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Gold techniques, systems, and individual trades

  • #21
  • Mar 24, 2010 1:07pm Mar 24, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting speedster239
Yep, I saw that. I agree that long is definitely not a certainty, which is why I did not jump into the rebound right away, however I'm still not certain that the bears will win immediately coming off the head and shoulders. I feel she's going to settle down at 1080-1083 and reverse temporarily. Still, the overall trend will be down.
"not certain that the bears..."

This is a very good point and it should be noted that the neckline of H&S patters is usually always tested. At that point, I would load back on quite heavily. I think i'll look at 1098-1100 to load back on UNLESS the previously mentioned weekly TL gets broken. Then i'd consider selling the break.
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  • #22
  • Mar 24, 2010 1:13pm Mar 24, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting guitarjrb
"not certain that the bears..."

This is a very good point and it should be noted that the neckline of H&S patters is usually always tested. At that point, I would load back on quite heavily. I think i'll look at 1098-1100 to load back on UNLESS the previously mentioned weekly TL gets broken. Then i'd consider selling the break.
Great trades, congratulations. I'll post my analysis here in a minute.
  • #23
  • Edited 1:42pm Mar 24, 2010 1:27pm | Edited 1:42pm
Here's my conviction. I may have painted the rebounding line a bit too high but the idea is that there will be some form of a temporary reversal. A good entrance to the trade would be when the fast moving average (light blue) starts to move up through the slow moving average. Before that, however, it would not be a good idea to get into the trade. I'll see how everything pans out, and decide then as to whether or not I'll take the opportunity.

EDIT: Seems like there's lots of selling power here. I'm not going to enter this trade because of the fact that it's going against the overall trend, but I certainly will watch closely. Once she reaches the rounding out peak I'll setup an entry point for a sell.
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  • #24
  • Mar 24, 2010 2:31pm Mar 24, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting speedster239
Here's my conviction. I may have painted the rebounding line a bit too high but the idea is that there will be some form of a temporary reversal. A good entrance to the trade would be when the fast moving average (light blue) starts to move up through the slow moving average. Before that, however, it would not be a good idea to get into the trade. I'll see how everything pans out, and decide then as to whether or not I'll take the opportunity.

EDIT: Seems like there's lots of selling power here. I'm not going to enter this trade because of the...
You have interesting analysis...and I appreciate it. I think its a good idea to wait for a short rather than chase a bounce...good thinking there. I like how you incorporate volume in your analysis, I have never tried to do this, but looking at golds volume, the frequency and wavelength develops an interesting pattern it seems! Your forward looking analysis is inline with a test of the H&S neckline, which is what i'm hoping for. I'm going to set my alerts and get away from the platform for a while! It's about 65degrees here and I need to get out a bit. lol. Alert set for Bid>1094.50 which is the 50 fib i've been talking about in my previous posts.
  • #25
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:22am Mar 25, 2010 7:22am
Quoting guitarjrb
You have interesting analysis...and I appreciate it. I think its a good idea to wait for a short rather than chase a bounce...good thinking there. I like how you incorporate volume in your analysis, I have never tried to do this, but looking at golds volume, the frequency and wavelength develops an interesting pattern it seems! Your forward looking analysis is inline with a test of the H&S neckline, which is what i'm hoping for. I'm going to set my alerts and get away from the platform for a while! It's about 65degrees here and I need to get out...
Added a short at 1093.48 because of the bounce off the 50 and the weekly trendline. Both came in at about the same price which offers some good resistance.

EDIT: SL at 1097.50 TP not determined. Expecting(hoping for) new lows on this trade.
  • #26
  • Mar 25, 2010 9:08am Mar 25, 2010 9:08am
Closed that trade at 1089.83. Will resell at the same level as previously if given the chance. I feel like scalping a little today.
  • #27
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:08am Mar 25, 2010 10:08am
Quoting guitarjrb
Closed that trade at 1089.83. Will resell at the same level as previously if given the chance. I feel like scalping a little today.
I agree with a sale at the 50 if all of my indicators line up, but I feel it could poke its head through and turn around at 61.8 giving a little bit of a better entry.
  • #28
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:17am Mar 25, 2010 10:17am
Quoting speedster239
I agree with a sale at the 50 if all of my indicators line up, but I feel it could poke its head through and turn around at 61.8 giving a little bit of a better entry.
While I want to click sell right now...I don't want to give anything back to the market. So i'm going to stand on the sidelines with you and wait for better levels as I feel your analysis is strong. Right now i'm scalping eur/usd and usd/chf with single standards. Just looking for 10-15 pips at a time. At the moment i'm short eur/usd and long usd/chf with very tight stops. This is what I do when I get bored. lol I can't sit around long waiting for things.
  • #29
  • Edited 10:52am Mar 25, 2010 10:36am | Edited 10:52am
Well, I identified a nice pattern on the 5 minute chart indicating a sell off about to occur. Sold at what looks like the peak. I'm not ever quick to pull the trigger, this looks like a good opportunity. Fast moving average is about to move down through the slow moving average, MACD indicates overbought conditions and the volume is tapering back indicating some form of a retracement. Volume really tells a good story on the one hour charts.

