Disliked{quote} I actually like renko charts a lot for system building. They're great for trend following since they won't result in bad trades during trendless periods.Ignored
They help you ignore daily noise and gives you a clear view.
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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
- #52,904
- Sep 25, 2019 11:49pm Sep 25, 2019 11:49pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #52,907
- Sep 26, 2019 1:55am Sep 26, 2019 1:55am
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #52,909
- Sep 26, 2019 2:55am Sep 26, 2019 2:55am
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #52,911
- Sep 26, 2019 5:04am Sep 26, 2019 5:04am
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #52,912
- Sep 26, 2019 5:29am Sep 26, 2019 5:29am
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
Anyone in this group keep an eye on Daily inventories at LME or CME. This is something I never introduced in my trading plan. Any thoughts and useful insight will help!!
- LME inventories has the potential for impact, and possibly SHFE inventories to a lesser extent. It's uncommon that it's a big impact.
- The impact the inventory data has affects spot prices more than it does the futures prices.
- Precious metals really aren't driven by supply fluctuations. It's base metals that would be in focus with inventory data (due to utility, demand, consumption, etc)
- I conducted extensive research into the SHFE and LME inventory data releases and potential impacts. There wasn't any consistent impact on futures prices.
This was a very good read:
- The most important takeaway was this excerpt:
This is long but ultimately what made me respect the data as having potential impact:
- This one shined some light on the LME/SHFE relationship and why we get big moves at the SHFE open.
- This quote is important to understand how the Chinese attempt to arb physicals when spreads between physical and futures tighten. Basically, if spot ever exceeds futures (the futures price after funding and storage costs are removed) Chinese traders are in the best position to exploit that inefficiency. It has to do with the LME settlement prices versus the SHFE playing a more important role in Copper. I wish I could say I fully understood it. Also, somehow the HIBOR is involved. Here's a good quote from the pdf: "The spread almost never exceeds 0, as expected; otherwise this would represent an arbitrage opportunity, obtained by purchasing the spot asset and simultaneously selling a 3 month future, paying funding and storage costs for 3 months, and delivering the metal to the futures counterparty after 3 months."
The other pdf that I found informative was this one:
At a certain point I stopped trying to wrap my head around it because it wasn't a trade I could partake in. Additionally, it didn't impact my trading enough to warrant investing the time. Although I am all ears if anybody has insight on this stuff.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #52,913
- Sep 26, 2019 5:37am Sep 26, 2019 5:37am
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #52,915
- Sep 26, 2019 6:42am Sep 26, 2019 6:42am
What time does Donald Trump wake up? I wanna set my my alarm clock accordingly, need to be up when he wakes up....bit subdued again this morning
- #52,916
- Sep 26, 2019 6:50am Sep 26, 2019 6:50am
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
{quote} Good idea!!1 in my early days of trading , I used to check traffic on gmap around CME in Chicago and correlated it to PA!!!!
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
So, what the chart of Gold does tell us? (I use data from Oanda, futures market charts are quite same).
On the first view, the eye catches up-trend wave (blue lines). But let's take into consideration volume and its relation with price action.
1) On 13-15/August, we had a spike of volume (red vertical zone). I always stick to high spikes of volume in order to for the story from chart. I plot the red horizontal line at the high of those days - 1535. Since that time we had several attempts to overcome 1535 level.
2) The first attempt. Volume is massive, close on the low - not very optimistic. It is more bearish sign revealing the heavy supply above 1535 level.
3) Next attempt. Close on the highs, but we have only tiny penetration of the previous high #2. Low volume represents the lack of sellers.
4) Next day is big red down bar. There is an important thing - volume. It increases on down bar. You have no bar like this on the chart. 05/Sept was a day when Sellers did appear - they gained a big result actually. This is Bearish change of the character. Supply impulse was too powerful to push price toward the low line of the up-wave channel. On those levels, market has found a bullish party, but...
5) ...after 3 green up-days (20-24/Sept), we got wide down bar (yesterday). It fast erased the progress of previous up-bar and moreover - it formed another attempt to breakout above 1535 level.
So, price is approaching back down to support. The unwillingness of market to bounce from support line - a sign of weakness.
Taking into consideration mentioned above facts, we can build the following opinion. Definitely, 1535 is powerful resistance. It was started by the 13-15/August extra-high-volume days. So, current Range 1478-1535 could be interpreted as the Distribution Range. If price refuses to breakout on higher levels, it should be interested in breakdown.
BTW, Some analysts can find Head & Shoulder (SHS) pattern here. Let it be the confirmation of the Distribution opinion.
Oleg Alexandrov, market analyst. Find me in Google