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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #741
  • May 2, 2008 3:08am May 2, 2008 3:08am
Quoting FXNorm
Warning!

This may be your last chance to buy silver at a great price

Playing the currency markets will be wild and wooly, the swings are going to be incredible. GL

This all of course, In My Humble Opinion - Norm

Silve has since then lost 80 cents, Gold lost 66$(currently 170$ off it's high from the 17th March), the DJI gained 500 points and the USDX is over 300 points above 70, around 40-50 points higher than back then.

Quote
Next player is Gbp/usd, I see it rallying over 800 pips from the 2.000 level, so climb aboard for another fun trip, play the pullbacks, and watch the fib levels. Enjoy and GL
GBPUSD stands at 1.98 currently. It pinned at 2.02 and went to test the 1.9620 area twice.

IMHO it's safer to trade charts than opinions. All of these things may or not still happen, but trading is about trading what's there with the right timing as the chart warrants it.
I feel that was JohnW's approach, too, it's a shame that there seems to be no more word here from him.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #742
  • May 2, 2008 3:40am May 2, 2008 3:40am
I have trade more than five years , test hundes of systems , indicators, privet, elite , t3 what ever.

Some fouks say jihaa this work , not for me .

Then someohow my eyes open and i did undertand how i look charts
and make "my system"

So what i try to say is that need to find or make system wich
fit in trader style.

And no one system is all time win win sitution, any method , any indicator
never tell true,
they only say this could happen.

Cut looses , let wins ride bigger.

Sometimes my trade start from looking empty charts witout any line or inidcator ,
i just look and get feeling how it will go.

Then i start to put inidcators and look how they fit in my mind.

if ewerything say yeah it might go like this , itīs time to go in.

I love to see different kind of formations and see the market breath
how itīs swing.

I donīt even know all terms, but after 5 years looking tick tick tick sharts
some say i have been stupid to loose that all time to look something
like a shart, but now i can see :

And i trade what i can see.
  • #743
  • Edited 10:16am May 2, 2008 5:54am | Edited 10:16am
Whats coming is beyond your wildest dreams...you really have no clue!

You will become "Faint out of Fear, Not knowing the way out" Time is running out.

I don't base my dire predictions on a simple video, I have a much better source for whats coming. A little Hint: You will see a domino effect happen to one of the biggest entities our world has ever known, and that entitie's total destruction will shock you beyond your wildest dreams...wake up! See the light, if you can.

http://www.youtube.com/user/visionvictory
  • #744
  • May 2, 2008 6:25am May 2, 2008 6:25am
Quoting FXNorm
See the light, if you can.

http://www.youtube.com/user/visionvictory
Living irony.

The person in the video quotes journalists as being journalists and not traders, not knowing how to time the market and never having made a successful trade.

The I see a video:

"DOLLAR COLLAPSE NOW IMMINENT
April 15, 2008, 08:18 AM
The stage is set, the dollar collapse is now imminent. The 2008 recession/depression is going to have hyper inflation and will result in an all out economic collapse."

USDX has rallied 150 points from the close of that daily bar and the 71.25 s/r zone since.
Personally I am expecting a retrace and then an eventual further pro-USD push.

I think making a lot of fuss and using big words doesn't make you more right than anyone else with an opinion.

What's right is what appears for real on the charts and price levels, not what people think.



I also think something must be terribly wrong with this guy if he's unable to buy rice in a supermarket, I have 3 here and all 3 are stocked(this is > 30 item cartons) with at least 4-8 flavors of basmati, wild, peeled, parboiled, jasmin etc rice.

Maybe he doesn't allow himself to actually SEE what's in front of him anymore due to what he thinks.

On an aside - most kind of overly bearish/bullish sentiment in press or posts usually makes a good turnaround indicator(read about 1.7 EURUSD when it's at 1.6, get 1.55 a few days later).
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #745
  • May 11, 2008 8:14pm May 11, 2008 8:14pm
recent winning entries
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-8 eurjpy entry.GIF Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-8 eurusd entry.GIF Size: 52 KB
Chance favors the prepared
  • #746
  • May 11, 2008 9:26pm May 11, 2008 9:26pm
Any recent losing entries ???
  • #747
  • May 12, 2008 1:51am May 12, 2008 1:51am
Quoting JohnW
recent winning entries


John, your buy entry on the EUR/USD..... were you using just the 2-3 touches on the 8 May.... or did you also use previous support on 5 and 7 of May ?

and thank you John for posting your last trades...... much appreciated.

