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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #981
  • Jul 14, 2010 7:06pm Jul 14, 2010 7:06pm
was out all day

Bullish flag didn't pan out on low volume.


had a tp for 1216 was hit.

Still holding from 1210 and now here at 1207 area. Price action is suggesting,
we are looking north.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #982
  • Jul 15, 2010 1:27am Jul 15, 2010 1:27am
Has anyone heard the story about a change in regulations by Japan on August 1 which will affect yen and by reaction, might bring a wave of unwinding of carry trades (eg AUD)

If these fall, USD wil go up and Au will go down.

I havent been able to confirm on any news pages.


I notice JPY has turned around and gaining after two failed attempts to stay above 89
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #983
  • Jul 15, 2010 3:24am Jul 15, 2010 3:24am
Asia closed

SHIA -1.87%

HSCEI -2.57%

SN1C1 -1.84


There was a bounce up when PRC issued the GDP but that lasted 30 mins and it did a U turn and broke through several days' low.

JPY has now broken through to the 87s again
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #984
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:03am Jul 15, 2010 5:03am
I read about carry trades but not this specific theory. Have a link?

Quoting jimobiwan
Has anyone heard the story about a change in regulations by Japan on August 1 which will affect yen and by reaction, might bring a wave of unwinding of carry trades (eg AUD)

If these fall, USD wil go up and Au will go down.

[font=AvantGarde][font=Trebuchet MS]I havent...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #985
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:11am Jul 15, 2010 5:11am
The Slow Days Of Summer Ground Gold Prices

just a quick read

http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysi.../10807180.html

GOLD

looks like a coil ready to explode... Yet with the Euro and GBP rallying
and many "XAU/EUR" longs already unraveled, we may buoy around for a bit.
Before any major sentiment gives us breakout or pullback.

I have my eye on popping 1218 in the immediate.

We do have a nice trendline forming on the H4 and H1 tables to trade in the channel.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #986
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:18am Jul 15, 2010 5:18am
Hey Auther,

Going to rest for a bit! (this time is usually slow ahead of NY) Quite a volatile cross session so far!

Nice! Gains on Eur and GBP and my swissy short trade is back on .0480 major support.

In any case,

perhaps later we can set up some trades if this range holds, it has been GREAT! for scalping..
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #987
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:31am Jul 15, 2010 5:31am
Quoting XTrade
Hey Auther,

Going to rest for a bit! (this time is usually slow ahead of NY) Quite a volatile cross session so far!

Nice! Gains on Eur and GBP and my swissy short trade is back on .0480 major support.

In any case,

perhaps later we can set up some trades if this range holds, it has been GREAT! for scalping..
Hey Buddy,

I am currently long...

When will you be back???
  • #988
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:52am Jul 15, 2010 7:52am
DXY just took a dive after the numbers and oil's rise should be supportive of Au.

I'm guessing no one wants to do the heavy lifting - buyers waiting to jump in if we can push this thing through,,,,,,
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #989
  • Jul 15, 2010 8:44am Jul 15, 2010 8:44am
  • #990
  • Jul 15, 2010 8:57am Jul 15, 2010 8:57am
just doing scalps.

thinking Mr MKT might not like so many longs. Its in all the news that we are unanimous Au will make another run to the upside. So Mr MKT might do a headfake then shake out the weak longs before moving. might not be today.

Wondering where this needs to fall to scare away weak longs.....mmm....
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #991
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:05am Jul 15, 2010 9:05am
Quoting XTrade
I read about carry trades but not this specific theory. Have a link?
Its not a theory. It is allegedly that will happen as a result of the Japanese authorities changing the rules. I have this exerpt. There is no link. It is from a newsletter.

"
A second potential reason for a strong yen is a change in regulations by
Japan's Financial Services Agency effective August 1. The Agency will
impose limits on leverage to 50 times while currently some brokers allow
up to 400 times leverage and this will impact approximately 1/3rd of
traders.

They will be forced to either provide increased margin or reduce
positions by buying yen and selling high interest rate currencies like the
Australian and New Zealand dollars and South African rand.

"

S: MARKET INSIGHT REPORT July 15, 2010

I have no link but I found an old newsletter of the same source. http://www.fx-concepts.com/private_c...ts/4157666.pdf

I'm guessing you have to pay to get the latest reports.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #992
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:12am Jul 15, 2010 9:12am
Shouldn't Gold be rallying now...

