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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #1,061
  • Jul 21, 2010 8:51am Jul 21, 2010 8:51am
good point !

Quoting six gun
Yes there is divergence on the chart but that was a little while ago.

On the daily chart we are trading inside a box between 1180 and 1210.

This is not a bad thing - price congestion will inevitably result in the strong breakout.
Gold is a complex market.
It is a commodity but it is an investment and mixed up in currencies.
Then we have central bank involvement and market manipulation by a handful of big banks (HSBC springs to mind in gold).

The stock markets are trending down. Earning will on the whole disappoint.
Unemployment is rising....
  • #1,062
  • Jul 21, 2010 1:45pm Jul 21, 2010 1:45pm
Perhaps you are interested in trading Gold?

I would not recommend any positions right now until we get a decisive break. As Six mentioned we are basically in a fairly small trading range right now 1180 to 1215 at most.

Gold is certainly a complex market. It can be very rewarding, as well as very damaging to accounts. There are many factors to considering in the Gold Market. We are usually around to exchange ideas.



Quoting geocatalinfx
i am not so interested in gold, but i see a lot of people who just think they know to trade gold .
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,063
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:07pm Jul 21, 2010 2:07pm
Going to scalp here.

Long at 1185.43 looking for another 300+ pippies
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,064
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:18pm Jul 21, 2010 2:18pm
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/latest-news.php?id=460
  • #1,065
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:38pm Jul 21, 2010 2:38pm
The indices took a tumble 17.55 GMT.
Especially nice when I'd only just put a big fat short on that happening.

Looks like uncle Ben has been talking and the markets can read his lips.
Credit and unemployment are the major economic risks.
Doesn't want to be seen to be knocking the "moderate growth" mantra.

LOL
Nothing new there. Too much funny money, too much debt. Recession part II on the way, unemployment climbing (eg 20% in Spain - 50% in the under 25's of there).

If "MC Fed" were to actually knock the "moderate growth" lie there would be a melt down.

Gold is staying in its box - good with me. Let it wind itself up into a frenzy. I'm waiting.
  • #1,066
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:39pm Jul 21, 2010 2:39pm
Whatever this is the writing is from last Friday...
Quoting hir0406
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/latest-news.php?id=460
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,067
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:42pm Jul 21, 2010 2:42pm
Agreed. That would be something if that moderate growth line was admitted to be moderate struggle or

"we would have expected further progress" !!

What happened to the old one "we are showing signs of the recession ending"
?
Quoting six gun

If "MC Fed" were to actually knock the "moderate growth" lie there would be a melt down.

Gold is staying in its box - good with me. Let it wind itself up into a frenzy. I'm waiting.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,068
  • Jul 21, 2010 3:28pm Jul 21, 2010 3:28pm
This price action is dead. May be in for a further dip...
Too late in the day to trade now, will have to come back tonight.

Took my 50 pips and ran.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,069
  • Jul 21, 2010 4:34pm Jul 21, 2010 4:34pm
been doing ok. I am learning to read my graphs (and everyone elses) more accurately and taking the emotion out). Scalped yesterday 1189.73 to 1194.72 and shorted at 1190.22 (letting this one run to 1154). Shorted oil at 7793 and that trade looking good (aiming for 7200 initially). Shorted GPB/USD at 1.53230. Hopefully I can make up for the 5 long trades on gold I took a hit on from last week.

Fundamentally, how do you guys think the bank stress tests are going to affect gold. Personally I think if the results are not good, that could be the turning point perhaps.
  • #1,070
  • Jul 21, 2010 9:58pm Jul 21, 2010 9:58pm
Wow, this session is horrible so far....

We should get a break sometime...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,071
  • Jul 22, 2010 6:11am Jul 22, 2010 6:11am
Anyone notice the big U Turn in AUD, NZD, GBP? Good news out of europe.

AUD NZD presenting an outside day up.

Attached is a weekly chart of XAU (the sticks) and AUD (the line) to show correlation. Except for the past few weeks, XAU and AUD have a +VE correlation which may resume and turn XAU back to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAU-AUD correlation - Weekly.jpg Size: 93 KB
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #1,072
  • Jul 22, 2010 9:10am Jul 22, 2010 9:10am
When I begin my trades, the XAU was going reversal against EU

And I can see now, they are doing the same trade... why that?
  • #1,073
  • Jul 22, 2010 9:34am Jul 22, 2010 9:34am
Quoting baruch
When I begin my trades, the XAU was going reversal against EU

And I can see now, they are doing the same trade... why that?
Not sure I understand your question.

but......

XAU is characteristically the Schizophrenic cousin of the FX. No rhyme or reason with lots of fakes.

To make a better assessment I find a broader view puts me above the noise to determine direction and then i zoom in to make trades.

Notice that they are playing a different game. EUR is now above the 18dma and found support with yesterday and todays low at the 45 dma.

XAU is having an outside day up, found support at the 100dma but is still below the 18dma and the 18dma is below the 45dma - the MAs are not in bullish alignment.

Thus i expect this fish to thrash around alot before it can find its legs.

This may explain why XAU sometimes follows and sometimes is -vely correlated with everything else.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #1,074
  • Jul 22, 2010 11:10am Jul 22, 2010 11:10am
Yes this is a Great day for AUD. I have been bullish on this pair since the double bottom on the daily.

