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Gold techniques, systems, and individual trades

  • #41
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:09am Mar 26, 2010 6:09am
I went ahead and pulled the trigger at 1097.53. It seems a little risky as it looks like a bullish flag on the lower timeframes, however, price action is basically at the H&S's neckline right now...so we have 100h resistance, trendline resistance and neckline resistance. Stop is over 1100, TP not determined yet.

EDIT: Quickly not looking good. lol
  • #42
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:21am Mar 26, 2010 6:21am
Yep- me too. Short from 1097.7. Stop loss at 1106, profit at 1091.
Looks like it wants to try to breakthrough 1100 at which point i will be slightly concerned as more upside is likely IMHO.
  • #43
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:33am Mar 26, 2010 6:33am
I'm holding onto a short at 1097.60. I can see that the price is moving against us right now but resistance seems strong at 1100. If I can exit this trade with some profit I will be happy. It was a poor decision because I gambled and decided to enter before the fast moving moving average actually rounded out and was heading down into the slow moving average.
  • #44
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:36am Mar 26, 2010 6:36am
Funny how we all seem to have fallen into this one, it might end up turning around because I can't see us being the only ones shorting right now. At least I'm not in this alone.
  • #45
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:42am Mar 26, 2010 6:42am
Quoting speedster239
Funny how we all seem to have fallen into this one, it might end up turning around because I can't see us being the only ones shorting right now. At least I'm not in this alone.
I think we are good as long as 1102.60 holds. I have moved my stop to 1103.75 where it will remain.

EDIT: It looks like eur/usd is finding resistance at 1.3405 which should help up out a bit.
  • #46
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:47am Mar 26, 2010 6:47am
Quoting guitarjrb
I think we are good as long as 1102.60 holds. I have moved my stop to 1103.75 where it will remain.

EDIT: It looks like eur/usd is finding resistance at 1.3405 which should help up out a bit.
My stop is at 1102 since that is equivalent to my expected move to profits. It's also at a critical resistance level in the trend.

The opening of the US markets lines up with the expected increase in volume. Prices will move, but which way is the question.
  • #47
  • Mar 26, 2010 7:35am Mar 26, 2010 7:35am
Quoting speedster239
My stop is at 1102 since that is equivalent to my expected move to profits. It's also at a critical resistance level in the trend.

The opening of the US markets lines up with the expected increase in volume. Prices will move, but which way is the question.
I think i'm going to scrap this trade at break even if given the chance. Didn't I say yesterday that I wasn't going to trade today? lol I'll hang tight for a couple of hours to see how price action is in the early part of NY I guess. One pattern I've noticed and have been taking advantage of is the 11am NY time sell-off's. You noticed this? It's not as dramatic as it has been, but it seems to be quite frequent this week.
  • #48
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:09am Mar 26, 2010 8:09am
With the volume picking up as you predicted. In the spur of the moment, I went kamikaze on the market. I'm not even going to post details as its too risky to claim. lol
  • #49
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:18am Mar 26, 2010 8:18am
Well, we got lucky and the trade turned very much in our favor. I took profit prematurely, but I feel it was the right choice in this situation because I wasn't completely confident in the trade.
  • #50
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:19am Mar 26, 2010 8:19am
Quoting guitarjrb
With the volume picking up as you predicted. In the spur of the moment, I went kamikaze on the market. I'm not even going to post details as its too risky to claim. lol
Closed my kamikaze trades, packing up and done for the day/week. Seems that we have both had a pretty good week! I basically have to thank you for those trades. Thanks for the great analysis!

Peace and good trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #51
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:30am Mar 26, 2010 8:30am
Quoting guitarjrb
Closed my kamikaze trades, packing up and done for the day/week. Seems that we have both had a pretty good week! I basically have to thank you for those trades. Thanks for the great analysis!

Peace and good trading.
Congratulations! I'm glad I could help you out some.

