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XAU/USD Spot Gold

  • #121
  • Jan 28, 2011 11:04am Jan 28, 2011 11:04am
This move is so f**king unbelievable. 400 pips already within 3 hours and still moving up!!
  • #122
  • Jan 28, 2011 3:07pm Jan 28, 2011 3:07pm
It should re-test the trendline at some point. Possible short @ 1350-1355 (21 and 55 emas likely to put further south pressure and strong resis at that level) and watch very carefully on the next TL test.
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  • #123
  • Jan 28, 2011 4:13pm Jan 28, 2011 4:13pm
A little something to keep an eye on.... recently gold appears to have been responding more to the fate of the Euro rather than the USD on UCHF.

EU may have a strong recovery early next week (when the panic is over), while UCHF may just consolidate. Will be interesting to watch what happens with gold when EU finds another set of legs north.

Money has been pulled out of gold (as a riskier asset) and put into the stronger European currencies (Euro, GBP). At some point however, if UCHF and USDX look like threatening another large leg south, gold may respond to this.

AU has 200, 55 and 21 ema compression happening on the 4H - when these ema's compress like this, it usually results in a very strong move (either north or south). Inclined to think the Eur/Aud cross may revive after the down traffic and track north again from here. AU and gold may suffer as a result.

It was interesting today that gold hit yesterday's high to the pip (1348) and then choked.

Let's see what market gives us next week.
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  • #124
  • Jan 28, 2011 8:58pm Jan 28, 2011 8:58pm
Something else to ponder, the S&P futures chart is in the process of developing a candle pattern called "Falling Three". This is a bearish continution pattern.

In this pattern, several days of bullish activity are then engulfed by one single large bear candle. Then it repeats, small bull days, followed by another single large bear engulfing candle. So far, we have 2 of the 3 candle sequences in place.

If this pattern holds up, we should see another round of small bull days approaching a further test of 1295 followed by another engulfing bear candle.... at which point, it would be wise to be on the short boat as the good ship QE 2 heads south.

This may also be in keeping with the rounded top on gold. NFP next week.

The corollary of course is that market may head for gold as safety, instead of dumping it but a major dumping is nevertheless also very possible (depends what the USD is doing at the time) and why 1300-1310 needs to be watched next time price approaches.
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  • #125
  • Jan 29, 2011 6:47am Jan 29, 2011 6:47am
The Gold rally on Friday isn't surprising when you consider the turmoil in North Adrica. Classic safe haven play imo. Nothing to do with Euro this time methinks.

Here's a 4hr Gold chart. 1357 is the key for any serious change in direction. (0.618 fib as well as previous support).

We are also retesting the necklines from an earlier H&S which played out.

I still favour short, but not until the panic in Egypt has died down.

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  • #126
  • Jan 29, 2011 7:47am Jan 29, 2011 7:47am
Quoting ukdaytrader
The Gold rally on Friday isn't surprising when you consider the turmoil in North Adrica. Classic safe haven play imo. Nothing to do with Euro this time methinks.

Do you know what was so fascinating about the EU down traffic on Friday? It was that UCHF did not respond in kind as it should have, i.e. if market thinks the USD is a safe haven, it should have bought UCHF, but it didn't. This disparity did not seem like a good omen for the USD.

Inclined to think EU may re-test the trendline around 1.4080-100, it is presently sitting on the weekly 200 ema, with the 55 and 21 emas coming up close behind from underneath. UCHF may well test the double bottom.

If gold closes on Monday or Tuesday around 1300 we will have a "bear stick sandwich" candle pattern (one bear candle, one bull candle, one bear candle, all equivalent size)... which usually results in further bear traffic ....... although have seen bear stick sandwiches to and fro for up to 5 straight days, bear, bull, bear, bull, bear, bull, candles all equivalent size (nice scalping or otherwise vicious if on the wrong side of it) and eventually the bulls win instead of the bears - especially inclined to happen on key support/resis levels.

There's a higher resistance point around 1371, in the event 1350-57 gets eaten in the bull traffic.
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  • #127
  • Jan 29, 2011 9:12am Jan 29, 2011 9:12am
Quoting Jade Gate
It should re-test the trendline at some point. Possible short @ 1350-1355 (21 and 55 emas likely to put further south pressure and strong resis at that level) and watch very carefully on the next TL test.
hi, nice chart,
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1296248539

but I think you drew yellow line after all happens, no offense please.

Just look at your chart from other POV.

