XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

There's a good chance gold will come down a little bit before the move higher. If the coronavirus continues to spread I'd say that 1750 is conservative. If it's somehow contained, the damage it's done already might be enough to initiate the long over due correction in US equities, thus pushing up gold prices anyways. The next couple of weeks will be important in terms of coronavirus numbers out of the US. We'll find out if it's been community spreading which is the big unknown right now since the virus can be carried without showing symptoms.

#GOLD / H4

Open the link in your computer to play the chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XA...ential-Target/

Catalyst: Price Action
As long as it stays below 1650, I reckon gold will fall to 1600 in the next few days.

PS: This trade fail if XAU can breakout and close above 1650

Feel free to contact me if you have any questions. Telegram: @Gold_Cartel , or you can join my GOLD Telegram free channel https://t.me/goldcartel

Its risk off today with equities down 6% and gold is down too. Gold normally goes up when equities are down, so what gives? Well, bond yields are actually up today. Higher bond yields are what's hurting gold. The real question is, why are bond yields up on a day like this? The flight to safety trade is broken.

Something isn't adding up and one thing is for sure, the markets will return to equilibrium through the invisible hand. Check out the Gold/Equity correlation today (via GC and ES):

Two quick scalps today on Asian session +25 +37.

Next stop 1600

Without warning (that I'm aware of), CME has increased the margin requirements for COMEX gold and silver futures after the North American market close, again, which makes the third time in a week which I believe is unprecedented even when gold and silver were on their way to hitting their respective highs a decade ago. Margin now stands at roughly twice what it was when gold topped $1,600 which potentially halves the number of active trades going forward which under normal circumstances (when global markets aren't crashing) would slow their advance or decline; however, with the continued fall of stock prices combined with bond and treasury yields approaching zero, further rate cuts expected, oil wars, ongoing U.S./China (among other) trade disputes, Brexit still unresolved, additional global easing/stimulus spending, plus Covid-19 panic, I wouldn't bank on that being the case.

There it goes to 1600

Not bad

Open the link in your computer to play the chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XA...ential-Target/

Chart mid-trade
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EO3Cxyju/

Feel free to contact me if you have any questions. Telegram: @Gold_Cartel , or you can join my GOLD Telegram free channel https://t.me/goldcartel

Gold is normally thought of as hedge against market volatility, but I just completed a study showing it tends to go down during extreme market volatility. Here it is if anyone wants to see: https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...0#post12809130

With all the mayhem in markets all over the world gold should be much higher but is not. Does anybody have a clue about why gold is down?
By the way trading with Renko boxes worth less than $2 is totally useless.

The previous message from EF5 gives a good hint about the reason: "Gold is normally thought of as hedge against market volatility, but I just completed a study showing it tends to go down during extreme market volatility." So to cover their margin call, they liquidate their gold positions.

Think Gold is at the right support zone now. So after this new 4hrs candle stick close, that will tell us if the Gold ready to gain power back or not. Let cross our fingers now and let see. Patient is the key here now.

According to some sources (no actual verification, so, ya know, could be rubbish) this has been happening on quite a massive scale.

Money management, folks. It all matters, all the time. Probably an issue for folk with massive positions who simply cannot liquidate quickly. But when they are forced to...I read that a fairly significant Chicago market maker went belly up the other day.

Excellent that you have crunched the numbers. This is useful. And now we have a suggested cause, above (edit- amongst the plethora of other causes, of course - they are coming from all angles. Gets all too complicated for my remaining neurons, which doesn't take much). Something to chew on for going forward, yes?

Others have noticed this "tendency", but have been too lazy to go beyond eyeballing some charts...not good enough to even bother with.

Good day traders, here is my outlook on GOLD 1H/1D configuration

#GOLD / Weekly & H4

Three reasons:

The first I already posted: CME doubled the margin requirements for gold and silver futures in the past two weeks which represents, by far, the largest proportion of how gold and silver are traded. Anyone holding gold or silver futures was forced to sell half their positions if they wanted to maintain their same level of margin. Even at maximum margin I can only hold 75% of the amount I was holding just two weeks ago.

Secondly, margins calls in general, not just for gold and silver, are forcing the sale of all asset classes and gold and silver are being caught up in that. Today I got a notice from my brokerage that I should expect margins to be reduced by up to 50% in the near future. If this is happening at other brokerages as well, that 75% I mentioned is going to become 37.5% which is going to cause another round of massive global selling, stocks and metals alike.

Finally, gold and silver are essentially no different than any other stock. Regardless of your reasons for valuing gold and silver, when every asset class in every market in the world is selling, gold and silver are going to be sold off as well. Notice, however, that while nearly ever market index was down ~10% yesterday with trading halted multiple times throughout the day, silver only fell ~5% and gold ~3%, so they both actually outperformed most other assets.

...

The question I have is why JP Morgan Chase, the single largest owner of silver in the world, is still suppressing the silver price during what seems like the ideal situation for them to take advantage of their position. It's hard to imagine them being able to control much more so I've discounted the odds of them trying to engineer a greater differential between gold and silver to perform a swap before letting the price take off. Perhaps they are they waiting for USD to go lower to maximize their leverage to push the price higher, timed so that USD reaches a new high when they finally sell, but that is inconsistent with what we've seen in the past when gold and silver prices have peaked. Whatever their plan, it must involve more elements than simply having the market crash since they've yet to pull the trigger after a decade of accumulating their massive silver position.

Gold prices are being suppressed right now, as covered by KADC and EF5. Let's remember that gold prices are generally priced in US dollars. During true flight to safety/quality, tail risk events, the US dollar is the ultimate safe haven. The US dollar sustains significant upward pressure for a period of time and gold will have a tough time appreciating until this subsides.

Here's what's important to remember. If the crisis of 2008 has taught us anything, it's that the psychology of the markets is fragile and after a crisis we should expect to see hedge funds/money managers/individual investors/etc diversify a higher allocation into gold. This lasted for years after the 2008 financial crisis and the longer the coronavirus impacts the global economy, the longer we should see this effect even after we are out of the woods. In short, gold prices might be declining right now and possibly in the near term, but it's an excellent buying opportunity as it dips. I'd expect to see $2000 gold within a year and that's as conservative of a forecast as I've got when it comes to gold.