Did you know you can click on a persons name, and then on the next page click on...... Put Joe-Negative on Your Ignore List ;-)

Sadly the Forex Factory is not as a hospitable place as it one was........

Dean.
perception is reality
  • #748
  • Edited 6:38pm May 14, 2008 6:13pm | Edited 6:38pm
The DOW was manipulated up over 160 points at one time today and continued manipulation over the 13,000 level will continue, and the News
will be twisted once again to accomadate the sucker move in the Dow.
Looks like a good time to play gbp/jpy to the upside, a breakout of the 205.00 level could prove profitable (with proper stops of course). Here's some more good reading material for you to digest regarding the ongoing manipulation.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/13/news...ion=2008051404

And here's a little interesting video. you might find useful.

Inserted Video
  • #749
  • May 14, 2008 11:50pm May 14, 2008 11:50pm
I'm allready in this trade from the bottom and their is some touches at the 9353 area with a nice reversal pin on the 4hour.
  • #750
  • May 19, 2008 11:27pm May 19, 2008 11:27pm
nzd/usd 7710 touches - we are about 2 pips above the close and good swing down.Will see what happens.It's allready broken a small inside bar or doji or whatever you want to call it.

Tex
  • #751
  • May 30, 2008 1:33pm May 30, 2008 1:33pm
This is Patriot News Hour, you may find it interesting and amusing.


Inserted Video
  • #752
  • May 30, 2008 3:06pm May 30, 2008 3:06pm
very good i ve read your post yes this is the holy grail
start to ask to yourself why EA doesnt work or why at the next trading system on this forum we will reach the 1000 trading system
james thread is good why because is based on Price Action
15 years ago no ones knows metatrader but traders had trade currencies and futures how ??? john has reason we jump from a trading system to another one the holy grail is the trader not the trading system 2007 Ea winner
based on neural net had works but will work ? do you want to buy an ea were at the 1st position lose 100.000 $ i think also with 1000 years of historical data this will have the same drawdown i will follow Peter trading system why because no flashing indicators in this forum you have one of the most great system to train traders trading is like sports more you practice more you learn why Ib bar why not is simple no flashing indicators no lagging tool breack out had work will work i dont know this are another trader words if someone post his statement means is selling something you learn more from your losses more than winner why because we are based on the most great neural net trading system OUR BRAIN. IS NOT THE SYSTEM WHICH MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BUT THE TRADER why experienced traders win
because they learn from their mistakes im trading only one currecie now GBP/USD why i must to start from somewere when i see other traders with all that flashing lights when a system is symple people must to complicate it
im agree with john we are losing time with books fake spam advices
but if ve invest this time in training will be better
  • #753
  • Jun 4, 2008 12:04pm Jun 4, 2008 12:04pm
I got a valuable PM today and thought it would be good to share. Even with my system, money management is super important

You got interesting aproach to breakouts.
I'm sure most of the time you get your around 10 pip breakout but what are you doing when price trigger your order and imedietly go against you.?

Greenhaze


Greenhaze -

That typically happens. Remeber I said that the most crucial traits a trader can have are courage and patience. Last night I went short the EUR/USD at 1.5425. Price immediately went up forcing me to "manage the trade". Price was in mixed bias down on the daily, price was in downward confirming bias on the 30M, and all recent US news was printing better than forecast. I chose to add another short at 1.5447. Within 60 minutes price launched up to over 1.5478. I took another short at 1.5475. Price is still in downward confirming bias on the 30M. High risk? You bet. Price was in upward confirming bias on the daily. But, and it's a big but, price did not retrace significantly from the huge drop during Tuesday New York. My average entry for all three positions was 1.5449. I placed a take profit at 1.5439 on all orders, and exited within 3 hours for an average gain of 10 pips.

This is an example of a quasi martingale money management strategy. I am surprised how often it works. My account was up sufficiently this month that I could risk 100 pips on this trade without it being a disaster. As it turns out, I have reached my profit goal for the month and I can cherry-pick trades starting next week. I will not trade tomorrow or Friday (NFP & summer trading).
Chance favors the prepared
  • #754
  • Jun 4, 2008 11:11pm Jun 4, 2008 11:11pm
About Rescues with adding to losing positions
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639
Please read this thread, it is about similar technics to rescue.
Thanks
it's o'k to win ...
  • #755
  • Jul 16, 2008 7:35am Jul 16, 2008 7:35am
Hello all, thought i'd add a little bit to e thread.