Fundamental analysis:
Us jobs data was up for the fourth consecutive week. This will continue to cause Gold to lose strength, because as we know when the dollar gains strength gold tends (not always, but tends) to lose it.
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  • #30
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:49am Mar 25, 2010 10:49am
Quoting speedster239
Well, I identified a nice pattern on the 5 minute chart indicating a sell off about to occur. Sold at what looks like the peak. I'm not ever quick to pull the trigger, but this looks like a good opportunity. Fast moving average is about to move down through the slow moving average, MACD indicates overbought conditions and the volume is tapering back indicating some form of a retracement. Volume really tells a good story on the one hour charts.

Fundamental analysis:
Us jobs data was up for the fourth consecutive week. This will continue to cause...
That is exactly my thinking which is why i said " I want to click sell right now"...and is nearly identical to the trade I made earlier. I'm still going to hang out for better levels I believe. I don't really expect to get better levels, but my gut feeling is telling me to not short it right now. If I do, and it goes against me, i'll just give back the trade I made this morning. Either way, i'm confident that your short will be profitable. Still playing with eur/usd and usd/chf for now. I should add that I always have eur/usd and usd/chf open when trading xau/usd as they are helpful in determining xau's direction.
  • #31
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:56am Mar 25, 2010 10:56am
haha! There it is...beautiful trade my friend.

EDIT: I just closed my two scalps for a nice scalping profit.
  • #32
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:12am Mar 25, 2010 11:12am
Ugly movement in the market. I couldn't have closed my two scalps at a better time as the eur/usd one would have stopped out just now. I'm going to stand aside for a while to see where this thing is going. This is OT, but i'm thinking about selling some x/jpy pairs as I think the DOW will come off here at the end of the week. Specifically aud/jpy and gbp/jpy.
  • #33
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:12am Mar 25, 2010 11:12am
Quoting guitarjrb
haha! There it is...beautiful trade my friend.

EDIT: I just closed my two scalps for a nice scalping profit.
I'm still hanging on, I went back into negative right now, but as long as the .50 level is not broken the trend should continue downward. If the .50 is broken that is a signal of a reversal that goes against all of my indicators.
  • #34
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:16am Mar 25, 2010 11:16am
Quoting guitarjrb
Ugly movement in the market. I couldn't have closed my two scalps at a better time as the eur/usd one would have stopped out just now. I'm going to stand aside for a while to see where this thing is going. This is OT, but i'm thinking about selling some x/jpy pairs as I think the DOW will come off here at the end of the week. Specifically aud/jpy and gbp/jpy.
I'm glad you closed it out. Just sit tight, I'm sure it will find balance again.
  • #35
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:42pm Mar 25, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting speedster239
I'm glad you closed it out. Just sit tight, I'm sure it will find balance again.
A side note....I added 2 standards short aud/jpy at an average of 84.51. Should be an interesting trade. It's on pure speculation that the dow will come off. Also, some news coming out of EUR about the Greece package that should bring risk off a little. Thus the reasoning for my shorts and gold as well as EUR is coming off pretty hard on the news.

EDIT: I guess I could've held my usd/chf long and eur/usd shorts for more than a scalp. lol but that's the way it goes in the forex world.
  • #36
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:15pm Mar 25, 2010 2:15pm
Sold the xau bounce with 250 big ones. at an average of 1094

EDIT: That should read "150 big ones"

EDIT2: Reasoning is because of that 50fib that i've been trading on...
  • #37
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:52pm Mar 25, 2010 2:52pm
Well, I closed my sell at 1092.50 for minimal profits. My indicators still point towards a bearish trend, however the price is fluctuating far too much for me to be comfortable. I decided to exit the trade while I was still profitable. I believe the price will go down, but in the trading world you have to be certain. I was certain, and little profit is better than no profit or a loss.

Also, are you still in your position?

For now I'm going to sit, wait and analyze. I'm going to wait for a good setup so that I can enter a trade with good confidence.
  • #38
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:51pm Mar 25, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting speedster239
Well, I closed my sell at 1092.50 for minimal profits. My indicators still point towards a bearish trend, however the price is fluctuating far too much for me to be comfortable. I decided to exit the trade while I was still profitable. I believe the price will go down, but in the trading world you have to be certain. I was certain, and little profit is better than no profit or a loss.

Also, are you still in your position?

For now I'm going to sit, wait and analyze. I'm going to wait for a good setup so that I can enter a trade with good confidence....
I closed them before the close at 1093.33. Minimal profit, but still a reasonable catch with the size of the trade. The current lack of direction will leave me waiting for a reasonable (1100?) bounce to short again. I also closed the aud/jpy shorts for nice profit on the 2 standards...averaged about 30 pips or more. I think i'm done for today and will probably not be trading tomorrow unless something significant happens.
  • #39
  • Mar 26, 2010 1:36am Mar 26, 2010 1:36am
I will enter this trade when the fast moving average begins to move down into the slow moving average. Everything else is explained on the graphic .
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  • #40
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:01am Mar 26, 2010 6:01am
Looks good. Take a look at this chart. Looks like the 100 hour SMA is offering great resistance. I may take a short here soon. If I do, i'll make a post.
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