XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Great analysis again

CME increased COMEX gold and silver future margin requirements again by another 15%. No statement has been released (that I'm aware of) to explain why this latest increase was necessary. The margin requirement is now approximately double the highest I remember it ever being which is a lot of pressure to sell, yet gold and silver initially rallied today nevertheless. If gold and silver hold onto any gains despite the new margin size I might cautiously consider the bottom to be in place (near-term anyway) as a 15% margin requirement increase is a significant hurdle to overcome, but silver has already fallen into negative territory. A closer higher for either would be independently bullish (far more so for gold), but there's several points of key resistance (again, more so for gold) to overcome before sell-into-strength turns into "buy", and silver does not look like its ready to join the party just yet as I'm writing this.


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Non-tradable information and speculative thought exploration follows. The only useful takeaway is accepting that market rigging is a fact you have to accept when trading gold and silver.

At 11:13:30 AM DST today (happened too long ago for me to see the time more precisely) spot silver plunged ~7% with very low volume and no corresponding move in any silver future price (with a 2020 strike date -- I wasn't curious enough to check every possible strike chart). Within the next 30 seconds the move completely unwound. 1 minute later the silver price started to fall for real (i.e. both the spot and futures prices) with non-significant general volume. This corresponds with the gold/silver ratio dropping to exactly 117.5% but returning higher afterwards.

As I mentioned before, I believe silver is being disproportionately held back until the gold/silver ratio hits some magic percentage, but it could be as simple as the high U.S. dollar and cratered silver price make non-U.S. silver a bargain for anyone trying to amass (more of) it, perhaps to buy and sell within the recent (massive) range.

Alternately, one could speculate that the high U.S. dollar with a now lower gold price allows for the purchase of a greater amount of non-U.S. owned physical gold. A significantly higher G/S ratio would allow that gold to be swapped for a record amount of physical silver -- perhaps with an entity which is known to have silver but that needs physical gold to mint coins because a sizable portion of their inventory has been missing since 1974. Should the new owner of this silver happen to already control the world's largest silver holding, said entity would be able to virtually set the silver price, and subsequently the gold/silver ratio, potentially yielding greater profits than simply buying silver at the current discount and allowing the price to rise as many expect should be happening but isn't.

Both parties could then do a partial swap when the ratio reverses, leaving one party with a huge overall gain, a market-controlling amount of real silver, and a market-influencing amount of federally guaranteed (albeit possibly non-existent) "real" gold. (Criminal charges have done nothing to slow down price manipulation so why not double down?) The other entity would be left with enough physical gold to mint the coins they haven't been able to for undisclosed reasons for a suspiciously long time (plus have more wiggle room in the case of a real audit).

Alternately, the first party could swap back for non-U.S. gold when the ratio hits some target low and sell it, perhaps to the aforementioned entity with virtually bottomless pockets (it's like they can literally print money) that desperately needs it at what will be a record high price, or to a non-U.S. entity to take advantage of what will be by then a record low U.S. dollar: The ideal double-whammy to maximize profits.

The CME contribution to price suppression could fit into one of these scenarios (the major players tend to be in bed together and need co-operation to pull off their more ambitious schemes) or it may be as simple as their needing more physical gold and silver to replace what they've lost over the years due to customers actually taking physical delivery and have accepted that the fines they could receive such criminal manipulation as "the cost of doing business".

next target 1605

Margin requirements on my COMEX gold futures have been increased yet again, but I cannot determine if this is on the part of CME (nothing on their site) or my brokerage (likewise nothing on their site other than the message regarding smaller margins a week ago, live support never gets past "waiting", e-mail support is now 3-5 business days due to overwhelming demand, and phone support is currently a busy signal).

Would anyone who trades gold and silver COMEX futures please confirm if their margin requirements increased again today, and if so, if they've received notification that it's due to CME or their brokerage. My entry requirement for gold futures is now $16,262.50 USD and the maintenance requirement is $13,010. Three weeks ago it was something like $6,250 and $5,000 respectively (not exactly sure because it was virtually inconsequential then). Double was bad enough but now it's almost triple, plus my account is Canadian dollars which adds an additional 10% premium (USD/CAD is 1.44 now vs. 1.30 then).

Gold appears to have two headwinds right now:

1. There’s a deflationary liquidation trade where everyone just sells everything to meet margin calls.
2. Bond yields are going up from all the fiscal stimulus. Bonds compete with gold as a the safety trade, and now that the competition pays better its hurting gold. This could be a game changer...

I can complain about the spread on Gold but cannot complain on the leverage

That's a really bad spread, like what you'd get on a one-year-out future contract. Is that what you typical have to deal with? I had a problem with my brokerage ignoring stops (only stops) for August gold. April and June stops triggered within a dime, buy and sell orders for any strike date triggered precisely to the penny, but August gold (which I was using as my hedge contract) completely ignored any stops regardless of volatility. That was irksome, but I'm glad I don't have to deal with an almost 80¢ spread on a daily basis. ...but I'd still trade that for losing two-thirds of my margin.

I have variable spread. Worse during volatile time better in non-volatile time such as now in the Asian session With the high long swap rate I never keep a position on gold overnight.

Maybe it would be pleasing to all if when you next speak of margins you also explain to the forum on what basis they are calculated by the exchange. To the best of your understanding. This information is freely available and understood by prudent traders, so...

I am being gentle.

Gold about to rise inline with bitcoin and spx?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XA...Is-about-rise/

With time being, yes.

As predicted, gold is moving upwards. Latest analysis:

#GOLD / Weekly & H4

#GOLD / H1 / Bearish Idea

Whats going on with gold ? Anyone can explain? Please alal broker freezes

As per my weekly analysis I am currently long on gold and I will stay long as long as I do not get a confirmation to go short. In my quick update I mentioned that I am waiting for a confirmation on daily or 4h chart to go short. Until I get that I stay long. Once I have the confirmation to go short, I will close my long position, go short and follow the plan to go to blue horizontal lines again as mentioned in today's update.

For me this zone around moving averages and 61.8 is important. Unless that is broken, I do not see anything. If I get a reversal sign on 4H time frame in this zone, I will close part or full long position and may initiate a short position. If this zone is broken then next level is obviously 78.6 hence a wider zone.

This 2618 Trading strategy as well that I am following here where we have a double top and then the price returns to 61.8 fib and then starts to fall.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XA...d-As-Expected/

Crazy spread on Gold (8$)

on Axi was some swings even worse today, up to 20$....that with London already open!

Unbelievable, ICM is catching up .