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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #761
  • Aug 3, 2008 8:32pm Aug 3, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting Ohka
Hi Norm,

where did you get this information about the stops that that he really used?
What kind of repeatable result were you getting with your adaptation of John's system? Even with a 20 pip profit target and 150 pip s/l, if he really really achieves 97%, on average he'd still net a bit less than 1500 pips after 100 trades...

cheers
Ohka
Read posts #592-#593-#594 The poster spotted the larger stoploss in john's P/L statement.

Its impossible to hit 200 winning trades out of 206 with a 30 pip stoploss with this breakout system.
I don't doubt he makes money with this method, just not the above win rate using only a 30 pip stop.

Don't get me wrong...you can make money with this method. I traded it by using MOMENTUM at the breakout point, and when the momentum slacked off I bailed out of the trade.
  • #762
  • Edited 9:34pm Aug 3, 2008 9:03pm | Edited 9:34pm
Here's a trade that Blueruby found while thinking about stop hunting, and its exactly what I've found to be true also. If you count 8 candles back you'll see an area of sideways congestion, now make the 8th candle #1, see how the price shot up above the congestion area, then immediately dropped back down into it, then dropped out of the bottom, then it shoots back up and off it goes.
The combined moves tell me that big money broke the price out to the upside to suck in the breakout players, once they were all in and their stops were in place, big money drove the price down thru the bottom and picked off all their stops, then took off with the price making the longs chase the price as big money dumped the newly aquired positions on the new longs as price moved higher.
This is why no one wins in forex, big money can move the price all over the place while we have to remain static, everyone is literally a sitting duck.

I'd say big money laughed all the way to the bank, but they ARE the bank lol.
My next strategy will be finding congestion area's when the crooks are going to pull off anothe raid, they do it constantly.

I also found a "dump" method that catches big moves down from a channel or pennant, where big money builds a channel to suck in the longs once again. If it works out well I'll post it here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=11
  • #763
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:18pm Aug 3, 2008 10:18pm
thanks for sharing, well post
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  • #764
  • Aug 4, 2008 9:47am Aug 4, 2008 9:47am
Quoting FXNorm
Here's a trade that Blueruby found while thinking about stop hunting, and its exactly what I've found to be true also. If you count 8 candles back you'll see an area of sideways congestion, now make the 8th candle #1, see how the price shot up above the congestion area, then immediately dropped back down into it, then dropped out of the bottom, then it shoots back up and off it goes.
The combined moves tell me that big money broke the price out to the upside to suck in the breakout players, once they were all in and their stops were in place, big money drove the price down thru the bottom and picked off all their stops, then took off with the price making the longs chase the price as big money dumped the newly aquired positions on the new longs as price moved higher.
This is why no one wins in forex, big money can move the price all over the place while we have to remain static, everyone is literally a sitting duck.

I'd say big money laughed all the way to the bank, but they ARE the bank lol.
My next strategy will be finding congestion area's when the crooks are going to pull off anothe raid, they do it constantly.

I also found a "dump" method that catches big moves down from a channel or pennant, where big money builds a channel to suck in the longs once again. If it works out well I'll post it here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=11

Hi Norm,

thanks for the feedback.

My own study into PA based trading took a somewhat different turn: through the MT4 DDE interface, I've started to work with candles that encompass a certain number of ticks.
So, my candles aren't time based anymore, each candle represents an identical number of ticks. It's the closest we can get to simulate a volume adjusted chart in FX. For EURUSD - after many tests - I've settled on 84 tick candles.

