XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Why would we top out near 1265? No reason. Uptrend will continue and surprise many.

very good reason: 5 waves are finished. the weekly is currently setting up its first divergence, so the daily is in a wave 5 right now. the momentum of the current trend is already getting weaker and weaker. i am not saying we won't hit 1300, but i dont think there is going to be much more of that move after we topped out above 1265. however, this is just rough orientation, i just follow the fractals, if it keeps making higher highs I will stay long.
oh and nobody is surprised by a continuation of an uptrend in gold. everyone is expecting it be higher than it actually is. so that's the time to look for it to drop for a while ... maybe.

Gold stocks are doing very well too. Look at Barrick Gold (TSE:ABX). In a month the stock went from 41 to 50$, that's a pretty interesting move.
More and more people are understanding the weaknesses of the US economy. There's no recovery coming up. Government doesn't want people losing money but by doing that they are assuring that the value of the money will go down. Future inflation is the key driver of the gold price !

Set S@1255, eventually manually entered S@1253 on recovery in NZD AUD and no meaningful pullback in over a month.

Also first retest of highs normally fails. Figured i would S here and more further up. Waiting for STOs to break back below 80 for deeper correction.

Hi all,

I couldn't help noticing that gold has been overbought on the stochastics for some time. It seems is the same story on the MACD.

The bullish cycle is going on for 25 days so far, and the 5 & 8 EMA are still on pointing up.

However, it hasn't managed to stay above the $1250 yet. With the bullish move of equities yesterday, we migth have a reason to expect a (healthy) pullback of the yellow commodity (as there is a negative correlation between equities and the metal most of the time)

Unfortunately, since I'm at my office I can't make really fancy charts to make my case stronger (no MT4 allowed here ). In any case, our good russian friends at forexpf.ru provide with some live streams, which come in handy to have an idea of what the market is doing.

Have a happy trade day
$onoman

Macd and stochastics are good to use sometimes but the both lag and are not always the best medium to decypher PA for Gold.

The stoch is "embeded" this does not necesserally mean we are overbought, one reasoning, is this move up from the last dip was filled with long term investors / traders, thus there is no real selling pressure again, we have just completed another $100 dollar move in gold in the past few weeks,

I would not be surprised to see a slight dip on profit taking, yet nothing major. Next week trading will HEAT UP. and if we are sitting pretty at 1250 now. 1300 is around the corner.

JPY has zoomed back over 85. Break lows for Au are at

1231.4 while 18DMA is also about there at 1230.3.

Doubt it will be that weak today. Looking to get out of shorts a bit lower. Hoping for retest, maybe 1235. Want to be out of everything as Mon is a holiday. In fact i dun expect any more big fluctuations today.

Break low below that is 1210 which is near 45 and 100DMA cross over at 1207. Break of that dims the picture for me.

looks like curtains for today.

It would be rude not to test lower now that we have failed to scream through the top.

Could this be the R shoulder?

Will it close above 1250?

Didn't close above finally ! Is next week bullish again ?

I reckon chart damage is done.

Outside day down today, and so close to the all time high.

China, HK etc set to lead the charge on mon while USA has holiday. When things come on line in earnest on tues, should be set for run higher in equities. The doomsday sayers about double dip sidelined for now.

Lower DXY didnt support Au. JPY still very high. Gave up all of its push lower by mid session.

Have to see if 1231.4 will hold (last break low and 18DMA). If not, it will move under the 18DMA and STOs will leave its embedded status and next support will be 1207 (45 and 100DMA, close to whole number of 1200).

I dont see whats holding this thing up myself. What inflation? Just dont see it. A huge head and shoulder is what i see for now. Mind you seasonals are in support. But it doesnt have to happen every year.

I expect at least a bounce off 1230 first which is $16 away from our close, ie almost a day's range. Quite reasonable, esp since mon should be a quiet day.

So aim to take my shorts about there and reassess.

These last three days have been quite nerve wracking actually, going against the grain for hit and runs. But i find i collect more this way than my old way which was to just L when it breaks a day high and hold. I noticed that the mkt goes up slowly, but falls far and fast.

Also look at the supercycles. They dont call for a monumental high at this time.

Anyway, so far so good. I am always flexible. I could change my mind...

went short at 1249 on Friday after US data drop and recovery

main trend is clearly bullish with 1265 highs to cap

but in the last weeks we noticed the market was more willing to invest into risky assets and risk currencies again

if this will continue, we may see some profit taking and retracement in gold towards 1230 first and 1200 later, or maybe even 1165 then on

that happening, main uptrend would still be intact, especially with all the asian countries being buyers in reason of their currency reserves diversification

Nice boost upwards here today - We are approaching the record high.

Looking at the daily, it is hard to distinguish between the current price and the

high.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nygold.gif

Both silver and gold have taken out what may turn to be minor resistances, on the higher TFs - silver coming in at 19.25 (I am excited to see if we can break $20!!) and Gold now above 1250 may look to flip this level to support as we forge ahead.

Silver only having a small pullback today and gold ready to reach his all time high

I guess we'll just keep on climbing on gold. Even though it's pretty slow action imo this long should last another while .. still wave 5.

Well going up slowly but surely !

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE68A00H20100911

* CPI at 22-month high at 3.5 pct y/y; analysts not worried
* Industrial output and investment surprise on upside
* Economists say figures reveal China's underlying strength
By Zhou Xin and Simon Rabinovitch
BEIJING, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Chinese factories ramped up production in August and money growth easily topped expectations, showing that the economy remained buoyant despite government efforts to clamp down on bank lending and property speculation.
Investment was also resilient, while inflation sped to its fastest pace in 22 months, though the bulk of price rises stemmed from higher food costs, which analysts have said should be transitory after a spell of bad weather across China this summer."

Inflationary News?

XAU to rocket? Watching Mon open closely.

XAU has proven resilient. It's tested and survived th 18DMA. But STOs are breaking down. Weekly still looking good for upside.

well that was a surprise - Au still knocking around these levels.

seeing a double top, and rising wedge and losing momentum

hold on...........

Hello all! How is everyone??? I am done moving and will solid have internet access again tomorrow!

Gold has taken out the old high. Safe haven buying is helping push the price.

The CHF is demolishing the usd as well. Currently the pair is below parity.
THe franc stronger.
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nygold.gif

Still cooking!!

1275 may slow the train. we have added close to $30 to the spot price today!
1300 will come in the near future. the road is primed.

Silver is doing phenomenally
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nysilver.gif