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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #54,221
  • Feb 10, 2020 11:17pm Feb 10, 2020 11:17pm
Quoting Ef5
I think Silver is actually doing pretty well given the depressed industrial aspect from the coronavirus. {image}
While I am inclined to agree (similar with platinum), it is a deferral of current demand that in all probability will be relinquished at some later time (unless there are opportunities which will be gone in any foreseeable time horizon, which is possible).

Bit different to say natural gas, which if there is a slump in current demand that demand is gone forever - it is ephemeral.

That is pretty basic, and I made it up all by myself.

Reason number about 27 why I would be frazzled if I had to carefully consider the fundamentals and news of every "thing" I trade. That's just me.
  • #54,222
  • Feb 11, 2020 3:29pm Feb 11, 2020 3:29pm
Quoting Ef5
The Gold/Silver ratio is recovering nicely. It may hit a new high soon: {image} I think Silver is actually doing pretty well given the depressed industrial aspect from the coronavirus. {image}
On an intrinsic value basis the actual silver to gold ratio of 88.8 is way under valued. I guess you don't remember that it was only 20.4 in 1970
  • #54,223
  • Feb 11, 2020 4:27pm Feb 11, 2020 4:27pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} On an intrinsic value basis the actual silver to gold ratio of 88.8 is way under valued. I guess you don't remember that it was only 20.4 in 1970
Nah, I didn't get started trading in earnest until 2005. Were you trading in 1970?
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #54,224
  • Edited Feb 12, 2020 12:04am Feb 11, 2020 11:17pm | Edited Feb 12, 2020 12:04am
The Gold Silver ratio made a low of about 14 in January 1980. I have data only after 1977. Anything much before 1974 is irrelevant for gold. For that one person who doesn't know why, speak now.

I am not convinced about any meaningful causal link, and to use the word intrinsic in this respect causeth blood to excrete from the orifices whence my eyes and ears doth normally domicile in the ordinary course of events.

They are, on the whole, largely poor substitutes (unlike say platinum and palladium which are both close substitutes in catalytic converters).

I know some people do Dow/Gold ratio and all sorts of stuff which have little or no causal connection.

Reason number 2 why I care nothing much about "fundamentals". This list is not written down, as it is too long.
  • #54,225
  • Feb 12, 2020 4:58am Feb 12, 2020 4:58am
I open a buy 1562 this morning on Gold and look forward to sell around 1569. Have a good one y'all!
  • #54,226
  • Feb 12, 2020 4:41pm Feb 12, 2020 4:41pm
Quoting LloydOz
For that one person who doesn't know why, speak now.
Haha, I know exactly what you're referring to.
Quoting LloydOz
I am not convinced about any meaningful causal link, and to use the word intrinsic in this respect causeth blood to excrete from the orifices whence my eyes and ears doth normally domicile in the ordinary course of events. They are, on the whole, largely poor substitutes (unlike say platinum and palladium which are both close substitutes in catalytic converters).
Yep, very good point about gold and silver not being substitutes. They had an 84.7% correlation through the 2010s, but a lot of that could be reflecting dollar movement.
Quoting LloydOz
I know some people do Dow/Gold ratio and all sorts of stuff which have little or no causal connection. Reason number 2 why I care nothing much about "fundamentals". This list is not written down, as it is too long.
I've never gotten any use out of Dow/Gold either. Most of these ratios don't work to well so I generally stick to economic data over market data... Although one exception is Gold/Copper. I don't look at it often, but Gundlach says it's his favorite indicator for the 10y and they do track pretty well together.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #54,227
  • Edited 2:06am Feb 13, 2020 1:55am | Edited 2:06am
Quoting goldcartel
{quote} The same strategy, rinse and repeat. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions Telegram: @Gold_Cartel , or you can join my Telegram free channel https://t.me/goldcartel Chart before (January 28, 2020) https://www.tradingview.com/x/LT2FHLZH/ Chart after (January 31, 2020) https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZSqKVz7y/

I'm too busy lately with my client, didn't have a chance to post to this forum.
Not bad trade, can't complain.

Chart before
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1CdHmS1U/

Chart mid trade
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CkElfzsL/

Current market price chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ba189H87/

I would SELL LARGE LOT SIZE if it tests the upper flag and fails to breakout at 1585 zone, TP 1550 zone. fingers crossed.

