XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

TNX.
There was nothing about that on FF calendar, so i was confused.

I will be adding @ 1235 (lateral support & Fibo level)

I like 1235 as well for interim support and will add there also if PA permits.

I suppose I should really be grateful towards gold. And I know where you are coming from. I guess I want to protect some of you from going overboard on it. If things get as strange as most gold bugs are fearing, the gold wouldn't end up doing a heckuva lotta good.

So now, with gold, I take junior gold companies public, and I trade the metal via the futures. And I am bearish near term. But like any trader, I can go either way without much hesitation.

And my system of trading is crude and really effective. But it is only good for hours to days. And right now, it is really bearish.

Well I can go either way on any stock, pair, currency or commodity.
I have no affinity to bull or bear.

Yesterday there was a good sized pull back after a good rise on Friday.
Was that unexpected? - No.

Gold is running up the trendline - it goes up a way, leaves the trendline and the rubber band pulls it back, but the end result is the price is a few dollars higher because the trend is up.

I have checked just and we are not quite are back on the trend line yet.
So on that basis there is a little way to go down yet - maybe down to 1230. It is something by eye but this should not be miles out.

Then it would be time to start to rise a bit again, before the rubber band pulls it back again.
Gold has got more exciting because the trendline has been getting steeper. It is getting really quite steep UP.

So whatever the system, the trend is up because on fundamentals it is up.

Where are the reasons for gold to come down?
Gold has been kept down by the central banks. But they have run out now. That is it, they have run out.
Their ability to interfere is about over and the market will decide.
The Chinese will be buying gold - they are not going to stuff their vaults with any more paper promises. The Indians are mad for gold, in my city the Indian areas have loads of shops selling gold. Any third world with the resources will buy gold. Paper can go up in smoke, but not gold.

Gold is in demand. It is solid and of timeless value. There is something deeply psychological about it. The pirate's treasure chest, the explorer searching for the city of gold, the gold medal.

Paper currencies were backed by gold. Now they are hollow IOU's.

I'm not sure people think about this too hard. There are trillions of dollars washing around. What are they worth? A note in the UK says "I promise to pay the bearer the sum of 10 pounds" or whatever the £ "value" on the note. You go to the Bank of England and they will give you another £10 note. The pound used to be backed by gold. The coins were gold and silver, but they sold most the UK gold. These governmental IOU's are backed by nothing at all. Think about it, they have nothing behind them and this has allowed the government to print more and more money - the US state, the European States, the Japanese - they are all massively in debt. So they don't have anything to back their paper promises with. This cannot last. It defies gravity, but everything comes down to earth in the end and this is going to be a horrid bump.

COULDN"T AGREE MORE ON ALL POINTS!


Always looking forward to your posts my friend.
-

Going to catch some ZZZ
X

PS - Auther Buddy, stay alive! We came above your entry earlier

In reference to Six gun's post,

the "Bubble" all currency traders should be watching to burst is that of
the Fiat paper backed by more paper, printed out of thin air.

Gold's will soar well above 1250 when certain "bubbles" collapse,

It is all in motion.

Now, Silver - has yet to have a day in the sun.

Partially due to the huge loss JPM will take on covering shorts..

Oh well..
They too will get bit in the a$$ soon.

Silver will have its day come rain or shine.

For we know every cloud has a silver lining.

Good as gold, silver lining.

These metals are in our culture and our psyche, it is only because of interference that they are as cheap as they are.
Fill your pockets with silver coins and bars - you will not be sorry.

First time when it went above - i was asleep

Second time - i was travelling

Am not sure if i'd be third time lucky

Currently @ 1233

Stock Markets in red so far... Gives me hope that Gold would rally today

Fingers Crossed

typical market making scheme to hurt the short term small traders, holding the gold above 1250 for a few days so it hurts enough to whoever had shorts going and force them to give up on their positions to release capital, then down with a blast to create panic, hunt stops and then buy gold when it's about about 30 to 40 full points less.

