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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #2,001
  • Nov 12, 2010 1:14pm Nov 12, 2010 1:14pm
the problem is that the trend of EUR/USD is against the metals. for couple of days hopely euro will not decrease
  • #2,002
  • Nov 12, 2010 1:27pm Nov 12, 2010 1:27pm
I have to run out but will update the thread with some levels I am looking at for both bullish and bearish structures when I get back.

Have a great weekend all!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,003
  • Nov 12, 2010 1:29pm Nov 12, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting Eren10
the problem is that the trend of EUR/USD is against the metals. for couple of days hopely euro will not decrease
YOu cannot always base metals trades on the trend of a currency.

Gold has most certainly proven that it can move with and against the dollar and the euro.

Look at what drives GOLD. then the currency structures.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,004
  • Nov 12, 2010 1:40pm Nov 12, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting XTrade
YOu cannot always base metals trades on the trend of a currency.

Gold has most certainly proven that it can move with and against the dollar and the euro.

Look at what drives GOLD. then the currency structures.

I hope the other factor will come in action very soon , mine SL is almost reached.
  • #2,005
  • Nov 12, 2010 8:37pm Nov 12, 2010 8:37pm
A little shake out is good and healthy for the gold market and I was happy to see that
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #2,006
  • Nov 12, 2010 9:55pm Nov 12, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting lilpip
last week she came back down to the 24.15 area, as she tested for support we watched other currencies, gold, while she was in that area and they told us to add to them as they all made a move back up.
this week
27.55
25.51
23.47
The previous week had us heading north from 24.15 and bias for this week was up from 25.51 breaking weekly high of 27.55 and finish the week testing 25.51.
this week is a flip of the coin, depending on usd index as its at a pivot point.
Does the index continue a bull run or head south ?
silver weekly
29.29
26.20
23.11
  • #2,007
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:11pm Nov 12, 2010 10:11pm
I had told you before that anything around and above 1400 was not sustainable for gold without a deep correction.Nothing can make several highs (or lows) in a row without profit taking.
That seems to have started...

We could see a small bounce from the last two days big drop, but 1320 - 1330 area looks like it will be tested to form a new base before further rise.

I feel that we have seen the highs for some quite long time.

Remember that last time we had such a low gold/silver ratio on March 2008, gold was making new highs just above 1000, and it dropped to below 683 in six months.
Scary.

That would probably not be the case again, as we have several central banks and institutions buying dips for diversification, but the safe buy and sell trade on gold may be over for some time.
  • #2,008
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:47pm Nov 12, 2010 10:47pm
Dear Fammira,

You did say that you did not see any reason for going long above 1300.
Since then we have had an appx $125 USD move north. A $20 move in gold is a nice trade. 100 even nicer.

Yes, after making highs in any market there is always the possibility of a correction.

So I ask you what is a "deep correction" in your view?

I will maintain my original view and offer that even a $300 bearish corrective phase would merely bring Gold down to the 1100 area... Still maintaining a
very healthy longer term uptrend.

I warned the same around the 1264 high, what did we have? a $100 correction to 1150 next an almost $300 move north.

Any dip is likely to be bought not only by large speculators, yet, hedge funds, central banks, retail and small cap traders.

------------------------------------------------

What's going on Globally is the FACT that nations are in a "race to debase"
in other words all the large economic powers want a lower currency price for many reasons, here is one
"The primary reason a government will debase its currency is financial gain for the sovereign at the expense of citizens." -wikipedia

Lower currency helps global trade. For instance the Japanese being an export driven economy are NOT happy with such a strong Yen. Why? it hurts their exports, which in turn hurts their economy, then the GVMNT then the people,
so on and so forth.

We are N0 -where close to a multifaceted global economic recovery. Until we have this, the price of gold will continue to rise.

Supply is low and demand is astronomical. This will continue to be a major factor in the P.O.G.

--------------------------
X

Quoting fammira
I had told you before that anything around and above 1400 was not sustainable for gold without a deep correction.Nothing can make several highs (or lows) in a row without profit taking.
That seems to have started...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,009
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:53pm Nov 12, 2010 10:53pm
People including myself are posting in this thread daily. So, I'm not sure what you mean by rare.

Why don't you post your questions here and you will get some answers....
Actually there are more posters now in this thread than when I started it and I posted to myself for a few months.

Seek and you will find. BTW, if you are looking for someone to tell you where to get in and out of the market without making your own decisions, you will likely be in for trouble or loss of margin.

So, welcome, What is it you are looking for???


