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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #52,641
  • Sep 11, 2019 3:45pm Sep 11, 2019 3:45pm
H1 head and shoulder pattern playing out, but the psych level proving to much for bulls to overcome today.
Some levels to the upside were broken but momentum failed to see us break and close above 1500, as such,retest of support not entirely out the picture.


Price is currently around the h4 sell zone, firther support retests of lower handles, but the rejection as per the h4 chart from key support is clearly visible, those long tailed candles are a positive sign fir bulls, so given a daily higher close, intra day numbers should push intra day support higher and attract a bid from higher support levels, to fully complete the inverted HnS pattern and continue our relief rally...


See you all in a couple of hours.


Trade Safe
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  • #52,642
  • Sep 11, 2019 4:31pm Sep 11, 2019 4:31pm
As things Stand
H1 in the process of flipping bullish and forming a buy zone, as such its neutral.
H4 PA currently in sell zone, testing lower band of sell zone...

H4 sell zone:1497.85 - 1505.1


Should the h1 structure play it, target would be complete at 1505/6( handle was key support when price was coming down).

Bulls need to see h4 hold onto that 200 ema on a closing basis....

Very Important to wait for levels and monitor PA at said levels

Intra day levels
Upside
1516,31
1507.11
1503.05
1498.2


Downside
1493.07
1487.12
1484.98
1479.01

1472(Extension)
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  • #52,643
  • Sep 11, 2019 4:55pm Sep 11, 2019 4:55pm
Today we are about to open up with gold higher than $1500. It'll be interesting to see if it can stay above that level. Even though the ECB event tomorrow will take center stage and ultimately decide the direction, there is something interesting that took place throughout yesterday's trading day.

Every time gold rallied, it was on some pretty high volume. It's not surprising. I interpret it as investors/traders buying up gold at these lower levels, relative to where gold prices might be headed.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #52,644
  • Sep 11, 2019 6:59pm Sep 11, 2019 6:59pm
This news rocked gold We have agreed to move the increased tariffs from Oct 1st to Oct 15th

Gold hasn't wanted to break that $1500 level. It's been testing. Risk on sentiment is settling in and it could move lower.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #52,645
  • Sep 11, 2019 7:00pm Sep 11, 2019 7:00pm
Good Day Ya'll... PA not happy with my order block - she better get over it and drop♥

Daily Target: 1477.3x, unless something funny like MM happens to block it.
H4 Target : 1481.1x
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We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #52,646
  • Sep 11, 2019 7:08pm Sep 11, 2019 7:08pm
Gold has tried to break the $1500 support four times since the news. If it breaks it could go.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #52,647
  • Sep 11, 2019 7:33pm Sep 11, 2019 7:33pm
It broke $1500. Hang on! We might be in for a ride!
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #52,648
  • Sep 11, 2019 7:58pm Sep 11, 2019 7:58pm
Quoting EventsTrader
It broke $1500. Hang on! We might be in for a ride! {image}
I'm on board already, 1493
From tiny pips mighty oaks grow
  • #52,649
  • Sep 11, 2019 9:39pm Sep 11, 2019 9:39pm
Quoting MzansiObi
H1 head and shoulder pattern playing out, but the psych level proving to much for bulls to overcome today. Some levels to the upside were broken but momentum failed to see us break and close above 1500, as such,retest of support not entirely out the picture. Price is currently around the h4 sell zone, firther support retests of lower handles, but the rejection as per the h4 chart from key support is clearly visible, those long tailed candles are a positive sign fir bulls, so given a daily higher close, intra day numbers should push intra day support...
Current h4 candle showed rejection from key support area 1488 and expecting to form a pin bar that will be good sign for bulls.
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #52,650
  • Sep 11, 2019 10:16pm Sep 11, 2019 10:16pm
Quoting farukh
{quote} Current h4 candle showed rejection from key support area 1488 and expecting to form a pin bar that will be good sign for bulls.
Definately, and if it can close above 1493 even better, either way lets see, it has already been rejected at 1498 and as mentioned yesterday, if the volume is there the bulls will struggle a little 1487.89 also provided a bounce and now we are back at 1493, so its almost done full circle between levels to the upside and levels to the downside...H1 is flat at the moment......so we will have to take guidance on the m15 and h4 200 EMA's now.......
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  • #52,651
  • Sep 12, 2019 2:23am Sep 12, 2019 2:23am
Quoting tush1822
{quote} anything below 1493 is best buy for rest of the week !!!
at H1 I can see perfect HnS reversal, but volume is relatively low. I can see three scenarios.
1. ECB event I guess will not affect that much.
2. US CPI weak/expected - reversal at 1500 will be validated.
3. US CPI above expectations- Gold will correct further ro 1475 range.
  • #52,652
  • Sep 12, 2019 2:33am Sep 12, 2019 2:33am
Any thoughts on the ECB Meeting and how it could impact gold?