I fully expect a bounce back in the next few days, so if you had longs going, and you don't need the money right now, don't panic, that's what the sharks want.

Hey, I could be a paid disinformant. There are tons of those out there.

Price goes up because there is stronger buying pressure than selling.
When the selling pressure comes in, it goes down.

Price was due to go up and it did.
It then went down and my bet is it will come down to the trend line.
Then it will go up again.
This is how it has been.

This is the cycle XTrade and I have mentioned.

What I have been writing is that gold is solid, there is real value there.
There is a solid floor in price.
The trend line represents value.
Price is going up. The trend is up.
The market is appreciating gold more and more.

Price moves by degrees.
You see it going down when it is a bargain.
Stock, currencies, commodities trade like this.
They don't move in a straight line.

If you had been long when price went up you would not be saying the market makers were screwing small traders.
Then when price came down you might be saying those market makers are screwing small traders. Gold is undervalued what are they pissing around at? They must be doing it to screw the small trader.

I follow the trend and look at previous price action.
Commodities have personalities and behave slightly differently.
The major traders move the price in different ways.

Draw the support and resistance lines.
Draw the trendlines
Look at the way price has cycled up off the trendline.
This will help you see roughly when the moves will be.

I'm scalping right now and already made back about 40% of the money I lost last week when I covered my shorts in panic, but I couldn't bear the risk of an account wipe.

If I had held on to those positions, I'd have practically doubled my account.


Thank you for your insight, I'm obviously still a begginer/intermediate, so I take all the help I can get, but this is by far my most common mistake, not trusting myself enough to hold my positions which are most of the times right in a couple of days time, but I get stressed if things go against me in that day and usually dump them.

God tell me a story.
I think out of 10 trades that lose me money, 9 would have given me a profit if I have listened to my first instincts and kept the trade alive.

It is heart breaking to have lost and then come back to the chart the next day to see price where you felt is going in the first place.

I'm exactly the same at the moment, and it's pissing me off a lot.

To the point I'm thinking it would be far more profitable if I should just open a couple of positions in the morning based on previous analysis work, and go do something else the rest of the day.

What I have thought has been get in on a solid solid trend.
Get in at a low point.
Then jump on.

Wayne Jackson is a trend trader and this is the basis of this game.
Fix a trailing stop.
The market is like the tide, it ebbs and flows but the river is always ultimately flowing to the sea.

The market will come back on you and your stop will take you out.
Let it happen.
Then jump back in at the same price (spread factored in) and get picked up by the flow of the river to the sea.
This way you don't lose money and you capture the whole of the trend.
If the market makes a massive pull back the stop protects you. Let it pull back you are out. Then come back in - by the teaching at the price you were taken out at. If the pull back was big then you could come in at a lower price if you are sure the trend has re-established itself.

It is like buying the gold itself. Because gold has such a massively strong trend it is a good one to pick a low point and then jump on board with (with the trailing stop in case there is a big pull back). Expect to be taken out by the stop this is how it works or your stop is too big and you will experience huge draw downs, one of which will give you a margin call.

Yes you can make a lot by chopping and changing but if you get your timing wrong the market will take your account - and it is so easy to get it wrong.

If you trade with the trend - a strong strong trend, the trend will always come to your rescue.

Closed this deal for Zero Profit

Will look for a lower entry level to go long (1230/32 region)

Even the break even trades count as a success.

You successfully conserved your capital.

A penny saved is a penny earned

I think many traders are struggling (whether they admit it or not) with the above mentioned problem.


Here's one...

Set a long for earlier this AM for cable with a 50 pip stop and 100 pip tp/ closed it out before it hit the stop on change of initial thought. (like an a$$)

Later Today - only a few hours later. Would have taken my
100 pip profit off.

Also I am studying the timing, and period separator and I have noticed something. Will post a chart. would love to discuss.