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You'll see, gold is in channel which been supported 3 times. If you see your support @ 1260 is a magnet which probably create same pin like before when PA was trying to brake up channel.



Again, 1250 is a very sweet point for speculators thought, so...
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #128
  • Edited Jan 30, 2011 12:37am Jan 29, 2011 9:25am | Edited Jan 30, 2011 12:37am
Quoting intery
hi, nice chart,


but I think you drew yellow line after all happens, no offense please.

Just look at your chart from other POV.

Again, 1250 is a very sweet point for speculators thought, so...

Hi intery, here is the chart and commentary I posted before the event, identifying the potential bounce. You only had to scroll one page back in this thread to see it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=118

An apology please.
  • #129
  • Jan 29, 2011 12:41pm Jan 29, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting Jade Gate
.....

AU has 200, 55 and 21 ema compression happening on the 4H - when these ema's compress like this, it usually results in a very strong move (either north or south).
....

Always nice to see another who applies the compression patterns.

Dr. D.
  • #130
  • Jan 29, 2011 5:40pm Jan 29, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Always nice to see another who applies the compression patterns.

Dr. D.

Wondering if AU will head-fake on the triangle, gold kiss the 38.2 fib and trendline first.

China has public holidays Tue, Wed and Thu, Chinese New Year.

btw, it's really great to see some very knowledgeable and experienced traders posting here, please keep it up. I'll do what I can to keep the trolls on the other side of the door.
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  • #131
  • Jan 31, 2011 1:47am Jan 31, 2011 1:47am
Still Bullish



















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Put your hands in the air , Give me all your money ! !
  • #132
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:10am Jan 31, 2011 5:10am
Waiting on the retrace to reach 1324.55 or so (61.8 fib of the bull candle)...presently on the 50 fib.

US session will decide it's fate.

Dead cat might bounce today. Cable isn't wasting any time, and the ema compression on AU is looking ok for more north, especially as we lead into US equities (whether AU will hold up after US open is another matter).
  • #133
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:53am Jan 31, 2011 5:53am
Entry target hit. I'm in. Long @ 1325.742 on Oanda (in between their platform crashing for the umpteenth time in the last hour), 1324.55 on MT4

Good luck to us all today.
  • #134
  • Jan 31, 2011 5:58am Jan 31, 2011 5:58am
Quoting Jade Gate
Entry target hit. I'm in. Long @ 1325.742 on Oanda (in between their platform crashing for the umpteenth time in the last hour), 1324.55 on MT4

Good luck to us all today.
131,11 better target IMO but good luck.
  • #135
  • Jan 31, 2011 6:00am Jan 31, 2011 6:00am
If it doesn't hold on this fib, it won't hold as a long at all. Tight stop.
  • #136
  • Jan 31, 2011 3:01pm Jan 31, 2011 3:01pm
Price hovering around WPP at 1332
Waiting for it to reach UTL currently at 1346.85 also triple top

H4:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #137
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:43am Feb 1, 2011 6:43am
Have we topped here? Gold chart with TL re-jigged to pick up the recent highs.

Everything is at major resistance, EU 1.3780, GU 1.6140 (hit a long term trendline), AU 1.0080 (if this one follows through, this should form a nice set of wicks on the weekly).

UCHF isn't quitting on .9400, 6 consecutive days that price has held on .9380
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  • #138
  • Feb 1, 2011 7:41am Feb 1, 2011 7:41am
Quoting Jade Gate
Have we topped here? Gold chart with TL re-jigged to pick up the recent highs.

Everything is at major resistance, EU 1.3780, GU 1.6140 (hit a long term trendline), AU 1.0080 (if this one follows through, this should form a nice set of wicks on the weekly).

UCHF isn't quitting on .9400, 6 consecutive days that price has held on .9380
Yes same question here, 1345-1346 would be a nice (resistance-wise) reachable level imo
H4:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:53am Feb 1, 2011 8:53am
This is what the problem is for any further north . ... weekly 21 ema (light pink) sitting on its head and a hammer candle last week.

Doesn't make it mission impossible but certainly impedes any further bullish activity.

And, rather think this market is looking for a serious dose of short.
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  • #140
  • Edited 11:10am Feb 1, 2011 10:51am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting Jade Gate
This is what the problem is for any further north . ... weekly 21 ema (light pink) sitting on its head and a hammer candle last week.

Doesn't make it mission impossible but certainly impedes any further bullish activity.

And, rather think this market is looking for a serious dose of short.
Yes I see, just that Middle East/Egypt thing is bordering me a bit (as a gold bear) ....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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