EURUSD & GOLD

Hey guys ,

I think we have similar processes, so I'd like to join in by posting my trades, if you don't mind.

After a long break I've started trading EURUSD and XAUUSD again as my secondary method.

EURUSD
12 pips stop-loss
1:2 RRR

Technical analysis without fundamental analysis is very risky, meaning it goes in the opposite direction in many cases. The basic idea of this thread is to combine the two analyses. Interpreting news from the daily economic calendar or geopolitical news shows us the correct direction of the transaction.

Perhaps the most important qualities of the method: 1. it is unique on this website;
2. it often manages to avoid trading algorithms.

A large part of the market volume is already dominated by algorithms, which we can easily see from the shape of the candles.

This week I traded gold entirely based on gulf news, what Iran and Trump are doing what UAE did

All of this was priced into oil prices



When USD rises what happens



Why is it so difficult to follow fundamentals ?

Now this will impact gold big time

As of 30 April 2026, the primary steps being taken to lower crude oil prices focus on restoring shipping flows and releasing strategic reserves, while recent Federal Reserve signals have escalated market pressure by shifting expectations toward higher interest rates. [1]
Steps Taken to Lower Prices
Governments and international bodies are employing several emergency levers to mitigate the supply shock caused by the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption:

1. Strategic Reserve Releases: President Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in March, a rollout that continues over 120 days to provide a physical supply cushion.
2. Diplomatic De-escalation: A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was reached in early April, briefly allowing some tanker traffic to resume and prompting Goldman Sachs to trim its Q2 price forecasts.
3. Sanction Waivers: The U.S. Treasury issued temporary 30-day waivers (General Licenses 134A and U) to allow the off-loading and sale of stranded Russian and Iranian crude already at sea, aimed at preventing a total market freeze.
4. OPEC+ Production Hikes: Despite internal friction, OPEC+ countries agreed to a symbolic production increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May to signal stability, though physical delivery remains hampered by the Hormuz blockade.
5. Consumer Relief Measures: Countries like India and South Africa have implemented significant excise duty and fuel levy cuts (e.g., ₹10/litre in India) to shield consumers from the full brunt of $120/bbl crude. [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]

The Fed's Role: Help or Escalation?
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released on 29 April 2026 have escalated the problem for the broader economy, even if they theoretically dampen oil demand in the long term. [9]

1. Hawkish Signal: The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% but saw the highest level of dissent since 1992, with three members pushing to remove the "easing bias". This signaled to markets that rate hikes are back on the table rather than cuts.
2. Stagflation Risk: Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that elevated oil prices "will push up overall inflation," creating a stagflationary trap. The Fed's refusal to ease rates while energy costs soar has intensified fears of a recession without the usual "safety net" of central bank support.
3. Market Reaction: The minutes led traders to price in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, causing yields to rise alongside oil—a "historically challenging combination" for both equities and global growth. [10, 11, 12, 13, 14]

button game station

forecasted 91$ usoil is nothing good at all my senior. nothing good is being reflected in the market. the whole world is collapsing

i am enjoying spoon feeding

BOJ acted.

We expected this.

testing volume logic

not that good

i know this is why i improved the code to next level

modified the logic yet again [ it is not bollinger ]

For Gold:
• Fixing 1: 10:30 London
• Fixing 2: 15:00 London

BOJ intervenes constantly.

How subtly the news avoids saying that BOJ intervened.

Gold short !

Gold first support test <4706

Resistance at 4720.

Bulls still have control of the Gold market for now