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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #1,001
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:35am Jul 15, 2010 11:35am
Quoting six gun
Which exit will that be?

Gold?
USD?
Fiat Currencies?
T bonds?

An exit is a means of leaving one place, to enter another.

So where/what will everyone be leaving and where will they be going to?
gold

 

  1. its been knocking around here in the platform. Its been here for 10 days. These last three days we've been hitting upside resistance.
  2. There is a confluence of the 45 and 18dma.
  3. 18dma is about to cross over the 45
  4. we havent held over the 38.2% fib ret
  5. analysts tell us it will make a run to the upside

so after so many days, with JPY making a big rise back to low 87s ( to me, a sign of risk-off) it just may happen that in gold, buyers will throw in towel and rush for the exits back to cash or where ever.

just my view at this time.

I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #1,002
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:46am Jul 15, 2010 11:46am
Channels and Wedges and Fibo's and Bollinger ....
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  • #1,003
  • Jul 15, 2010 12:06pm Jul 15, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting jimobiwan
gold

 

  1. its been knocking around here in the platform. Its been here for 10 days. These last three days we've been hitting upside resistance.
  2. There is a confluence of the 45 and 18dma.
  3. 18dma is about to cross over the 45
  4. we havent held over the 38.2% fib ret
  5. analysts tell us it will make a run to the upside

so after so many days, with JPY making a big rise back to low 87s ( to me, a sign of risk-off) it just may happen that in gold, buyers will throw in towel and rush for the exits back to cash or where ever....

Well this is true - there is a level of resistance which dates back to the high around 1st December 2009.
You can see it on the daily chart.
There again there is support around 1200.0 and there appears to be a trend line forming.

So we have price congestion - the longer it goes on the harder it will break up or down. I think the operative here is "OR" - break up OR down.

Not sure how many people use 18 and 45 ma's - but I take your point.

I am short on the Dow and have registered 120 pips since 00.00 GMT. The Dow has fallen 120 points today so far.
The Dow fell on my charts yesterday and it is very likely to keep falling.

Agreed the 38% fib appears to have rejected price.

I would say there has been a couple of weeks of price congestion.
Price took a dive breaking the trend line and there is no clear direction at the moment.
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  • #1,004
  • Jul 15, 2010 12:52pm Jul 15, 2010 12:52pm
[quote=jimobiwan;3863139]day range done. this looks to be about it for today

1265H to 1186L is only $79. doesnt seem like much. Also not liking the pin action on daily for 07JUL. To me, it doesnt look like a resounding turnaround.

Looking more like establishing a range to knock around in for some time. Now looking for a temp high to set the range.

-----

Yes fully agree with you 6 gun

For me, i am sidelines. I'd rather collect pips than to be "right" or "wrong".

I also have the reasons in my earlier post (above) why this mkt may seek more buyers lower down.


Anyway, all is not lost. We have an inside day today. If we make a higher high, todays' low will form a new "higher low".

Reckon if it does go up, having stayed here so long, it may rocket up.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #1,005
  • Jul 15, 2010 1:03pm Jul 15, 2010 1:03pm
Nice to see some activity in here!
No good for me on this today, cracked a filling and off to the dentist soon.

Will shoot for some Asian

Maybe I should ask for gold, probably stronger, yet expensive!

Six Gun are you back in the saddle? or still touring the universe!?

Quoting auther
Hey Buddy,

I am currently long...

When will you be back???
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,006
  • Jul 15, 2010 1:06pm Jul 15, 2010 1:06pm
Did anyone read these? some great arguments and research in here. About Gold and Silver manipulation of COMEX

Quoting XTrade
These are comments written by well known Gold and PM analysts

The first is Ted Butler
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi...10-005c001.pdf

The second is Adrian Douglas
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi...10-005c002.pdf

To the CFTC in regards to the manipulation by JPM and HSBC in the COMEX market.

In the second comment there is a chart which i have noticed on days of massive selling....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,007
  • Edited 1:44pm Jul 15, 2010 1:33pm | Edited 1:44pm
Quoting XTrade

Six Gun are you back in the saddle? or still touring the universe!?
Nice to be back.

I started to read these. I will finish off and precise the opinion given for tomorrow.
I have had problems with the second pdf - it doesn't download properly.
I will try to find another copy if possible.

The second document is 8 pages but in XTrade's link it is 21 pages and it doesn't download properly
Here is a better copy
https://marketforceanalysis.com/inde...%20MARKETS.pdf
  • #1,008
  • Jul 16, 2010 12:14am Jul 16, 2010 12:14am
Welcome Back Bro!

Here is the original post.


Here is a post with the link to the CFTC site- It was recently updated and is much better than the old one from what I can tell

rather HERE is the link to the CFTC page where ALL the comments are.
These 2 beauties are the#1 and #2. You will find Many more from people like us. Public Knowledge.
http://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/Pu...ts/10-005.html

Quoting six gun
Nice to be back.

The second document is 8 pages but in XTrade's link it is 21 pages and it doesn't download properly
Here is a better copy
https://marketforceanalysis.com/inde...%20MARKETS.pdf
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,009
  • Jul 16, 2010 1:58am Jul 16, 2010 1:58am
I read the document by Adrian Douglas.

It explains the market is rigged for both gold and silver to promote the "strong" dollar. They looked at the price of gold, copper and oil over a 16 year period and showed that gold was heavily suppressed during the NY Comex session. Gold's price was blatantly forced down and this was obvious when comparing its movements to two other commodities. Gold is manipulated very much like Andrew Maguire described for silver

It names JPM and HSBC as the main players in the manipulation of the precious metal markets. How they have come to hold such dominant positions in the precious metal shorts they can control the price.