Given that stock markets are deep in red...
  • #993
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:28am Jul 15, 2010 9:28am
Quoting auther
Shouldn't Gold be rallying now...

Given that stock markets are deep in red...
gold has many hats.

if things tank and gold goes up - talking heads say "gold is acting as a refuge or store of value"

if things tank and gold goes down - talking heads say "gold being liquidated cuz mkt fear and need to get money to bolster account margins in other areas"

if gold tanks all by itself and on no news - talking heads say "investors taking profits"


Notice that first gold makes her move - then talking heads make up a reason.


we are better than that on this forum.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #994
  • Edited 9:47am Jul 15, 2010 9:31am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting jimobiwan
Its not a theory. It is allegedly that will happen as a result of the Japanese authorities changing the rules. I have this exerpt. There is no link. It is from a newsletter.

"
A second potential reason for a strong yen is a change in regulations by...
Correct me if I am wrong but the US is doing/has done something like this.

The UK, where almost every investment vehicle has free reign, still allows very high leverage. I don't know if there is a maximum, except that set by the broker. IG Markets allows up to 700:1 leverage which is total madness. I use 100:1 which can empty your account pretty quickly.

I don't see how a change in leverage in one country will hit the high yielding currencies specifically and hard.

Of course it is the high yielders which form one side of the carry trade, which for those who don't know is where a low yielding currency eg JPY is sold and a high yielding currency eg AUD is bought. The trader then is credited the difference in the interest rates.

Japan has had low to zero interest rate for many years there has been an active carry trade.

However the article assumes that the reduction of maximum leverage in Japan will hit high yielders specifically.

I am sure the Japanese trade other currency pairs which will also be affected.

The amount of action in the Asian session is not exactly large.

I have profited from carry trades in the Euro with AUD and could do the same with Yen pairs. The article seems to assume the Japanese only do carry trades and are the only traders doing carry trades.
  • #995
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:39am Jul 15, 2010 9:39am
This is not obvious on the daily chart but if you switch down to 8 hourly there is a new trendline forming in gold.

It runs parallel to the most recent previous one.
If you draw a trendline from early March missing out the point where price took a hit, then slide it under the last week or so it fits quite nicely.

So price took a hit - for whatever reason but within a few days resumed the same trajectory.
In fact it is in a channel with a defined top and bottom.

I am going to watch this for a short while longer as it is a little early to be sure about the line but if it is good then this will be a nice guide to trade by.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trending gold.PNG Size: 63 KB
  • #996
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:54am Jul 15, 2010 9:54am
Quoting jimobiwan
gold has many hats.

if gold tanks all by itself and on no news - talking heads say "investors taking profits"
If gold tanks all by itself and on no news - WE will say "some bastard is manipulating the market"

That's not the usual muppet comment where traders blame the market maker for their own losses - in gold it is often quite true.
  • #997
  • Jul 15, 2010 10:17am Jul 15, 2010 10:17am
I have noticed this before but if anyone hasn't noticed this -
I have a number of ema's on my charts. They are to do with a trading method I don't use but the ema's are useful.

On the chart the pink ema is the 150 day.

Notice that silver has used this as support since February 2010.

I have been fiddling around to see if there is anything that might act as the upper trend line - like Bollinger Bands.

Certainly if you had gone long when price hit the ema 150 and short it hit the top BB this would have worked out for you - even when price took a dive in February 2010.

Silver is costly to get in and out of - but if you hold a trade over several days there is good profit.

You have to watch price action closely - price makes "arches" which signal the top of run up. Also it might be necessary to change the ema to a 140 from the 150.

Comments
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver 150.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #998
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:04am Jul 15, 2010 11:04am
At some point, everyone will run for the exits at the same time...........
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #999
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:10am Jul 15, 2010 11:10am
Quoting jimobiwan
At some point, everyone will run for the exits at the same time...........
  • #1,000
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:18am Jul 15, 2010 11:18am
Quoting jimobiwan
At some point, everyone will run for the exits at the same time...........
Which exit will that be?

Gold?
USD?
Fiat Currencies?
T bonds?

An exit is a means of leaving one place, to enter another.

So where/what will everyone be leaving and where will they be going to?
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