Thanks master @EventsTrader & hello everyone, Finally I found it! 
...want it most but use it worst!
High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper
- #363
- Dec 6, 2019 1:41am Dec 6, 2019 1:41am
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
{quote} I think a miss would produce a bigger move than a beat. The current market narrative is that the US had an economic slowdown, but 2020 will be better. If there's a beat, then it reinforces that narrative. A miss though might make traders think a recession is coming.
Thanks master @EventsTrader & hello everyone, Finally I found it!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #365
- Dec 9, 2019 8:38pm Dec 9, 2019 8:38pm
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
{quote} Seems like the beat drove a pretty big move on Friday. I feel like the downside risks US / UK / China and others is kind of built in with the trade war continuing to drag out and Brexit lingering. I think we have more impacts possible with strong results that beat expectations.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #366
- Dec 10, 2019 3:42pm Dec 10, 2019 3:42pm
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
FOMC Meeting - December Preview
Recent Impact (gold, eur/usd, usd/jpy)
Summary
- Federal Funds Rate
- FOMC Statement
- FOMC Economic Projections
- FOMC Press Conference (30 minutes later)
Forecasts
Fed Funds Rate
After three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed has shifted their stance and are now on hold. There is no chance that the Fed is going to take action on rates.
FOMC Statement
This is where the focus should be. Fed speakers have recently carried the message that a material change in economic outlook could trigger further rate cuts. The statement is where we are likely to get the overall sentiment of the Fed, which has been unusually divisive throughout the past several meetings.
FOMC Economic Projections
It's widely expected that we will get revisions lower on unemployment rate's near term path. Any 2019 rate forecasts will need to be brought in line with reality, which is already expected. The next rate move is currently projected to be a hike in 2021. No changes are expected.
FOMC Press Conference
Powell is likely to emphasize data dependency for future policy changes. The Q&A session is where things are a little uncertain as there will undoubtedly be questions about US-China trade. Expect volatility, as always.
Recent Impact (gold, eur/usd, usd/jpy)
The arrow is pointing to the start of Powell's press conference, 30 mins after the release time of the other data.
Summary
As always, expect significant volatility across asset classes. Given that a rate cut is off the table, volatility will probably not be one directional. The rate statement is expected to trigger an initial move. Then, when Powell takes the mic, expect the Q&A session to provide additional volatility.
This meeting could be relatively unpredictable. I'd advise caution. Whipsaws seem like a very real possibility throughout the data/statement releases and presser.
Good luck fellow traders!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #368
- Dec 10, 2019 7:56pm Dec 10, 2019 7:56pm
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
{quote} Great write-up, thanks ET! It looks like tomorrow's FOMC meeting should be the least eventful in recent history.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #369
- Dec 10, 2019 8:53pm Dec 10, 2019 8:53pm
...Recent Impact (gold, eur/usd, usd/jpy) The arrow is pointing to the start of Powell's press conference, 30 mins after the release time of the other data... Summary As always, expect significant volatility across asset classes. Given that a rate cut is off the table, volatility will probably not be one directional. The rate statement is expected to trigger an initial move. Then, when Powell takes the mic, expect the Q&A session to provide additional volatility. This meeting could be relatively unpredictable. I'd advise caution. Whipsaws seem like...
Good day all
...want it most but use it worst!
- #371
- Dec 11, 2019 12:39pm Dec 11, 2019 12:39pm
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #372
- Dec 11, 2019 12:39pm Dec 11, 2019 12:39pm
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
{quote} Thanks @ET ... for the recent impact ... ive never taken a deep study like yours in the past ... gotta pay more attention to these clues
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #373
- Dec 11, 2019 6:08pm Dec 11, 2019 6:08pm
{quote} It's go time! Locked and loaded.
got positive results on monday & tuesday ... last night, I didnt trade ... only watched, because i still havent fully absorbed your lessons
...want it most but use it worst!
- #374
- Dec 11, 2019 10:32pm Dec 11, 2019 10:32pm
{quote} No debate here. Besides this meeting not expected to be filled with any surprises, recently all the meetings have come with uncertainty on top of a split Fed on what actions to take. Now that the Fed is on hold again, the impact will come off a bit. It's still a ver important high impact event. {image}
How are other perspectives?, i dont have much experiece interpreting news figures
...want it most but use it worst!
- #375
- Dec 12, 2019 8:33pm Dec 12, 2019 8:33pm
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
{quote} ... Hi @ET, with the Fed Fund Rates remain unchanged as recent firgures from FOMC ... & the overall stock market seems like positive ... as my undertanding, GOLD may be in Range in short-term, isnt it? How are other perspectives?, i dont have much experiece interpreting news figures
I'd be careful ahead of tomorrow's close with any long risk assets or short safer ones. I think gold could gap up pretty big if the tariffs kick in on the 15th, which seems like still a likely scenario until we hear from China on trade talk progress. The stock market would also gap down Monday if tariffs kick in.
If a deal is reached, I'd expect an announcement during market hours. If not, I'd expect Trump to stay in line with what he's been doing and deliver the bad news at the close. If there's no announcement at all by shortly after the markets close, then that's a sign that talks are ongoing. That would actually probably be a good sign.
Regardless, if you want to preserve your capital I wouldn't expose it to the risk of holding over the close this weekend. Sometimes when things are this uncertain, it's best to take a step back.
Good luck!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #377
- Jan 2, 2020 3:14pm Jan 2, 2020 3:14pm
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #378
- Jan 7, 2020 1:43pm Jan 7, 2020 1:43pm
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - January Preview 
Overview
Forecasts
- According to Bloomberg, there's a very wide range of estimates. From 70K to about 225K. Within that range, most estimates fall between 130K and 190K. While the average estimate is 157K, 170K is the most popular forecast.
- Economists polled by Reuters are showing a range from 77K to 225K. Within that range more economists think 160K will be the outcome. Reuters is showing far more uncertainty about the data tomorrow.
Recent impacts (gold, eur/usd, usd/jpy)
Last month ADP missed (67K vs 137K expected).
Overview
Last month this data had more impact than usual after the big miss. Traders can expect gold to move higher on a lower than expected number, accompanied by a weaker dollar. If the number beats market expectations, then gold should fall while the dollar moves higher.
ADP is never a great data release to trade because there's usually limited follow-through on any initial reaction. Traders quickly shift their attention to Friday's US employment data and ADP is quickly forgotten. It is however, important to be cognizant of the data release so that you can be aware of what's currently moving the markets. I'd expect the volatility related to the ADP to be over rather quickly.
Good luck out there!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #380
- Jan 8, 2020 8:21am Jan 8, 2020 8:21am
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%