On another note: I find it rather odd that I can't let MT4 display candles that are based on a tick-aggregation, yet this information is available and exported through its DDE interface....

cheers,
Ohka
  • #765
  • Aug 4, 2008 6:09pm Aug 4, 2008 6:09pm
i want a holy grail EA after the day i had today
  • #766
  • Aug 4, 2008 8:11pm Aug 4, 2008 8:11pm
Quoting Pennypacker
i want a holy grail EA after the day i had today
If you're playin the euro, you gotta watch oil like a hawk. There's a hurricane brewin in the gulf gonna disrupt hundreds of oil platforms to some degree, ya think oil would be up? nooooooooo its down lol. The Fed is going to manipulate the markets as much as they can, they know if the Dow breaks 10,000 the party is over. So, they'll pull out every trick they can find and even create some new one's. Oil is their only weak spot, they can manipulate all the other important markets except oil. If they lose the battle with the price of oil...kiss the market and the dollar goodbye. If the Jew's bomb Iran....
  • #767
  • Edited Aug 7, 2008 4:19pm Aug 5, 2008 3:55am | Edited Aug 7, 2008 4:19pm
Quoting FXNorm
Here's a trade that Blueruby found while thinking about stop hunting, and its exactly what I've found to be true also.

This is why no one wins in forex, big money can move the price all over the place while we have to remain static, everyone is literally a sitting duck.
Eh?

Breakouts come back to retest before takeoff often, yes. This is how you make money, not lose it...I really don't see the point here or the mischief or mystery or "big boy" stuff.

Maybe the big boys are those that don't cry and know how to trade breakouts then.
I know someone who does it extremely well. Actually many people on FF know him

I think the case of "no one wins" often occurs because there is just so much wrong information being spread around. A lot of it in threads like this one ("Dow goes to zero! Oil can never fall! I know it all! Mwahahah")

Modern electronic trading has enabled us to open and close a trade within 2 seconds. We are the most mobile traders the world has EVER seen in the private, end user sector. We can actually be more nimble than the big institutions because OUR fills are so small we actually always HAVE the liquidity to get filled.
Completely the opposite of a static condition.
--
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #768
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:33pm Aug 6, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting panos69
Keep your losses small, let your profits run.
The trend is your friend.
Go with the flow.
FIND WHAT WORKS FOR YOU.
Stop looking outside and start looking within
always willing to take a stand and never afraid to say, 'I was wrong. My mistake. Shit


Cyrus i couldnt agree more.i wish everybody could understand the real meaning of all the above you mentioned...
I dont agree with these comments.
If you trade with the trend, go with the flow, you are actually too late in the markets. The trend is not my friend. lol
A loss is an very important part of our trading programm, sometimes you need to make a good loss in order to make big returns. So cuts your profit small and let your profit run, is not a right definition for a good reward/risk management.
  • #769
  • Aug 7, 2008 3:23pm Aug 7, 2008 3:23pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I know someone who does it extremely well. Actually many people on FF know him
Peter? 150 ROI?
  • #770
  • Aug 8, 2008 2:50am Aug 8, 2008 2:50am
Quoting giraia_br
Peter? 150 ROI?
If you mean PC, then no, I was hinting at someone else. But any example is fine by me. Just shows it works or rather: one can MAKE it work, if one knows how
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #771
  • Sep 16, 2008 5:56pm Sep 16, 2008 5:56pm
Quoting FXNorm
This method was ok (simple breakout) until I found out the real reason that JW had a 97% success rate wasn't from the original 30 pip stoploss that he posted in his rules.
But from the 150 pip stoploss that he really used. Litte bit of dis-information
there after about 100 pages of testing and wondering how he did it.

So, the system boils down too, 20 pip
take profit and a 150 pip stoploss... He may be profitable, but not using the original information. Some holy grail huh?
Why am I reminded of StevieT's approach

Thanks for the disclosure FXNorm, it at least makes it easier to understand what actually the core principle IS...there was so much stuff and talk surrounding all of it that it was pretty hard to figure out what was going on.
Best of my understanding, it's a simple multiple bar low/high "run", with now as you disclosed a wide enough stop.
Alrighty...not my cup of tea, but something related to other things I watch.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #772
  • Jan 3, 2009 5:24pm Jan 3, 2009 5:24pm
Quoting FXNorm
This method was ok (simple breakout) until I found out the real reason that JW had a 97% success rate wasn't from the original 30 pip stoploss that he posted in his rules.
But from the 150 pip stoploss that he really used. Litte bit of dis-information
there after about 100 pages of testing and wondering how he did it. I was rather new to forex, so I took him at his word, I wondered why no one was really interested in this method, now I know. A lot of guys left little hints, but if John could hit a 97% success rate with only a 30 pip stoploss, I...