Large players in any market will manipulate price. The classic was Standard Oil which the US government broke up due to its massive dominance in the oil market. One of the most concerning things in this report was the obvious collusion of big banks and Government when the CFTC began hiding the names of the big players in this programme of illegal manipulation.

XTrade is it me or is it the CFTC website but the link for the Ted Butler pdf opens a pdf but it doesn't download properly "insufficient data for an image".
  • #1,010
  • Jul 16, 2010 2:20am Jul 16, 2010 2:20am
Hmm- I can view it.

try this

http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi...10-005c001.pdf

or
the actual website as I had posted last

http://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/Pu...ts/10-005.html

Yes, I have noticed the same selloff in order to manipulate markets,
looking at the kitco chart as well as paying attention to the PM fix it is easily noticed after a nice rally, or when they just want to suppress.
One day it will all unravel.

Long day today, no trades for me tonight besides on long,
at 1207 shooting for 1214 area. catch up with you guys around NY.

I am long cable and short swissy as well
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,011
  • Jul 16, 2010 3:38am Jul 16, 2010 3:38am
i think freaky Friday will send us testing the lower part of the 1200-1217 channel... the answer we'll get maybe will give us a clue for next week... I still think we should go much lower in July...
  • #1,012
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:46am Jul 16, 2010 7:46am
Hope everyone is safe.

Almost $20 walked already but we've been knocking around here for so long we may have longer walk.

Last low at 1186 = $24 day range which may mean a further drop.

Lower BB at 1173,

100dma = 1177
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #1,013
  • Jul 16, 2010 7:50am Jul 16, 2010 7:50am
Quoting jimobiwan
Hope everyone is safe.

Almost $20 walked already but we've been knocking around here for so long we may have longer walk.

Last low at 1186 = $24 day range which may mean a further drop.

Lower BB at 1173,

100dma = 1177
Looks like a potential breakout and down. It is at the bottom of the previous candles in the congestion on the daily - I can see it continuing 1185 is the lowest wick which looks quite possible today.
  • #1,014
  • Jul 16, 2010 8:48am Jul 16, 2010 8:48am
Good posts guys, Nice bearish momentum down to 1190 area.

It's about time this thing broke! I got stopped out.

Euro hits .3000 this weekly close is something to watch.

We may see 1165 in upcoming sessions if the support here goes.


Quoting six gun
Looks like a potential breakout and down. It is at the bottom of the previous candles in the congestion on the daily - I can see it continuing 1185 is the lowest wick which looks quite possible today.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #1,015
  • Jul 16, 2010 9:03am Jul 16, 2010 9:03am
im long now @ 1.189
i hope the price dont break the 1186 support
  • #1,016
  • Jul 16, 2010 9:49am Jul 16, 2010 9:49am
last DL is still unbroken.

JPY has really taken off taking NZD and AUD with it.

Au has made a lower low now, having broken the inside day low.

We havent broken the low of 07JUL yet but only cuz we've from from 1210 on this leg down and the range is done.

Therefore I am thinking thhere will be another leg down next week.

Looking to 1165.5 next, week low of 16MAY. It was from that low we lurched up to this year's H.

Fri today - nothing to do now other than to scalp.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #1,017
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:00am Jul 16, 2010 10:00am
Quoting XTrade
Good posts guys, Nice bearish momentum down to 1190 area.

It's about time this thing broke! I got stopped out.

Euro hits .3000 this weekly close is something to watch.

We may see 1165 in upcoming sessions if the support here goes.
So it made 1185.8 -
It went towards the lower end of the lower wicks of the previous days.
Price has pulled back now.
My feeling this is as low as it will go for today.
If so this could be no more than further consolidation.
The break downwards was hard but it did not breach the lower wicks - so we are still in consolidation.

The silver daily shows price was close to the 150 ema. This has acted as a mobile support since price recovered from is smashing in February 2010.
On this thread we can be confident this was market manipulation back then.

I am going to watch silver very closely - I could put a pending buy order in now at around 17.60 but I'm going to watch to see what happens on Monday.

My logic is that the 150 ema has acted as support to price for much of this year and this has been the pattern of price movements for some months.

Yes this is something of touch trading which can be risky and yes the more often price hits an moving average the more likely it will bust through it.
I think the wise move is to go down onto the shorter time frames to see what price action is like and then decide on an entry price from there.
  • #1,018
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:13am Jul 16, 2010 10:13am
but we are doing higher highs... maybe if the next high be higher, the retrace should hit 119x
well, i dont know, im new, just a suppose
  • #1,019
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:25am Jul 16, 2010 10:25am
Quoting baruch
but we are doing higher highs... maybe if the next high be higher, the retrace should hit 119x
well, i dont know, im new, just a suppose
By my count, we have lower Hs and lower Ls:

7th, L @ 1184
12th, inside day. therefore this low @1194.3 is the higher L
13th, H @ 1217.9 (higher than H of 5th)
14th higher H
15th inside day, (failed to make higher H) therefore this low @1203.5 is the higher L and this H is the lower H

16th, today, we break the last low at 1203.5 therefore, lower low

todays action also sees cross-over 18dma crosses under 45dma.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #1,020
  • Jul 16, 2010 10:35am Jul 16, 2010 10:35am
Quoting jimobiwan
By my count, we have lower Hs and lower Ls:

7th, L @ 1184
12th, inside day. therefore this low @1194.3 is the higher L
13th, H @ 1217.9 (higher than H of 5th)
14th higher H
15th inside day, (failed to make higher H) therefore this low @1203.5 is the higher L and this H is the lower H

16th, today, we break the last low at 1203.5 therefore, lower low

todays action also sees cross-over 18dma crosses under 45dma.
I reserve opinion until today's candle has closed - a lot can happen in the remainder of the trading day.
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