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Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading

  • #141
  • Nov 15, 2021 11:04am Nov 15, 2021 11:04am
Quoting gepards
{quote} Week 1 done. Received in funding fees 0.85%. If all weeks like this then estimated yearly ~40%. tnx ryuryu for this crypto futures SELL idea
You are welcome my friend!

BTW, you can try some kind of arbitrage strategy here. Since we have positive funding on 1x short with no liquidation price ever (that will hedge deposit in dollars) you can also run 1x long on futures, where are no funding at all. Also check ETH. It has wider movements than BTC (but equal base movements), so if the position goes underwater I prefer even to hedge it with ETH trade, because you can recover much faster and with higher probability. But there are no "no liq price" on ETH. Keep in in mind, it is important too.

Long XAU + 2.13%

Look how nice it dropped exactly to 8 EMA low (1H tf) and bounced back. Due to low volume the trade was made from 100 ema to 50 ema on 1m TF.

Attached Image


Stats for today:
Forex: +16.67%
Crypto: +0.09%

p.s. bybit exchange has removed 6h and 12h timeframes. I don't know the reason, but it is strange. It was extremely easy to trade. Now I have to use MT5 to see that kind on TFs...

Attached Image
Observer effect
  • #142
  • Edited 3:20am Nov 16, 2021 2:53am | Edited 3:20am
Think thank, some easy way to start trading with delta. image below is one proposal.

Soon I will take these kind of entries, the ask x bid and delta,volume gives excellent confirmations.
the ema is only for ring bells. Absolutely will join delta volume forex gang. My aim is just add couple trades more per day.
Good news is if you ask from CD about order book kind of stuff.

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  • #143
  • Nov 16, 2021 5:31am Nov 16, 2021 5:31am
Quoting kk100
Think thank, some easy way to start trading with delta. image below is one proposal. Soon I will take these kind of entries, the ask x bid and delta,volume gives excellent confirmations. the ema is only for ring bells. Absolutely will join delta volume forex gang. My aim is just add couple trades more per day. Good news is if you ask from CD about order book kind of stuff. {image}
Hi KK100

The best way to profit with the volume information is to establish the minimal amount of volume needed to expand price, then draw a line on the volume levels.
For example Ryan and myself look for volume on Gold above 333 units per minute. This is the tipping edge for expansion of price when the volume consisently keeps moving price in either a bullish or bearish direction. I would go as far as saying trade in the direction of the move provide volume average is above that figure and your chances of winning are above 85%.

Unfortunity most of the day volume sits between 70 - 150 units so trading the move is not recommended. Looking at Gold today, there was only a 30 minute period where trading hard as volume exceeded 333 units was rewarded. I achieved my daily profit in 30 minutes in 5 trades.
Now I await New York open where hopefully some more strong volume occurs - then trade the delta as it needs trading.

Using astute position sizing, I will trible trade size when Strong Delta is supported by Strong Volume.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #144
  • Nov 16, 2021 6:38am Nov 16, 2021 6:38am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi KK100 The best way to profit with the volume information is to establish the minimal amount of volume needed to expand price, then draw a line on the volume levels. For example Ryan and myself look for volume on Gold above 333 units per minute. This is the tipping edge for expansion of price when the volume consisently keeps moving price in either a bullish or bearish direction. I would go as far as saying trade in the direction of the move provide volume average is above that figure and your chances of winning are above 85%. Unfortunity...
Thank you Rick, tip and info.

I was first thinking it will be easy to just jump, but its near 10yrs ago trading index futures,
and my tools for ninjatrader 7 (delta,footprint) wont anymore work, and have to migrate version 8, what i wont do, because some of GoM's history recorder don't also work. I was wrong thinking its easy to just look ninja templates , how i was using delta etc..

So, I appreciate much.
  • #145
  • Nov 16, 2021 7:13am Nov 16, 2021 7:13am
XAU long +8.63%
XAU long +3.56%
XAU long +1.27%


Stats for today:

Forex: +13.93%
Crypto: underwater BTC long with 4 trades in total, about -2.8% (average entry price is 62068.70)
My mistake that I have opened the trade late night yesterday and was not watching it. So in the morning I was it deep underwater.
Observer effect
  • #146
  • Nov 16, 2021 7:17am Nov 16, 2021 7:17am
Quoting Traderview
{image}
UPdate: Hope you all enjoying this ride.

Watch out the prices mentioned inside the chart.

Before and Now
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  • #147
  • Edited 10:12am Nov 16, 2021 7:23am | Edited 10:12am
XAU long +8.63%
XAU long +3.56%
XAU long +1.27%
XAU long +2.04%
XAU long +2.71%
XAU long +0.75% in 2 trades, so I must stop now. Mistakes and greed in game.
XAU long +2.47%
XAU short +0.82%

Stats for today:

Forex: +24.29%
Crypto: underwater BTC long with 4 trades in total, about -2.8% (average entry price is 62068.70)
My mistake that I have opened the trade late night yesterday and was not watching it. So in the morning I saw it deep underwater.


