorting again (pivot's are weekly)?
Opinions appreciated
Certainly make or break moment here. 200 and 21 ema's supporting on the 4H. It's been experiencing some serious rejection on the 50 fib, but I'm still liking the 61.8 fib @1380.

Egypt may still be weighing, but also on balance, bullion as a hedge against coming inflation still seems valid. Also, the US will reach it's debt cap mid-week next week (unless congress has increased it already, and I just haven't heard).

http://www.kathylien.com/site/geithn...its-a-big-deal

If something isn't done about this post haste, the risk of default will rattle markets big time. Gold isn't likely to suffer if the dollar takes a dive.
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  • #175
  • Feb 11, 2011 10:42am Feb 11, 2011 10:42am
Quoting Jade Gate
Certainly make or break moment here. 200 and 21 ema's supporting on the 4H....
Thanks Jade, well Mubarak seems to be out of the way, been scalping a little, nice volatile moves last hours.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #176
  • Feb 11, 2011 3:10pm Feb 11, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks Jade, well Mubarak seems to be out of the way, been scalping a little, nice volatile moves last hours.....
There's that deeper resistance point @ 1370-72 mentioned earlier, that is still in play.

When market opens at the beginning of a new week, the US generally has control of the trading floor for the first few hours initially - the USD and gold can receive more support on market open than one might think. Asia and London on the other hand, (it seems to me) are more inclined to sell USD and gold.

Will be interesting to see what market does with it next week and whether or not we get another test of the weekly trend line @ 1310.

UCHF has run into resistance on the weekly 21 ema (note the last test of this weekly ema also held sending the dollar back down), so perhaps the dollar is going to head south to test the W bottom... question then is, what impact will that have on gold. May be some volatile trading ahead.
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  • #177
  • Feb 14, 2011 4:10am Feb 14, 2011 4:10am
Bullion banks and COMEX commercials have increased net short positions both gold and silver -

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/

The problem with all this consolidation happening on gold is the very real possibility that it will collapse south. TIC data on Tuesday, market may not be willing to let go of US Dollars until after that... gold and silver may sell off prior.
  • #178
  • Feb 14, 2011 4:48am Feb 14, 2011 4:48am
This chart highlights what the problem is - major resistance now @ 1361 and ema compression combined, potentially an explosive mix.

A domino stops tripping exercise may be on the cards, once it clips the first set of stops, the rest will also likely trigger.
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  • #179
  • Feb 14, 2011 5:23am Feb 14, 2011 5:23am
Quoting Jade Gate
Bullion banks and COMEX commercials have increased net short positions both gold and silver -

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/

The problem with all this consolidation happening on gold is the very real possibility that it will collapse south. TIC data on Tuesday, market may not be willing to let go of US Dollars until after that... gold and silver may sell off prior.

Also some stories on backwardation on silver making the rounds. Interesting, it is going to fly one way or the other pretty soon.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26239.html
  • #180
  • Feb 14, 2011 5:44am Feb 14, 2011 5:44am
Quoting Euroscum
Also some stories on backwardation on silver making the rounds. Interesting, it is going to fly one way or the other pretty soon.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26239.html

Yes, the backwardation could be one reason why they let it fall over for a bit, deal with the speculators then put it back on track.

Or not.
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