XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

gold

LONG 1200

Auther and fellas,

There are several factors at play here on todays fall.

I will go through them in an effort to help people anticipate these types of days and maintain account balances, then profiting on the sell side.

1. This is not a Gold specific crash - When trading Gold you can't have tunnel vision, although on may not trade them it is vital to keep close watch on AG. PT PD, Copper and oil. Commodities Got hit across the board today as well as equities and other markets.

2. We created 2 new record highs and the price stayed in a range for 2 days not closing above 1245. After a record high a correction, is ALWAYS on the table. It was mentioned various times in the thread. (At times with no valid reasoning......) Simple had the news been different the reaction would have been different negating any sentiment continually repeated with no valid backing.

NO one can predict market reactions with 100 percent certainty. All traders can do is use their systems and the information available. (This takes more than talking on a forum and looking at a chart.)

3. IT is absolutely necessary to READ pay attention to and decypher news and market sentiment when trading Gold and commodities, FX equites any market that is headline, sensitive. Prior to the correction I had tried to stress the importance of fundamentals and news.

Now in terms of technicals.

4. Look at the last two or three candles on a DAILY chart after hitting a record high. The price corrected. The way Gold trades these days is NOT the same as the days of old and it is (as seen today) possible to have $20 plus days and on our last correction the price fell $80 in a few days. (1250 - to 1185. Yet before that the price rose over $90 in a week.

This is the kind of volatility and volume now present.

5. H and S - If you look closely at the H1 chart and scroll back, while anticipating another rise. (I was anticipating the cup completion - Yet after too much time had passed chart patterns negate)
We have a very ODD and Flat head and shoulders pattern. Of which from Neckline (1233) to peak (1262) with a lower minor support at 1225 we have about a $35 dollar move, Next when the neck and the support at 1225 broke
guess how far down the move was? appx 35 bucks. True to the pattern.

6. Sell stops - There were sell stops by institutions triggered below supports making the move escalate as it fell further. (hell I got an order filled while I was out!)

7. 1200 is not a valid tech level it is a psych support. Purely a rounded number above the support area which we have bottomed out on 1198/5.
And we may be oversold here.

8. When the blood is spilling jump on. Trying to go long into a MARKET WIDE selloff is like trying to catch a falling knife and 9 times out of 10 you will get cut.

9. Going to dinner. Be safe and trade smart!

Back later.

BTW : the member on vacation was given 3 WARNED chances to do something constructive and support an idea, which has been wrong many times, with valid thoughts.

D-
Yes these are correct. THere are several uptrend lines that offer the possibility of correction down to. for a bounce. I am making a simple chart.

I haven't been looking at the MACD much lately. But that looks pretty clear.

The TL that was broken today needed to be taken out at some point. It was really just an offshoot of the larger TLs, had we created another new high off this line when the price corrected it would have been worse. Too high too fast usually = bigger fall.

We are on support here and if 1197 (1200) Goes Next support is 1160 area that coincides with another longer Lower TL of uptrend. Next we have the major up trend line which allows for correction to 1050 area.

There will be lots of setups long and short coming up.

Price is paused going to take profit and watch a bit.

Entered short GBP @ 5176 and looking at EUR/USD

Gold is right at 23.6 Fibo line. Should see at least 50%

hello everyone .
can we have gold silver ratio chart in mt4

sorry X, I can't see it right now... 23% from where?

What do you mean?

How much silver it takes to buy an oz of gold ?
QUOTE=hir0406;3846179]hello everyone .
can we have gold silver ratio chart in mt4[/quote]

NP - Draw a fibo retracement from 1243xx to 1196.xx the price is hovering right at the first retracement level 23.6 If you trade tonight be careful at LDN open.

[/quote]


yaa like the ratio is now around 64-66 .so can we have an indicator tht keep showing the ratio .

Gold

Not sure on that - u can just go here though
http://www.kitco.com/market/


XAU and Gold Ratios


Jul 02, 2010 02:51 NY Time
Gold / Silver Ratio

67.38

Gold / Platinum Ratio

0.80


yaa like the ratio is now around 64-66 .so can we have an indicator tht keep showing the ratio .[/quote]

I bought back at 1207. Shooting for 1220 first.

Seems the dollar got dumped today with commodities oil and precious metals.

India silver futures may extend gains to hit a fresh record high this month on bullish trend overseas amid global economic uncertainty, coupled with reviving imports, analysts and traders said.

I got back in this morning at about 1209 with 3 positions targeting:

1220
1260
the moon

Forgot to mention S/L is at 1190

Backrgound:

Several brokers told me that you dont get volume data for the spot market because there is a limitless supply.

You only get volume data on a chart of futures contracts.

On my chart station I have two choices for Volume, Interval and Total.

On both, the screen is blank with spot items.

Question:

Is it so?

1200 seems to be holding... for now..

that was a close one.

looking precarious. we are below bollinger now but i dont think that counts for much as the BB have narrowed in so much with so many days range-bound PA.

I am looking at 1177 (18DMA on weekly) for a buy which is also near the 38.`% fib retracement of 1265H and 1043L.

And if that gives, looking to the "dark side"

Yen hasnt been able to get back above 88 although its trying hard.

"Many traders had been betting against struggling European economies by shorting the euro and buying gold. As fear abated, they were forced to adjust their trades. However, the popular gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares(GLD), shed a little more than 1 ton Thursday on gold's big selloff as the majority of investors appeared to stay committed to the precious metal for the long-term."

GBP and EUR have maintained gains so far...

If this continues the weaker dollar should give gold a boost.

Correlations between Gold and USD or EUR are not to be trusted right now.

Could it be that Eur/Usd (weekly) is making an inverted Cup Handle ??? (Possibly Gbp/Usd (weekly) and Oil (Daily) as well) - are these insignificant