US trade deficit sinks to 22-month low as businesses try to time Trump tariffs. GDP to get boost. | Metals Mine

  • US trade deficit sinks to 22-month low as businesses try to time Trump tariffs. GDP to get boost.

    From morningstar.com

    Imports have see-sawed during U.S. trade wars The nation's trade deficit in goods sank 11% in June to a 22-month low as U.S. companies grappled with on-again, off-again Trump tariffs, a pattern that's likely to play out at least several more months. The trade gap in goods dropped to $86.0 billion in June from $96.4 billion in May, coming in well below the Wall Street's forecast. Lower deficits add to GDP, the official scorecard for the economy. GDP is forecast to show a 2.4% annual increase in the second quarter, but the estimate could be raised in light of the surprise drop in the June trade gap. Imports declined ... (full story)

Comment Options
NotAtrader
Jul 29, 2025 12:20pm
Permalink
Quoting Schultz
{quote} What do you think about the 1% fall in exports?
US export volume in 2024 was 3.19 trillion US Dollar. 1% of it is 31.9 million US Dollar. This is just like nothing.
Reply
NotAtrader
Jul 29, 2025 2:04pm
Permalink
Quoting Schultz
{quote} Exports could be increasing by 1% a month as US goods are seen as cheaper overseas. Do some monthly compounding if 1% decrease each month for say 3 years. No longer nothing.
Sorry my bad! I guess I mistyped the result. 1% is 31.9 billion. It's still not that much, but yeah I agree with your point. Such decline is not sustainable fr more than 5-6 months i guess. When I try to calculate, my calculator generates error.
Reply
Polimini
Jul 29, 2025 3:12pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#24E0
Responding to Trader #6443-->>Lower trade deficits = higher GDP.... it's early , but that's good for the US !
not sure how that logic goes, pricier cost of goods doesn't mean higher GDP at all.
Reply
Schultz
Jul 29, 2025 1:24pm
Permalink
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} US export volume in 2024 was 3.19 trillion US Dollar. 1% of it is 31.9 million US Dollar. This is just like nothing.
Exports could be increasing by 1% a month as US goods are seen as cheaper overseas.

Do some monthly compounding if 1% decrease each month for say 3 years. No longer nothing.
Reply
Schultz
Jul 29, 2025 2:45pm
Permalink
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Sorry my bad! I guess I mistyped the result. 1% is 31.9 billion. It's still not that much, but yeah I agree with your point. Such decline is not sustainable fr more than 5-6 months i guess. When I try to calculate, my calculator generates error.
Yeah, tricky, easy to do. Let's be pedantic for a moment. 3 trillion is 3 with 12 zeros (I googled). 1%, so take off two zeros.

30 with nine zeros. 30 billion. Snap. Hey, that is very roughly a month's tariff revenue.

Not huge, but not nothing. Anyway, whatever.....

My original point was that a decrease in exports decreases GDP - the sneaky headline is a bit misleading.

Just because the trade deficit decreases doesn't mean an increase in GDP. = C + G + I + (X -M).

That's all.
Reply
thebigshot
Jul 30, 2025 12:56am
Permalink
Everyone expecting GDP to come around 2.4-2.5%
But my GDP modal showed possibility of a -0.2%.
Am i right or wrong?
Reply
Schultz
Jul 29, 2025 11:08am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#24E0
Responding to Trader #6443-->>Lower trade deficits = higher GDP.... it's early , but that's good for the US !
What do you think about the 1% fall in exports?
Reply
Trader#6443
Jul 29, 2025 10:19am
Permalink
seems the Tariff is working bad to our economy?
Reply
Trader#24E0
Jul 29, 2025 10:36am
Permalink
Responding to Trader #6443-->>Lower trade deficits = higher GDP.... it's early , but that's good for the US !
Reply
Trader#C34F
Jul 30, 2025 8:09am
Permalink
Quoting thebigshot
Everyone expecting GDP to come around 2.4-2.5% But my GDP modal showed possibility of a -0.2%. Am i right or wrong?
Yes you are wrong.
Reply

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