First of all, SomTam. I totally agree with your perspective. (you thai btw?)
I fully agree, there is no holy grail to trading.
Every trader I know has gone through ALOT of work to become consistent.

A few things remain consistent when it comes to markets though and these are e market axioms that have been passed done for generations.

Keep your losses small, let your profits run.
The trend is your friend.
Go with the flow.
FIND WHAT WORKS FOR YOU.

Most important is that a trader has to know himself well, stick to his own guns and trade his conviction. We all perceive the world through our own perspective and the markets are no exception. We cannot take on someone else's approach fully, unless we become them, which is impossible.

My humble experience: 2 of my best buddies are trading as well. We got in around the same time. Although we get along extremely well, our trading styles diverged severely. "A" is a hyper active trader. He traders everything from corn to fx. Small positions in everything. "B" uses a trend following system as a filter for his discretionary trades for _alot_ of currency pairs. I on e other hand, trade 4 ccy pairs, full discretion and mix in - of all things - elliott wave theory on rare occassions. They go for big moves. I scalp most of the time until I see a nice setup for a big swing. They have huge stops (100+ pips), mine are less than 40.
Different people, different risk tolerance, different timeframe.

The point is: Stop looking outside and start looking within. You might find the methodology of another person useful in SOME way.

"Take what is useful, throw out what is useless and add what is specifically your own" - Bruce Lee

There's as many ways to interpret markets as there are people! That's why for something as simple as Open High Low Close, we have... God knows how many indicators! And there will always be more and more indicators to come!
Find the stuff that works for you! That is the sole purpose of reading and listening to other people's methodologies.

Yes, courage and patience are uber important. I'd like to add honesty to the list. Personal honesty.
"I want to trade cause my friends are trading and I want to feel accepted"
"I dont want to find my own system cause it makes me feel weak when I dont make money. I'm scared to fail"
And a whole list of excuses people come up with. I read a gd quote by Jake Bernstein, he said, (ok, I paraphrase, forgot e exact words)
"Traders are amongst the most pleasurable professional group that I've talked to. They are opinionated, decisive, open minded, are always willing to take a stand and never afraid to say, 'I was wrong. My mistake. Shit.' "

It takes BALLS to say, "dammit. I suck. How do I get better? What am I not seeing that I need to see?"

BALLS and, Never Ever Ever give up! =)
One Mind, Any Market
  • #756
  • Jul 17, 2008 3:46am Jul 17, 2008 3:46am
Keep your losses small, let your profits run.
The trend is your friend.
Go with the flow.
FIND WHAT WORKS FOR YOU.
Stop looking outside and start looking within
always willing to take a stand and never afraid to say, 'I was wrong. My mistake. Shit


Cyrus i couldnt agree more.i wish everybody could understand the real meaning of all the above you mentioned...
  • #757
  • Edited 6:08am Jul 18, 2008 5:56am | Edited 6:08am
Cyrus, Panos69, and others,

As long as we think only according to the textbooks, there is no Holy Grail, and what you're saying is correct.

However, if I understand JohnW correctly, he has found an inefficiency that does not conform to "textbook norms". Over a period of six months, and more than 240 trades, it delivered a 97% win rate. It does not involve conventional TA or FA. Its key lies not with MM, nor letting profits run, nor looking within oneself. JohnW has discovered a little known quirk in price movement, one that gives him a kind of arbitrage. He explains how it operates earlier in this thread. I don't trade it myself, simply because I don't fully understand it.

JohnW is apparently not out to prove anything. He posts in this thread only rarely, because he is busy trading. He doesn't respond to those who say that a Holy Grail doesn't exist, supposedly because he's too busy banking his profits to worry about what others think.

Does a 97% win rate (with decent RR) represent the Holy Grail? Decide for yourselves.