Ultimately looking for a retest of 9400 or potential breach, the swap is great.
Doesn't look like the USD rates will change any time soon.

Gold is looking like it wants to take 1200 back.

THey could follow each-other again. Yet, I don't like to correlate Gold to any (for too long that is) currency, we can see that even the classic inverse relationship to the dollar is not set.


Quoting jimobiwan
Anyone notice the big U Turn in AUD, NZD, GBP? Good news out of europe.

AUD NZD presenting an outside day up.

Attached is a weekly chart of XAU (the sticks) and AUD (the line) to show correlation. Except for the past few weeks, XAU and AUD have a +VE correlation which may resume and turn XAU back to the upside.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,075
  • Jul 22, 2010 11:14am Jul 22, 2010 11:14am
You can't tie Gold to something that it may be trending similarly to and expect
it to follow the path.

Gold is a commodity and there are other factors that affect it's trade and the reasoning that currencies do not share.

Quoting baruch
When I begin my trades, the XAU was going reversal against EU

And I can see now, they are doing the same trade... why that?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,076
  • Jul 22, 2010 12:29pm Jul 22, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting XTrade
Yes this is a Great day for AUD. I have been bullish on this pair since the double bottom on the daily.

Ultimately looking for a retest of 9400 or potential breach, the swap is great.
Doesn't look like the USD rates will change any time soon.

Gold is looking like it wants to take 1200 back.

THey could follow each-other again. Yet, I don't like to correlate Gold to any (for too long that is) currency, we can see that even the classic inverse relationship to the dollar is not set.
I have noticed that AUD closely follows the indices.
Today the indices were up (closed my shorts before it snatched all my gains back)

AUD/CHF and AUD/JPY clsoely follow the Dow. AUD/USD has a very similar course as well.
The reason for this is that AUD is a commodity currency.
If the indices are going up, so it is thought is the activity of companies and so it follows they will require more commodities.
  • #1,077
  • Jul 22, 2010 6:39pm Jul 22, 2010 6:39pm
a flag seen on 1H. Outside day up yesterday so yesterday's H i view as a higher low (1180.55). Stayed above 100dma for last four days. Looking to go long. Set at 1185.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #1,078
  • Edited 9:33pm Jul 22, 2010 9:27pm | Edited 9:33pm
AUD lately has been one of the most affected currencies by the risk sentiment/ trade.
Risk on - AUD positive, risk off AUD down.
This is not always the case, yet look at today, as you mentioned.

Dollar Dumped. European Majors Rally, equities rally, base metals and other commods rally, Oil almost back at 80, AUD unstoppable.
Copper kicked a$$ today, AUD is a major producer/exporter of CU/

How this ties into Gold is interesting, Gold higher today, yet not much of a rally,
2 factors here.

Gold can rally from "safe haven" buying, like the USD, yet the intraday trends were clear,
Gold can be considered "risk" and sometimes risk aversion.
Yet, clearly today the capital was in riskier plays.

In days of strong risk aversion both USDX and Gold can rise as we have seen recently, during the Euro tanking.

Also, to avoid inflation, yet the US is slightly more deflationary as of late, this is usually not Gold positive. Yet we are still flirting with 1200
Ultimately, Gold can be looked at as a universal currency, yet, we always need to remember the history and the fact that it is a commodity.

feel like I am missing something here.. Just a brief thought.

I too am looking for potential longs. We have not tested into the 1176 zone since first hit... However, the chart is somewhat vulnerable to further correction since we are not firmly above the psych 1200

Quoting six gun
I have noticed that AUD closely follows the indices.
Today the indices were up (closed my shorts before it snatched all my gains back)

AUD/CHF and AUD/JPY clsoely follow the Dow. AUD/USD has a very similar course as well.
The reason for this is that AUD is a commodity currency.
If the indices are going up, so it is thought is the activity of companies and so it follows they will require more commodities.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,079
  • Jul 22, 2010 9:31pm Jul 22, 2010 9:31pm
It appears to be a bullish flag on the H1.
We are also making higher highs and lower lows...

Fridays can be odd and the "stress tests" should be the main factor in markets.
Need to take a look at the news rack in addition .

Quoting jimobiwan
a flag seen on 1H. Outside day up yesterday so yesterday's H i view as a higher low (1180.55). Stayed above 100dma for last four days. Looking to go long. Set at 1185.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,080
  • Jul 22, 2010 11:42pm Jul 22, 2010 11:42pm
Well, good question.

one may think if there are some shocking surprises and/or many banks fail the test Gold would benefit.

However in the event of an about average or non-surprising result -
Gold may buoy a bit.

With Great results - Money may come out of Gold and go into the Euro / GBP
possibly unravelling some more longs.

Being that it has been a few weeks now and we have not tested close to 1150, it seems Gold is consolidating a bit in this range, clearly other longs are not ready to exit at this point.

If consolidation continues and we don't have much further correction (ie:$100) We should see 1300 before the year end.

Quoting DragonFlyFX
Fundamentally, how do you guys think the bank stress tests are going to affect gold. Personally I think if the results are not good, that could be the turning point perhaps.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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