OK folks, time to close this thread?

Anyway, my year end is done.

At the end, my win/loss is 85% winners, 15% losers. Out at B/E is a winner.
I tripled my account over the year, which is OK by me.
I have made a few minor additions to my rules which have helped a lot.

I now have my S/L @ 40 pips.
I do not put on the target until after the trade is triggered.
As soon as profit reaches +10, the S/L is moved to B/E.
If the candle that got me into the trade is >20 pips long, I do not place an exit target on the position. This means I now look for runners.
If the initiating candle is <20 pips long, I do place a 20 pip target.
I will adjust my take profit if the price along with the daily ATR indicate that it is prudent to do so. This is entirely discretionary, but as my profits have risen, I am now shooting for more than 20 pips more often.

Because I live on the West Coast, USA, I place all orders as stop entries.
I also use MT4 alarms to wake me when triggered. They are usually triggered shortly after the London open.

This startegy is a simple breakout method. I still use no indicators beyond the EMA's and ATR's. Trendlines and S/R levels are king. Always trade with the long term trend.

Peace to all the flamers.
Chance favors the prepared
  • #773
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:25am Mar 12, 2010 1:25am
Quoting JohnW
Trendlines and S/R levels are king. Always trade with the long term trend.
I read your first post, some in between and this, your latest post.
Thanks John.

Call it law of attraction, serendipity, or whatever. But I JUST (like past 2 days) came to a very similar conclusion that you have as well... my chart is almost naked... I used TLs and S/R very heavily... and it is ALL about understanding why price moves at certain points on the map.

One of my unofficial mentors told me this,

"you see the blank space in your chart? think about those areas and what would make price go there and what would prevent it. Understand how and why price moves. Indicators don't work because price is more than just squiggles on your screen and it doesn't care what you indicators are saying. Understand the nature of price and you will be ahead of the game"

Are we at least on the same page John? =)
One Mind, Any Market
  • #774
  • May 18, 2010 3:12am May 18, 2010 3:12am
hey cmon tell clearly what is all about...
if u want to share tell it from A to Z.. but not like 50/50...or discover the mystery of pyramids and other metaphysical fancy sh..
tell the rules, we test it, we thank you simple enough?
  • #775
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:34pm Oct 18, 2011 11:34pm
The Holy Grail, it is your brain and knowledge. The system, i am using THV, it is only the trigger to get in to the trade and exit. Market it is not a beast, it is a pet
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  • #776
  • Oct 19, 2011 5:00am Oct 19, 2011 5:00am
The 'Holy Grail' is consistency.

/the end
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #777
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:25am Oct 23, 2011 10:25am
this thread's degenerating into shit like the rest of em'.

thanks for the tip captain obvious.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #778
  • Oct 23, 2011 12:16pm Oct 23, 2011 12:16pm
'A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.' -- Emerson.

Consistency's easy. I regularly lose, and about the same way, too. It's just habit.
Being the one to step forward and trade as if one's everything depends on it, is (I imagine) how to win.
  • #779
  • Oct 23, 2011 3:46pm Oct 23, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting Cyrus
thanks for the tip captain obvious.
No problem, you'll get there.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #780
  • Oct 24, 2011 8:11am Oct 24, 2011 8:11am
Thanks for sharing. I have been reading the forum over the weekend and decided to post here. I think the "holy grail" in his pure form does not exists, but the closest thing to it is to master the price action... nothing's better than the pure price action trading...(from my opinion of course)
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