Quoting kk100
Absolutely will join delta volume forex gang.
You are welcome! More good traders with volume/delta more sharing and learning!Feel free to join our vol/delta crazy trading discord group haha

Quoting Traderview
{quote} UPdate: Hope you all enjoying this ride. Watch out the prices mentioned inside the chart. Before and Now {image} {image}
If you draw more lines and rectangles not on daily but weekly chart the price will bounce from some for sure!
Observer effect
  • #148
  • Nov 16, 2021 10:24am Nov 16, 2021 10:24am
Quoting ryuryu
XAU long +8.63% XAU long +3.56% XAU long +1.27% XAU long +2.04% XAU long +2.71% XAU long +0.75% in 2 trades, so I must stop now. Mistakes and greed in game. XAU long +2.47% XAU short +0.82% Stats for today: Forex: +24.29% Crypto: underwater BTC long with 4 trades in total, about -2.8% (average entry price is 62068.70) My mistake that I have opened the trade late night yesterday and was not watching it. So in the morning I saw it deep underwater. {quote} You are welcome! More good traders with volume/delta more sharing...
Thanks, not know about good trader. Maybe will join later when can understand more.
Because sometimes reading your results and posts, I am confused does your Siesta means Fiesta.
  • #149
  • Edited 11:48am Nov 16, 2021 11:35am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting ryuryu
BTW, you can try some kind of arbitrage strategy here. Since we have positive funding on 1x short with no liquidation price ever (that will hedge deposit in dollars) you can also run 1x long on futures, where are no funding at all.
tnx ryuryu

as i understand there are 2 choices with BTC futures:

1) If you believe more in fiat $ then open only short (Perpetual futures) and earn ~40% yearly and all at the end you have is initial $ + 40% profits in $

2) If you believe more in BTC then open short (Perpetual futures) + open buy (Delivery futures) and earn ~20% yearly - at the end initial BTC + 20% profits in BTC

2nd choice profits from funding are 2x less because we need 2 equal opposite positions opened - so we split our capital.

Quoting ryuryu
Also check ETH. It has wider movements than BTC (but equal base movements), so if the position goes underwater I prefer even to hedge it with ETH trade, because you can recover much faster and with higher probability. But there are no "no liq price" on ETH. Keep in in mind, it is important too.
If I understand correct - can I open futures trading account with ETH as account currency then all the same will apply to ETH too? Then i can hold short forever and also no liquidation will be possible? Do I get it right?

Historical funding fees for ETH seems more profitable (about + 10%) than BTC - here I posted for BTC and here is for ETH:

Attached Image


My btc short now in profits +2% as BTC went down. I can now close the position by adding 2% BTC to my account. And re-open short position with more size.
  • #150
  • Nov 16, 2021 11:48am Nov 16, 2021 11:48am
Quoting gepards
If I understand correct - can I open futures trading account with ETH as account currency then all the same will apply to ETH too? Then i can hold short forever and also no liquidation will be possible? Do I get it right?
Yes, exactly! You are absolutely right. Also you can create simple dashboard using API from different exchanges. Then you can have whole picture.
For example, you have BTC long and it go lower -1%, then if you have BTC short with same size it is +1%. So in fact you have only funding as your profit and limit entry/exit as rebates. But, if you have ETH long instead of BTC long (of course you must be sure in your strategy) then ETH short will be not 1%, but 1.5% (because the moves are wider). So here you will have +0.5% more from your whole position + rebates + funding.
Same way it can be done with 3,5,10,any crypto assets the same time.
Observer effect
  • #151
  • Nov 16, 2021 2:01pm Nov 16, 2021 2:01pm
Quoting Traderview
{quote} UPdate: Hope you all enjoying this ride. Watch out the prices mentioned inside the chart. Before and Now {image} {image}
What is your projection on btcusd
  • #152
  • Nov 16, 2021 9:36pm Nov 16, 2021 9:36pm
Quoting Nd10
{quote} What is your projection on btcusd
I think it will bounce back from 200 EMA on 6h and from 100 ema on 12h. But who knows. My long is underwater, average entry price now is 61554

Attached Image
Observer effect
  • #153
  • Nov 16, 2021 10:16pm Nov 16, 2021 10:16pm
Early bird, catch the worm, it was too big to chew, fattest piece slip away.
I must admit this kind of move and early morning, i didn't had a balls stay longer in position, and took my regular pips.
Quick moves i am worry about latency, mine is between 113-123ms.

