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  • #53,681
  • Oct 30, 2019 7:13am Oct 30, 2019 7:13am
Quoting notyetthere
back into long at 1490.25
flat at 1494
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,682
  • Oct 30, 2019 7:59am Oct 30, 2019 7:59am
Quoting notyetthere
{quote} flat at 1494

agree 1495 is important resistance so far 1446 or 1545 both possible. but under 1508 low is seems realistic
  • #53,683
  • Oct 30, 2019 8:16am Oct 30, 2019 8:16am
shorted 1492.4 and covered at 1489.80, looking for long now.
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,684
  • Oct 30, 2019 10:55am Oct 30, 2019 10:55am
long 1494.20
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,685
  • Oct 30, 2019 10:58am Oct 30, 2019 10:58am
Quoting notyetthere
long 1494.20
sell and buy?
belive you
  • #53,686
  • Oct 30, 2019 11:09am Oct 30, 2019 11:09am
yeah, got somewhat lucky there with my short. It's still in an uptrend on the 15M.
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,687
  • Oct 30, 2019 12:35pm Oct 30, 2019 12:35pm
Quoting notyetthere
long 1494.20
got out at 1494.60; normallly I would keep this but the FED is getting too nearby ...
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,688
  • Oct 30, 2019 1:07pm Oct 30, 2019 1:07pm
FED seems hawkish
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #53,689
  • Oct 30, 2019 2:06pm Oct 30, 2019 2:06pm
long 1483.30 on bullish enguler on teh 15M chart
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #53,690
  • Oct 30, 2019 4:36pm Oct 30, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting tush1822
{quote} Its not only the rate cut matters. When Fed changes the rate the main important thing is to understand why it did so. There are two important things- Fed's economic outlook and future rate projection. As it is widely accepted in macro-economy that its not only interest rate matters, its the rate at which the interest rates are changing. For instance, the first interest rate cut by 0.25 to 2.25% in July was mainly because of Trumph's influence on FOMC. The statement from FOMC was hawkish means there was no data to show economic slowdown....
Same story again, Action by FOMC is dovish = reduced interest rates by 0.25 points . And the statement was mixed and toward hawkish - state strong consumer confidence, strong labour market but there are risks ahead.
The effect= initially gold down to 1481 from 1490. And again recovered to 1495.
Now its open for all technical analysis!!!!
  • #53,691
  • Oct 30, 2019 4:38pm Oct 30, 2019 4:38pm
Quoting farukh
FED seems hawkish
Yes, it was moderately Hawkish and towards mixed, for every statement of good job market, he was telling about the risk and incoming data dependent future action.
  • #53,692
  • Oct 30, 2019 4:39pm Oct 30, 2019 4:39pm
Quoting farukh
FED seems hawkish
Initially I thought so too, but Powell said they would need to see a significant rise in inflation before hiking. That may never happen so dovish from that angle. Overall I think it was more or less inline with market expectations.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #53,693
  • Oct 30, 2019 4:42pm Oct 30, 2019 4:42pm
Quoting tush1822
{quote} Same story again, Action by FOMC is dovish = reduced interest rates by 0.25 points . And the statement was mixed and toward hawkish - state strong consumer confidence, strong labour market but there are risks ahead. The effect= initially gold down to 1481 from 1490. And again recovered to 1495. Now its open for all technical analysis!!!!
The whole episode of FOMC has surely validated the breakout of the top trend line. The breakout range was ( 1473-1484)
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  • #53,694
  • Oct 30, 2019 4:49pm Oct 30, 2019 4:49pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Initially I thought so too, but Powell said they would need to see a significant rise in inflation before hiking. That may never happen so dovish from that angle. Overall I think it was more or less inline with market expectations.
Looks like he is also waiting for US CHINA Trade deal to conclude so that he can take some clear stand!!!
  • #53,695
  • Oct 30, 2019 6:15pm Oct 30, 2019 6:15pm
Bulls take control right now.
  • #53,696
  • Oct 30, 2019 6:22pm Oct 30, 2019 6:22pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Initially I thought so too, but Powell said they would need to see a significant rise in inflation before hiking. That may never happen so dovish from that angle. Overall I think it was more or less inline with market expectations.
Quoting tush1822
{quote} Yes, it was moderately Hawkish and towards mixed, for every statement of good job market, he was telling about the risk and incoming data dependent future action.
Oh it was hawkish. The Fed downplays their hawkishness because of the role the wealth-effect plays in the economy. They've always walked on egg shells not to upset the domestic stock market. Powell said from the beginning it's about a mid-cycle adjustment. The historical definition of a mid-cycle adjustment is three rate cuts in a row. That's it. They're done. The data doesn't justify more rate cuts either. He just couldn't come out and be so blunt about it or the stock market participants would have soiled their drawers and gone into panic-mode.