Quoting blueace
is there another forum that anyone recommends with more discussion on gold trading? this thread is helpful but the posts are pretty rare. any help would be appreciated.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,010
  • Edited Nov 13, 2010 12:06am Nov 12, 2010 10:55pm | Edited Nov 13, 2010 12:06am
Now for the joke! it IS hard to do,

and

what they say about "picking bottoms" is that you come up with smelly fingers!

Quoting iezzzwan
Its hard picking top or bottoms.. its goin up soon.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,011
  • Nov 13, 2010 1:01am Nov 13, 2010 1:01am
Hey there guys

On longer term: gold IS GOING UP no doubt about that and i think we all agree, in theory gold may drop 300$ and still be on the uptrend but we all know the gold won't drop that much (i repeat myself, gold droped 350$ when we had world economical crisis), a "healthy" drop for gold in my opinion is to 1240-50 (the bottom line of the uptrend channel) and that means almost 180$ drop from 1425 so in my opinion gold won;t go down lower than that.

After i closed some transactions i opened long @1371, 1384, 1385 and 1402 and still hopping for a bigger correction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,012
  • Nov 13, 2010 6:07am Nov 13, 2010 6:07am
I maked the mistake to trade without even looking to the charts, this was the 2nd time, and I will loose a lot.
It looks like big corrections can come, hopely this will not happen very soon (monday)
  • #2,013
  • Nov 13, 2010 7:20am Nov 13, 2010 7:20am
I ended up closing out my short at 1379 before it retraced up to 1395. Unfortuantely, i slept through the big decline. :-(
  • #2,014
  • Nov 13, 2010 9:49am Nov 13, 2010 9:49am
Quoting XTrade
Dear Fammira,

You did say that you did not see any reason for going long above 1300.
Since then we have had an appx $125 USD move north....
hi xtrade,

yes, I am still convinced that anything above 1300 is not a good long entry point on gold.
I know that markets can stay irrational for long, but we'll soon start talking about rate hikes in Europe and US.

Even before that, market next year will start focusing on growth again and probably USD will recover, several central banks won't need to diversify to face a weak dollar any longer, thus gold demand will decrease rapidly.

Now neither China is interested in the gold bubble, because though the country needs to diversify, it has to face inflation, and can't allow bubbles on commodities and raw material to materialize for long.

I know it's way too early to talk about a catastrophic scenario now, and that for the moment the correction is merely technical and the uptrend is still strong and intact.
Only I want to point out that history often repeats, and gold is one of those commodities that can rise slowly and steadily, but when it corrects, well it may hurt who has been caught long at high levels (where still we are, just look at a chart and read it that way...).
  • #2,015
  • Nov 13, 2010 2:08pm Nov 13, 2010 2:08pm
it depends on how you look at it.

An entry at 1300 and exit at 1400 is a great trade in my book any way you slice it. That is a $100 move.

Now if you are looking to position trade, no, 1300 is not an optimal buy in level.

Now, i will agree that we are probably due for a correction which again is all healthy and part of the game.

Uptrend still intact and firm.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,016
  • Nov 13, 2010 8:57pm Nov 13, 2010 8:57pm
Quoting XTrade
it depends on how you look at it.

An entry at 1300 and exit at 1400 is a great trade in my book any way you slice it. That is a $100 move.

Now if you are looking to position trade, no, 1300 is not an optimal buy in level.

Now, i will agree that we are probably due for a correction which again is all healthy and part of the game.

Uptrend still intact and firm.
yes again XTrade, but you know timing and management are important in the forex market.

That said, I opened a small long position during the drop on Friday, hope on a bounce around 1385 - 1389 to take profit and consider to open a sell position for further drop towards 1290 - 1315 which I believe should limit the next potential correction.

I am watching 1350 - 1360 as a pivot that must hold next week, otherwise the drop might have more room to extend.
  • #2,017
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:58pm Nov 14, 2010 8:58pm
who's trading in here tonight??
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,018
  • Nov 15, 2010 5:12am Nov 15, 2010 5:12am
as usual i am here

multiple bounces at around 1363. also thats 18dma.

entered buy here 1364
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #2,019
  • Nov 15, 2010 8:07am Nov 15, 2010 8:07am
Looks like Gold is finding some support here 1364 after bobbing up and down for a while.





Quoting jimobiwan
as usual i am here

multiple bounces at around 1363. also thats 18dma.

entered buy here 1364
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,020
  • Nov 15, 2010 8:18am Nov 15, 2010 8:18am
Yep went back above 1370... we'll see what happens from here
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
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