Palladium trading

Indeed. Unacceptable in my opinion. Very angry with them about that.

Interesting article: Palladium’s Biggest Miner Takes Steps to Cool Red-Hot Market

Without a swing producer, the palladium market won't be impacted by any one company trying to provide relief. Even though Nornickel (Norilsk) is the world's largest palladium producer, it's not by that much when compared to the Saudis and the oil market. In order to really impact prices, a few of the top palladium producing companies would have to agree to add supply, which from what I've read isn't the case.

Global Prime e.g. did not suspend Palladium, so whatever ICM is doing, it smells like bucket shop ..

absolutely without a doubt. everyone is allowing palladium trading. its just ICM... so mad at them. what's the point of a broker if you can't trade!

Palladium is outperforming the other precious metals and it's not really even close.

Very much cornered market. It doesn't seem to be trading freely. Car productions has been hit massively! China has been shut down for nearly 8 weeks now.
So who is buying it? The price of Palladium has been controlled by select group. My broker stopped trading Palladium which is very annoying and disappointing. If they allowed it; I will be just buying and won't even care about selling it. Just BUY BUY BUY.

With South Africa on lockdown, Palladium is rallying big. Platinum too, but not to the same extent. Here's Palladium (CME contract):

When I first started with physical metals Palladium ozTs were readily available for about $250 bucks.

But with silver at appx $7 and Gold at appx $700 my interests stuck with the two main metals. Especially Silver at $7! And that was down from a high.

Shortly thereafter PD doubled to $500 and I always made the excuse it was too much for a semi illiquid metal when the others are at steals. I kick myself every time I think of that false justification.

It’s illiquidity would’ve helped me hold and grow a stash!
I’ve now seen it go from appx. $250 per ozT to a whopping 11 x that! With a spot high of appx $2750!

I mean damn! That has literally been the easiest trade of the past two decades. Buy any major dip and hold.

It’s not like you can just walk in to some shoddy Cash for Gold joint and expect to unload ozs of PD and get paid close to 2k for it. You’ll either get seriously underquoted, or get a reply of sorry, we don’t deal with this metal. Not to mention those who don’t even know what it is!

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Unless you know a good deal about it and it’s industrial apps, mine locations and output, supply and demand, etc., I don’t recommend it for day trading at all. There are guys that trade the Futures contracts for Institutional or Hedge funds but they’ve been in the biz.

The chart can be very choppy and literally just move sideways then drop, then double up. If anything look at longer time frames and I expect a continued rise with dips along the way.

This is all due to its industrial applications and potential future apps., as well as stealing value from PT.

As a monetary base it doesn’t hold a candle to gold.

For instance say tomorrow someone develops a PT based alloy that does the same as PD does but uses only 1/4 ozT of PT, PD would drop off sharply. It could easily lose half its value in a week.

This cannot or does not happen to Gold due to its role as the “universal currency.”

PT was the metal pushing 2500 years ago, although there were mining issues that helped that price.

On the flip The US Mint and other GVMNTs make official coins with it and it has a role in jewelry, so even if it were to fall off, I would still expect it to remain in demand in certain sectors, the aforementioned being some.

Palladium (and platinum) are looking strong. It broke out today. It's at its highest levels since early March. A move higher will probably depend on how precious metals are impacted by what the Fed does tomorrow. Long term fundamentals still support Palladium (and precious metals).

Crazy divergence in Palladium outperforming Platinum today.

Palladium is tanking:

Great thread!

Since prior posts, Palladium/Platinum ratio remains strong with Palladium currently trading just over 2:1 price ratio to Platinum. This continues to run contrary to popular economic belief that the two metals should trade near a 1:1 ratio given the major similarities in use. I did some digging and, after being tipped-off, may have found a partial explanation for the price divergence between the two metals.

If you take a look at global production of Platinum vs. Palladium, Palladium has a significantly more diverse distribution of producers.


What we are seeing in price may be, to some extent, the premium paid as insurance against supply chain disruptions. If this is true, it is likely that this effect would have been greatly exaggerated over the course of COVID given the uncertainty surrounding supply chain stability.


At first glance, this concept seems to hold. In the above Market chart, the first vertical line coincides with WHO's declaration of a pandemic while the second vertical coincides with the announcement of a vaccine with 90% efficacy. If this concept is to hold (which seems valid in the medium-term given the slow speed of dispersion of production) the two should converge back towards 1:1 and Palladium would be a good short candidate barring any major steps backwards in 1) global COVID circumstances and 2) macro risk sentiment.

I'm interested to hear any feedback on this idea.

Also, I need to examine this concept a bit more but it seems that the run-up in the Palladium/Platinum prior to COVID (recall that news of COVID was being circulated as early as January) could have been the product of increasing protectionism and the related uncertainty surrounding global trade.

For better clarity, I've attached the full Palladium/Platinum market chart which was referenced in the above post.

Using prices noted on my profile's sentiment tracker which was updated shortly after the above posts were made:
Platinum has risen from $1100.90 to $1293.90. A gain of 17.53%
Palladium has risen from $2254.50 to $2384.90. If short, a loss of -5.78%
The Palladium/Platinum ratio has fallen from 2.048 to 1.843.

The long Platinum/short Palladium trade thus far is profitable. It's likely this behavior continues as we move closer to 1:1 Palladium/Platinum, but must keep an eye on increasing news of variant COVID strains.

Update:
At current prices..
Platinum has risen from $1100.90 to $1200.64. Gain of 9.06%
Palladium has risen from $2254.50 to $2357.39. Loss of -4.56%
Palladium/Platinum ratio has fallen from 2.048 to 1.962.

Basing the trade only off of the logic posted above, It's probably time to reduce or close this position. Improvements in the covid outlook aren't translating to adjustments in supply chains quite yet, and at this point it's not worth keeping the risk locked up in this trade considering the possible permanence of the supply-chain re-wire that we saw during covid.