Over the next few days, or more likely next week, I expect Fed members to carry a more hawkish tone. Look for Rosengren and George especially. They've been against the easing as dissenters.

It was surprising to see the reversal during Powell's testimony, I agree. Some of that had to do with hints at bond purchasing through Q2 of next year and signaling the Fed is going to be providing liquidity not just on a short-term horizon. The repo markets was an area that I thought would've gotten more discussion because that's ultimately where the QE is going to at least begin. The Fed is already expanding their balance sheet again.

As far as how this impacts gold, I still say gold has limited downside risk because of all the other uncertainty, especially surrounding trade. We could see some drops on the USD/Gold inverse relationship, but ultimately the slowdown is global and as economies of major countries like China and Germany slow down, gold appreciates.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #53,697
  • Oct 30, 2019 6:25pm Oct 30, 2019 6:25pm
Quoting tush1822
{quote} The whole episode of FOMC has surely validated the breakout of the top trend line. The breakout range was ( 1473-1484) {image} {image}
I find myself agreeing with you a lot! When the day comes and we disagree we should really hash it out because one of us might not be seeing something. Anyways, you are right, gold popped right back up after tanking on the rate statement.

In addition to the trend line you drew, what I noticed was it came back into the shorter term upward trend that it's been in as gold prices recover from over extended losses related to Brexit chaos.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #53,698
  • Oct 30, 2019 6:29pm Oct 30, 2019 6:29pm
Don't underestimate the significance of the $1500 handle (relating to the CME GC front-month). I'm looking for gold to break this level tonight after Asia opens and get long gold again. As long as it clearly breaks, the risk-reward is there to make that trade IMO.

It may not break above. It's strong resistance when it's higher than prices and pretty strong support when lower. But take a look at when it does break through that level. Gold prices either rally or sell off on a break above or below that $1500 level. At least this has been the case recently.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #53,699
  • Oct 30, 2019 6:43pm Oct 30, 2019 6:43pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} {quote} Oh it was hawkish. The Fed downplays their hawkishness because of the role the wealth-effect plays in the economy. They've always walked on egg shells not to upset the domestic stock market. Powell said from the beginning it's about a mid-cycle adjustment. The historical definition of a mid-cycle adjustment is three rate cuts in a row. That's it. They're done. The data doesn't justify more rate cuts either. He just couldn't come out and be so blunt about it or the stock market participants would have soiled their drawers and gone...
The Fed is probably making a mistake by believing only a mid-cycle adjustment is needed.
Attached Image

The image above shows what we might expect from manufacturing in the near future. That sure doesn't look mid-cycle to me... More importantly, the labor market has weakened materially with NFP coming in softer and weekly claims no longer going down. Let's be honest though, at 3.5% unemployment there's nowhere to go but up. Housing has had a little resurgence lately, but its best days are behind it. Then we've got the inverted YC, the inverted Eurodollar futures curve, higher equity volatility, etc etc etc. Its the end of the cycle and the Fed just doesn't realize it yet.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #53,700
  • Oct 30, 2019 7:10pm Oct 30, 2019 7:10pm
USDX down and down by supply and demand (wolf waves) the gold will reach 1530.
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