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Gold techniques, systems, and individual trades

  • #81
  • Apr 13, 2010 7:12am Apr 13, 2010 7:12am
Below attached are the charts

 

  1. XAU/USD
  2. GOLD/INR

1st charts indicates the bandwidth of the bolingers are going to open up.... means you can expect good amount of volatility, which is easily visible in the month of Dec when XAU/USD was toppin up at 1200

and in the 2nd chart which is GOLD/INR (on MCX), that indicates that GOLD in india was at a level of around 17,000, and now again, yesturday it almost touched the same level (16970), so a definite sell signal (and a resistance too) for india GOLD trader, and i believe when you are talking about sell signal for worlds largest gold consumer, then it should and would effect XAU/USD as well

In general technical terms, for XAU (GOLD) to turn a lil bearish before letting all the bulls to open up there horses we need two negative closes (again evident in the charts .... pls it is just a signal not a confirmation). We could expect one today, and we can also expect one tomorrow (tomorrow if not negative then could be a dull day) as trading in india is only for half day ... that mean low volumes ...

Kindly revert on the quality of analysis

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #82
  • Apr 13, 2010 7:45am Apr 13, 2010 7:45am
Quoting tech niche
Below attached are the charts

 

  1. XAU/USD
  2. GOLD/INR

1st charts indicates the bandwidth of the bolingers are going to open up.... means you can expect good amount of volatility, which is easily visible in the ...

Nice charts and thanks for the good analysis. I'm a little confused though. Are you bullish or bearish in the moment? It sounds like you expect a decent pullback then a bull run...is this correct? Your previous posts about the SPDR kind-of sounded along the lines of a "gold bug" or in general terms you seemed to think i/we were wrong for shorting. Sorry if I interpreted that wrong. Being as I trade in the short term, in my opinion fundamentals are not very useful. All I need to see is what the trend is in the short term, or try to identify a failing trend(which is what i'm seeing now thus my short trades).
  • #83
  • Apr 13, 2010 7:54am Apr 13, 2010 7:54am
Got my stop...now watch it crumble from here. hehe
  • #84
  • Apr 13, 2010 7:59am Apr 13, 2010 7:59am
Quoting guitarjrb
Nice charts and thanks for the good analysis. I'm a little confused though. Are you bullish or bearish in the moment? It sounds like you expect a decent pullback then a bull run...is this correct? Your previous posts about the SPDR kind-of sounded along the lines of a "gold bug" or in general terms you seemed to think i/we were wrong for shorting. Sorry if I interpreted that wrong. Being as I trade in the short term, in my opinion fundamentals are not very useful. All I need to see is what the trend is in the short term, or try to identify a failing...
to be very simple in language ... i am expecting a bit of correction ... may be towards 1147 / 1144 / 1135 / 1127 / 1125, but i would only get a signal if i get two consecutive negative market closures. first one we had last night, but it was positive in india .. so we should get another negative mkt close in india and expect the same to happen tomoro in both XAU/USD and GOLD/INR...
I believe you have taken a good short position @1154, if not the best (1160 was best level with 70/72/75/77 as SL levels).
Try to close your position once @ 1149/47 and again enter the short position at 55 with SL @ 63.

Above all .... this is just my analysis ... and market moves on its own .... so take your decision.... i just told what i could interpret from charts and reading material
  • #85
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:00am Apr 13, 2010 8:00am
market had erased all the earlier losses
  • #86
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:41am Apr 13, 2010 8:41am
Quoting tech niche
market had erased all the earlier losses
Erased all my gains...stopped out, then price action crumbled just as I expected. lol Love the forex/commodity market!
  • #87
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:49am Apr 13, 2010 8:49am
Quoting guitarjrb
Erased all my gains...stopped out, then price action crumbled just as I expected. lol Love the forex/commodity market!
mkt again at 50
keep an eye on DOW and DXY (not to forget updates on greece)
  • #88
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:50am Apr 13, 2010 8:50am
Quoting tech niche
mkt again at 50
keep an eye on DOW and DXY (not to forget updates on greece)
I watch the DOW like a hawk(especially the futures overnight http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/) . I also keep this up http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php for obvious reasons.
  • #89
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:56am Apr 13, 2010 8:56am
Quoting guitarjrb
I watch the DOW like a hawk(especially the futures overnight http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/) . I also keep this up http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php for obvious reasons.

