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FOMC Summary of Economic Projections
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 17-18, 2025, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2025 to 2027 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The ... (full story)
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FOMC decision: No rate change
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) June 18, 2025
The median 2025 “dot” is unchanged at two cuts (by the barest possible margin)
There’s a bigger crew of policymakers (seven) who penciled in no cuts. pic.twitter.com/uWeKl0bM1U
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From the SEP:
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) June 18, 2025
The median core PCE projection for 2025 is 3.1%, but there’s one official that put down 2.5% and three that put down 3.5%.
The median number of cuts for 2026 fell to one cut (previously two).
No one changed their long-run dot (or if they did, they traded places) https://t.co/cC5vqg7JiQ
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Fed Projections Indicate 7 Out Of 19 Officials Anticipate No Rate Cuts In 2025, 2 Officials Predict One Cut, 8 Expect Two Cuts, And 2 Foresee Three Cuts
— RedboxGlobal (@RedboxWire) June 18, 2025
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Fed Policymakers Predict 1.4% GDP Growth in 2025, Down from 1.7% in March, with Long-Term Growth Steady at 1.8%
— RedboxGlobal (@RedboxWire) June 18, 2025
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From federalreserve.gov|Jun 18, 2025Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE pic.twitter.com/CDPeF3DvRL FED: UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTLOOK HAS DIMINISHED, STILL ELEVATED
From forex.com|Jun 18, 2025Gold prices have continued to find buyers at higher-lows, even with the continued hold of resistance below the $3500/oz level that came into play in April. The rally in gold ran ...
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From youtube.com|Jun 18, 2025|4 commentsThe Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, ...
From @FirstSquawk|Jun 18, 2025FED'S POWELL: INFLATION HAS BEEN RUNNING SOMEWHAT ABOVE GOAL || SAYS CURRENT POLICY STANCE LEAVES US WELL POSITIONED Fed's Powell: Labor market conditions have remained solid. Fed’s Powell: Current Policy Stance Is Well Positions To Respond, Economy Is In A Solid Position - GDP Measure Complicated By Unusual Swing In Net Exports - Labour Mkt Is Not A Source Of Inflation, Is Broadly In Balance - Estimates Total PCE Prices Rose 2.3% In May, Core Up 2.6%… FED'S POWELL: AVOIDING PERSISTENT INFLATION ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON KEEPING LONG-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WELL-ANCHORED || SAYS OBLIGATION IS TO KEEP ONE-TIME PRICE INCREASE FROM BECOMING ONGOING INFLATION PROBLEM Fed's Powell: Tariff effects on inflation could be more persistent.
From @FirstSquawk|Jun 18, 2025FED'S POWELL: WE'VE HAD GOODS INFLATION MOVING UP A BIT, EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF THAT IN SUMMER || SAYS EXPECT TO SEE MORE IN GOODS INFLATION THIS SUMMER || SAYS TAKES SOME TIME FOR TARIFFS TO WORK WAY TO CONSUMER Fed's Powell: We can't assume inflation will just move up, and then back down, as projections show. FED'S POWELL: IN LOOKING AT FED POLICY PATH PROJECTIONS, FOCUS ON NEAR-TERM; HARD TO FORECAST LONGER TERM || SAYS ADAPTING IN REAL-TIME TO ESTIMATES OF HOW HIGH TARIFFS WILL BE FED'S POWELL: SENTIMENT HAS COME UP FROM VERY LOW LEVELS, THOUGH STILL DEPRESSED || SAYS HOUSING SITUATION IS A LONGER-RUN PROBLEM *POWELL: BEST WE CAN DO FOR HOUSING IS RESTORE PRICE STABILITY *POWELL: ECONOMY APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT 1.5%-2% PACE
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