For myself, I'm looking to see what happens after this sell off. If there is an opportune trade I will look to enter it, otherwise I am most likely done for a very profitable week as well.
  • #52
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:32am Mar 26, 2010 8:32am
Quoting speedster239
Congratulations! I'm glad I could help you out some.

For myself, I'm looking to see what happens after this sell off. If there is an opportune trade I will look to enter it, otherwise I am most likely done for a very profitable week as well.
My thoughts on the way out. I think it will retest today's highs then sell off again. I won't be trading it though. Friday's are always weird and usually when I take hits. Peace and have a good weekend. Checking out.
  • #53
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:53am Mar 26, 2010 8:53am
Ive closed this trade at 1092 manually. I was worried the buy price might not hit my limit order to buy at 1091( it was getting too jittery). Got 45pips profit so im happy.I also wanted to close trades before the weekend..but i reckon it could go a bit lower.
Well done to everyone that went in on this slightly crazy short.
  • #54
  • Mar 26, 2010 10:22am Mar 26, 2010 10:22am
Tremendous bullish spike just occurred without any prior indication. Goes to show how unpredictable the market can be.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55
  • Mar 26, 2010 10:27am Mar 26, 2010 10:27am
Just jumped from 1102 bid to 1107 in one minute!
  • #56
  • Mar 26, 2010 10:36am Mar 26, 2010 10:36am
Quoting speedster239
Just jumped from 1102 bid to 1107 in one minute!
I glanced over at my computer and thought..."Holy crap! I'm glad I closed the 500oz short." Price slammed right into the next fibo i have on the chart. The next one in line is at or about 1120-1121 in which would be my next potential sell point. If price moved substantially above that level, i'd consider buying dips.

EDIT: The only news of significance I have seen recently is the N. Korea/S. Korea thing. S. Korean ship is sinking from an expected torpedo attack. I don't know what significance that has for gold....perhaps more significance for the USD than gold

EDIT2: The 50 day MA and fibo come in at about the same price...exactly where price action stopped. If I wasn't done for the day, I'd consider shorting the heck out of it from the top. Would be risky, but there is plenty of resistance right where the action stopped.
  • #57
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:00am Mar 28, 2010 7:00am
Quoting speedster239
Tremendous bullish spike just occurred without any prior indication. Goes to show how unpredictable the market can be.
I assume this madness was because of the Greece bailout deal? I think i'm going to watch a while to see what direction we are headed before entering anymore trades. I have attached my complete mess of a chart that makes sense to me. lol. I have added various fibo's, both short and long term, as well as a couple of trendlines. It looks like price action bounced off the 50% retrace of the recent move from 1132-1084 which is also near a short term trendline. If I keep shorting, I think i'd rather short from the next trendline around about 1113-1117. One thing to look out for is a break of the trendline that I mentioned which would almost look like a bullish(flag) continuation on the dailies. It is looking more and more like the H&S is going to be negated as price action has moved through the neckline by a decent amount.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #58
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:06am Mar 29, 2010 1:06am
I believe it's going to find resistance at the more recent trendline that you drew. On the Fibonacci retracement it seems to have found resistance at the 50. I'm going to be placing a sell based on my three main indications. The fast moving average is moving down through the slow, the volume seems like it is about to pickup (following the usual wave pattern) and the MACD indicates oversold conditions ready to fall.


There isn't a much of a clear support line to take profit at, so I've decided that I will wait until the fast moving average flattens out or indicates a turn around.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #59
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:29am Mar 29, 2010 5:29am
Back in business this morning. Its starting to look like its going to test the upper trendline on my previous chart. The shorter term one appears to have been broken, albeit not much follow through yet. I'm still going to look for better prices to sell, or would consider buying a decent dip.
  • #60
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:43am Mar 30, 2010 5:43am
Quoting luckymore
@ what price would be good to enter? 1100??? what do you think?
I don't really know...too much indecision in the market, so i'm staying out until I see a clear direction. I'd buy a test of the recent lows of 1085 or so though.
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