Also add DXY into your observation list and very soon you will find the correlation ( though XAU and DXY has been de coupled with sudden movement of last few days, but will surely fall back on track).
You might be able to see this on the attached chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #90
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:03am Apr 13, 2010 9:03am
I understand the usage of DXY, but I usually have most of the USD pairs open in my broker anyway....basically is DXY. :-) I usually have my DOW ticker, Oil Chart, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY open when trading XAU. The correlation of these to xau are very similar to DXY. Do you have a good source for a realtime DXY feed?
  • #91
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:08am Apr 13, 2010 9:08am
Quoting guitarjrb
I understand the usage of DXY, but I usually have most of the USD pairs open in my broker anyway....basically is DXY. :-) I usually have my DOW ticker, Oil Chart, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY open when trading XAU. The correlation of these to xau are very similar to DXY. Do you have a good source for a realtime DXY feed?
well i use bloomberg ... but i m pretty sure many of the brokers give its real time feed ... did u try GCI
  • #92
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:34am Apr 13, 2010 9:34am
golds has just hit 46.5... might crack further
  • #93
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:36am Apr 13, 2010 9:36am
Quoting tech niche
golds has just hit 46.5... might crack further
I just pulled up the bloomberg DXY...this chart will be more than sufficient for my needs. Thanks, i'll add it to my toolbox. Being as I stopped out earlier with my dumbly tight stop, i'll have to wait for a rally or a significant break to short again. Preferably a rally. I'm setting alerts and checking out...tired of looking at the computer!
  • #94
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:39am Apr 13, 2010 9:39am
Quoting guitarjrb
I just pulled up the bloomberg DXY...this chart will be more than sufficient for my needs. Thanks, i'll add it to my toolbox. Being as I stopped out earlier with my dumbly tight stop, i'll have to wait for a rally or a significant break to short again. Preferably a rally. I'm setting alerts and checking out...tired of looking at the computer!
stay away for some time ... dont short at this moment
  • #95
  • Apr 13, 2010 10:14am Apr 13, 2010 10:14am
Gold fell from a four-month high in New York as a rebounding dollar and a pledge to provide Greece with loans curbed demand for the precious metal.
The dollar was little changed against the euro as Greece sold 1.56 billion euros ($2.1 billion) of securities. Gold futures climbed to $1,170.70 an ounce yesterday, the highest price since Dec. 4, as the dollar weakened after Greece was offered as much as 45 billion euros to ease debt. Gold typically
moves inversely to the U.S. currency.
Gold fell to $1,149.25 in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $1,158.75 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing. Spot prices are trading 6 percent below a record $1,226.56 set on Dec. 3.
The dollar gained as much as 0.3 percent against the euro
after yesterday sliding to the lowest level since March 18.

‘Ready for a Pullback’

“Gold seems to be ready for a pullback,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “The dollar looks fairly flat for the day.”
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange- traded fund backed by the metal, were unchanged at an all-time high 1,141.04 metric tons yesterday, according to the company’s Web site.
Platinum for July delivery in New York fell 1.3 percent to $1,716.30 an ounce. Palladium for June delivery slipped 1.8 percent to $515 an ounce. Silver for May delivery declined 1.5 percent to $18.135 an ounce.
  • #96
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:11am Apr 13, 2010 11:11am
I made a poor entry at the peak of activity around 17:00 GMT+2 yesterday. This was a poor decision because the fast moving average had not flattened out and the trade itself was made in a time of high volume. Most of my trades are entered in the troughs of the 1HR volume wave pattern. Although the MACD indicated slightly bearish conditions at the time, I essentially gambled on a reversal because I didn't wait for the volume to settle down and give me a better idea of where the market was going.

Presently it appears like there is a trend reversal against the bullish trend since March 24th. I'm not afraid to say this because, to be honest, if I was not holding onto this position that is what I'd see. One of the fundamental essentials of good trading is being able to change your opinion and not nurse unanswered prayers.

I'm still holding onto my position as I may expect a small bullish bounce that could bring me back to profitable levels or a level where I can take a minimized loss.

EDIT:
I should note, however, that this trade wasn't altogether a "gamble" as it followed one of the fundamental parts of my trading strategy--trading in favor of the well-defined trend on the one and four hour charts which allows for "poor" entries to turn into profitable trades, regardless.

-----

Sorry, I don't have much time to read through what you guys have written. I will take a closer look later today.
  • #97
  • Apr 13, 2010 3:12pm Apr 13, 2010 3:12pm
Where do we go frm here buy dips sl around 1137 or short at any top sl above 1163 ..Question question ..Anyways iam frm pakistan..Iam short term trader plzzz could u senior traders provide a bit further and detailed analyst..






Quoting tech niche
to be very simple in language ... i am expecting a bit of correction ... may be towards 1147 / 1144 / 1135 / 1127 / 1125, but i would only get a signal if i get two consecutive negative market closures. first one we had last night, but it was positive in india .. so we should get another negative mkt close in india and expect the same to happen tomoro in both XAU/USD and GOLD/INR...
I believe you have taken a good short position @1154, if not the best (1160 was best level with 70/72/75/77 as SL levels).
Try to close your position once @ 1149/47...
We cannot direct the winds but we can adjust our sail.
  • #98
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:11pm Apr 13, 2010 5:11pm
uh oh somethin hit the fan... in long, and i'll raise and call your bluff.... imo.
  • #99
  • Apr 13, 2010 6:51pm Apr 13, 2010 6:51pm
hi gold traders.
ı dont know if this wolfwave play out.
any comments will be appreciated
good trades
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #100
  • Apr 14, 2010 3:23am Apr 14, 2010 3:23am
Gold @ 1156.5
reaching to yesturdays highs
near resistance 60
wait n watch for NY to open, todays closure should nt be above 54 ... els trend could be bullish once again
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