David
  • #758
  • Aug 2, 2008 11:31pm Aug 2, 2008 11:31pm
This method was ok (simple breakout) until I found out the real reason that JW had a 97% success rate wasn't from the original 30 pip stoploss that he posted in his rules.
But from the 150 pip stoploss that he really used. Litte bit of dis-information
there after about 100 pages of testing and wondering how he did it. I was rather new to forex, so I took him at his word, I wondered why no one was really interested in this method, now I know. A lot of guys left little hints, but if John could hit a 97% success rate with only a 30 pip stoploss, I figured it was worth the hundreds of hours I put in to figure it out would be well worth it...Like they say..there's one born every minute. Now I know, you can't even come close to 87%, much less 97% with any breakout system using only 30 pips for a stop. So, the system boils down too, 20 pip
take profit and a 150 pip stoploss... He may be profitable, but not using the original information. Some holy grail huh?
  • #759
  • Aug 3, 2008 4:33pm Aug 3, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting FXNorm
This method was ok (simple breakout) until I found out the real reason that JW had a 97% success rate wasn't from the original 30 pip stoploss that he posted in his rules.
But from the 150 pip stoploss that he really used. Litte bit of dis-information
there after about 100 pages of testing and wondering how he did it. I was rather new to forex, so I took him at his word, I wondered why no one was really interested in this method, now I know. A lot of guys left little hints, but if John could hit a 97% success rate with only a 30 pip stoploss, I figured it was worth the hundreds of hours I put in to figure it out would be well worth it...Like they say..there's one born every minute. Now I know, you can't even come close to 87%, much less 97% with any breakout system using only 30 pips for a stop. So, the system boils down too, 20 pip
take profit and a 150 pip stoploss... He may be profitable, but not using the original information. Some holy grail huh?
Hi Norm,

where did you get this information about the stops that that he really used?
What kind of repeatable result were you getting with your adaptation of John's system? Even with a 20 pip profit target and 150 pip s/l, if he really really achieves 97%, on average he'd still net a bit less than 1500 pips after 100 trades...

cheers
Ohka
  • #760
  • Aug 3, 2008 5:05pm Aug 3, 2008 5:05pm
Quoting JohnW
........
On my chart I have MACD, 50EMA (close), 100EMA (close), and PSAR (default parameters on MT4). I use these indicators only as weak guides. I do not use them for entry or exit.

Daily chart

First, I determine the trend and bias on the daily chart. If you can’t see a trend on the daily chart, then pick another pair. Bias is up if the 50EMA is above the 100EMA. I like to see up bias along with an uptrend. If trend matches bias on the daily chart, go to the 30M chart. I only trade in the direction of the trend on the daily chart.


30M Chart

All trades are taken off the 30M chart. I look for S/R levels. S/R levels are determined from trend lines and swing points (stop and reverse levels). The more times an S/R level is hit and price reverses from it, the stronger it is. So, if the daily trend is up, I look for a strong resistance level with more than one hit (preferably separated by 8 hours) and reverse over the course of 2-3 days. I place a buy order above that level regardless of where the 30M EMA's or PSAR are, what the MACD says, or whether there is any divergence or not. If these other indicators confirm, then I feel a slightly more confident in the trade. If not, I don't worry. I also look for S/R from stop & reverse levels that are close to S/R from trend lines. If price breaks both in a move, I will not place a TP, but instead close the trade near the end of London. I use a 30-pip SL, and I target 20 pips for all trades except the AUD/USD and USD/CAD. For these I use 10 pips. I typically place orders after 00:00GMT (5:00PM EST) so that I can catch moves during the London session. My stop orders are spread +2 pips from the S/R level. Only enter the market using stop orders. My logic is this: if there is a resistance point in a long term uptrend, who is going to break that resistance? Stronger traders, that's who. Where do all the self-proclaimed gurus tell you to place stop loss orders? Beyond S/R levels. Think that large traders will run those stops? Yes, they will. More often than not (>90%) you will get the 20 pips.
.........
Fair enough, FXNorm, my comment is simply based upon JohnW's system description (see blue typeface in quote). From the very first post in this thread, and the exchange of PMs I had with JohnW, he seemed like a very honest guy. Somebody I could relate to, as I'd previously spent more than $15k of my own on worthless systems and trading "education".

There's a trader called Darkstar who used to post here, who attained extraordinarily high success, and (if I understand correctly) used, amongst other things, a method that targeted stoplosses. That led me to believe that certain setups with close to zero risk did exist, and were potentially identifiable if one understood enough about underlying order flow.

Anyway, if the return:risk is actually 20:150, then obviously one is going to need a very high win rate just to break even.

As to what constitues a "Holy Grail", I guess that depends upon each trader's personal expectations. IMHO, a profit factor > 1.5 (maintained over several years and several hundred trades) would be outstanding.

David
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