Attached Image
  • #154
  • Nov 16, 2021 10:54pm Nov 16, 2021 10:54pm
Quoting kk100
Early bird, catch the worm, it was too big to chew, fattest piece slip away. I must admit this kind of move and early morning, i didn't had a balls stay longer in position, and took my regular pips. Quick moves i am worry about latency, mine is between 113-123ms. {image}
Perfect trade! You have picket exact bottom. Love that kind of trades!

I have decided to close my BTC in -25.12% loss. I think it will bounce back and go in my direction as usual but without me

I made 3 mistakes with that trade:
1. I opened the position and go to bed
2. I didn't hedge it x2 on 1h TF (missed the train)
3. Was adding more in hope it will reverse

Since I have +76.95% profit from forex yet, and actual crypto loss (due to price dropped) in $ is -32.96% I have to transfer about 35% from my forex profits to cover the crypto losses.
Observer effect
  • #155
  • Nov 16, 2021 11:41pm Nov 16, 2021 11:41pm
Ouch

"From a neuro-cognitive perspective, pain is a broader term than simply the ouch of stubbing a toe."
— Alison Escalante, Forbes, 1 Nov. 2021

I was thinking you never sleep, and have a projector painting charts on ceiling, using bionics tick sound waves from headphones.

It won't take long from you be over high watermark again.

  • #156
  • Nov 17, 2021 12:25am Nov 17, 2021 12:25am
GU, this is not perfect example, "delta is not enough", are these "wide" bars and delta,volume, one of your setups ?

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  • #157
  • Nov 17, 2021 2:02am Nov 17, 2021 2:02am
Quoting kk100
Ouch "From a neuro-cognitive perspective, pain is a broader term than simply the ouch of stubbing a toe." — Alison Escalante, Forbes, 1 Nov. 2021 I was thinking you never sleep, and have a projector painting charts on ceiling, using bionics tick sound waves from headphones. It won't take long from you be over high watermark again.
No regrets, there is no way to trade without losses. Let's see how fast I will recover it. In fact I have already recovered in with my forex profits. That's why I'm trading both forex and crypto to have an ability to hedge risks.

Quoting kk100
GU, this is not perfect example, "delta is not enough", are these "wide" bars and delta,volume, one of your setups ? {image}
In my opinion it is just a great example. As I see there were big red candle and then huge sell delta. I don't know what is volume in your chart (blue or red/green), but both was big too. Also the price was far away from its average. I always measure "far away", for me it is for exampe >1x ADR, then it is "far away".
Observer effect
  • #158
  • Edited 5:33am Nov 17, 2021 3:10am | Edited 5:33am
XAU long +1.01%

Okay, new day started with huge crypto loss and pretty good XAU trade. Let's learn some lessons from my mistakes.

1. Dot not trade&sleep
2. Cut the losses fast

These statements are obvious, but

BTC price is still underwater. But it tend to reverse. So I'll wait. I don't want to open short here and don't want to open long.

gepards, if you mind please make some calculations:
Open short with 1x leverage with inverse perpetual, and 1x long with inverse future the same size. Both nominated in BTC. Both with limit orders entry to gain rebates.
That will hedge BTC amount and will gain BTC as well. And no matter what current price is.
The task is to find max possible leverage to gain max possible amount. I see the problem here with very fast movements where you can get liquidated. So if you have time please check historical data.


XAU is in uptrend.
GU is bearish.

I have removed EU from my screens, because I have only 4 screens: one for fun and 3 for trading. So sorry EU, you are too slow and not interesting for me now

UPD:
Long XAU +3.13%
Observer effect
  • #159
  • Nov 17, 2021 6:01am Nov 17, 2021 6:01am
Please give EU one more try

Its coming to padre, trying to look when up movement stalls.

I have only three monitors, one for trading and two for fun.

Never read many post from George, but it start looking one of Georges, maybe i am wrong about Georges setups, not familiar.
  • #160
  • Edited 8:50am Nov 17, 2021 6:24am | Edited 8:50am
Short GU +1.10%

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May be this trade will be interesting.

1. On H4 and higher the trend is down.
2. On H4 price hit EMA 8 high.

Now let's go down to the 1M TF.

Here we see:
1. 0.33% level. It is the same like +0.25% for EU.
2. Previous day high (dashed line)
3. Asian High (dark green line a little bit higher Previous day high line)
4. Price itself sits on +1 ADR
5. Delta changed from green to red and very low volume.

Will it bounce back? For sure. Too many factors.

UPD:
Long XAU +0.68%
Long XAU +2.12%
Long XAU +2.12% - in 2 trades. That was very risky.
Long XAU +1.17%

I'm done for today:
Forex: +11.88%
Crypto: -27.84% (floating)

UPD:
Crypto close in -35.76% loss. Another one mistake is to let the loss increase. I have to close it yesterday, but I hedged it and released today. And got -10% more.
But my profits from forex since second start are +97.97%, so I can handle that loss. And no regrets anyway

UPD:
Short BTC +4.02%
Short BTC +1.57%
Observer effect
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