Feel free to contact me if you have any questions Telegram: @Gold_Cartel , or you can join my Telegram free channel https://t.me/goldcartel
"Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news." Bernard Baruch
  • #54,228
  • Feb 13, 2020 3:28am Feb 13, 2020 3:28am
Today I'll take my chance on selling 1575 (potential double-top and 61.8% fibo level), and will add another sell if price goes up to the trend line 1580-ish.
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Charts: XAUUSD/UJ/EU. Tools: stoch/daily pivots/fibo/channels. Scalper.
  • #54,229
  • Feb 13, 2020 3:45pm Feb 13, 2020 3:45pm
Quoting EF5
{quote} Nah, I didn't get started trading in earnest until 2005. Were you trading in 1970?
I wasn't trading anything in 1970 since I was still at school. Around 10 years later my father showed me how to trade stocks and I got used to go to the broker's office almost every day in Burlington where I got some tips. I only started trading forex in 2005 and was very lucky to have a good mentor. Currency pairs did not move as much as today but I miss these days because now everything is so impersonal
  • #54,230
  • Feb 13, 2020 4:00pm Feb 13, 2020 4:00pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} I wasn't trading anything in 1970 since I was still at school. Around 10 years later my father showed me how to trade stocks and I got used to go to the broker's office almost every day in Burlington where I got some tips. I only started trading forex in 2005 and was very lucky to have a good mentor. Currency pairs did not move as much as today but I miss these days because now everything is so impersonal
That's awesome Hutch, I got started trading stocks too. Did you trade tech stocks during the internet bubble at all? One of my closest friends was trading back then and made his family millions during that period.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #54,231
  • Feb 13, 2020 4:06pm Feb 13, 2020 4:06pm
Quoting tush1822
an update Theme: US NFP data may create dip buying opportunities tomorrow. Technically- Consolidation near H4 Trend line and validation of the trend line touch at 1550 Fundamentally-Corona Virus weighing very high against PBOC easing, China's tariff cut decision, moderate US PMIs & Trump's win over impeachment. Overall: PA will stuck between 1550-1565 making 1550 better buying location upon reversal confirmation at smaller time frames. {image}
Attempt 2.
Theme: Dip buying before the triangle burst to 1611.40
Fundamental: Possible strong US retail sales tomorrow will make USD stronger & Virus outbreak is now into critical phase with no clear economic impact.
Technical : Triangle forming with Daily trend line is still intact. 20EMA (Daily)=1564.15
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  • #54,232
  • Feb 14, 2020 3:11am Feb 14, 2020 3:11am
Sometimes history can gives us a clue about the future? Se my chart! (The 8.6 years are the phi (3.14 x 1000 days))


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  • #54,233
  • Feb 14, 2020 6:27am Feb 14, 2020 6:27am
Divergence on daily chart, now where is the trigger price , I am not very good in intraday levels and intraday reversals.

Furthermore, trendline on daily chart from 1445 is broken mentioned by circle and is not being retested. lets see if it holds and just above it there is bearish trendline.

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P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #54,234
  • Feb 14, 2020 12:05pm Feb 14, 2020 12:05pm
XAU/USD Potential swing trade. This trade fails if it is breakout and close above the upper triangle line.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XA...tential-Trade/

Feel free to contact me if you have any questions Telegram: @Gold_Cartel , or you can join my Telegram free channel https://t.me/goldcartel
"Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news." Bernard Baruch
  • #54,235
  • Feb 14, 2020 3:01pm Feb 14, 2020 3:01pm
Quoting UnoWoo
Sometimes history can gives us a clue about the future? Se my chart! (The 8.6 years are the phi (3.14 x 1000 days)) {image}
The best historical clue about the future was the statement of General Foch after the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 stating: "This is not peace. It's an armistice for 20 years".
  • #54,236
  • Feb 16, 2020 10:08am Feb 16, 2020 10:08am
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #54,237
  • Feb 18, 2020 3:37am Feb 18, 2020 3:37am
Quoting tush1822
{quote} Attempt 2. Theme: Dip buying before the triangle burst to 1611.40 Fundamental: Possible strong US retail sales tomorrow will make USD stronger & Virus outbreak is now into critical phase with no clear economic impact. Technical : Triangle forming with Daily trend line is still intact. 20EMA (Daily)=1564.15 {image}
an update!!- 18/02/2020
Yesterday's after market Apple's warning over possible missing of sales target amid virus outbreak prove to be a first credible economic impact.
Technically- Gold opened up with gap and triggered the breakout from the triangle.
Possible target is 1611.
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  • #54,238
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:32am Feb 18, 2020 4:32am
Quoting goldcartel
XAU/USD Potential swing trade. This trade fails if it is breakout and close above the upper triangle line. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XA...tential-Trade/ Feel free to contact me if you have any questions Telegram: @Gold_Cartel , or you can join my Telegram free channel https://t.me/goldcartel

Chart update
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FPXbDfTQ/

This analysis valid as long as it stays below the major resistance zone at 1593.
"Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news." Bernard Baruch
  • #54,239
  • Feb 18, 2020 5:27am Feb 18, 2020 5:27am
Quoting tush1822
{quote} an update!!- 18/02/2020 Yesterday's after market Apple's warning over possible missing of sales target amid virus outbreak prove to be a first credible economic impact. {image}
Yes, it is a credible warning by Apple - people in Australia are also no longer buying anything made in China on account of the virus. Maybe coz we are racist, but that is another issue.
  • #54,240
  • Feb 18, 2020 6:08am Feb 18, 2020 6:08am
Gold
I use the futures market to analyze global GOLD price.

We have AB balancing wedge on background
1] After the breakout from the AB wedge (demand bar)....
2] ... price headed toward the overbought zone around 1600 line
3] Pull-back toward the center trend-line. Did bulls have enough power to overcome the psycho level 1600? No...
4] We got the pullback to the bottom line of the up-trend channel.
5] Minor Panic
6] DB after NS. Minor Bullish change after Panic. So, bulls changed the market character.
7] Demand bars.
So, it looks like the bulls are preparing the third attack over 1600 level. They are persistent enough, yeah?

The trading community can find the "cup and handle" pattern [8]. But I am focusing on the price/volume relationship. I see demand is generating around 1550-1580 zone. So, the breakout above psycho level 1600 is looking as the rational expectation IMO.
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Oleg Alexandrov, market analyst. Find me in Google
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