If stimulus is delivered to market expectations, gold could decline. However that would come with some pretty dire projections about future growth, which would support gold. I'm not quite sure what to expect. The press conference usually has more impact to gold than the statement. I'd wait until the press conference before taking a position. The trend might not emerge until after Draghi gets going.

I did a pretty lengthy preview but I'm as ready as I'm going to be. Check it out here: ECB Meeting - September Preview

Good luck guys!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #52,653
  • Sep 12, 2019 2:39am Sep 12, 2019 2:39am
Quoting EventsTrader
Any thoughts on the ECB Meeting and how it could impact gold? If stimulus is delivered to market expectations, gold could decline. However that would come with some pretty dire projections about future growth, which would support gold. I'm not quite sure what to expect. The press conference usually has more impact to gold than the statement. I'd wait until the press conference before taking a position. The trend might not emerge until after Draghi gets going. I did a pretty lengthy preview but I'm as ready as I'm going to be. Check it out here:...
i was trying dig my old notes of effect of ECB on gold, i didnt find any, but I may be wrong this time. The reason being stimulus announcement means effectively start of negative rates. Let see!!
  • #52,654
  • Sep 12, 2019 2:54am Sep 12, 2019 2:54am
Quoting tush1822
{quote} at H1 I can see perfect HnS reversal, but volume is relatively low. I can see three scenarios. 1. ECB event I guess will not affect that much. 2. US CPI weak/expected - reversal at 1500 will be validated. 3. US CPI above expectations- Gold will correct further ro 1475 range.
That H1 inverted Head and Shoulders pattern has played out and just missed the projected level at 1505,
Intra day wise still have another two levels to the upside to go, that 1507.23 then 1516 handle.....
Am anticipating some bull exhaustion and range trading for a bit, every hourly close above 1501.02(weekly support level) will keep bulls in the game.
immediate support becomes 1498.21 handle now.......
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  • #52,655
  • Sep 12, 2019 3:03am Sep 12, 2019 3:03am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} That H1 inverted Head and Shoulders pattern has played out and just missed the projected level at 1505, Intra day wise still have another two levels to the upside to go, that 1507.23 then 1516 handle..... Am anticipating some bull exhaustion and range trading for a bit, every hourly close above 1501.02(weekly support level) will keep bulls in the game. immediate support becomes 1498.21 handle now.......
You are right mate. I am also expecting a huge level of selling at CME today as soon as it will reach to high levels immediately after CPI release. Only thing I am lagging is marking key levels. Not getting time to seat in front of computer!!
  • #52,656
  • Sep 12, 2019 3:14am Sep 12, 2019 3:14am
Quoting tush1822
{quote} You are right mate. I am also expecting a huge level of selling at CME today as soon as it will reach to high levels immediately after CPI release. Only thing I am lagging is marking key levels. Not getting time to seat in front of computer!!
Make some Tush....always appreciate and value others inputs
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #52,657
  • Sep 12, 2019 3:35am Sep 12, 2019 3:35am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} That H1 inverted Head and Shoulders pattern has played out and just missed the projected level at 1505, Intra day wise still have another two levels to the upside to go, that 1507.23 then 1516 handle..... Am anticipating some bull exhaustion and range trading for a bit, every hourly close above 1501.02(weekly support level) will keep bulls in the game. immediate support becomes 1498.21 handle now.......
I am anticipating 1511-1515, sma50 is meeting with sma150. If we get any reversal pattern there and sma50 cross down sma150, then we may again go down. Strong breakout above this level will add fuel to bulls.

I am long from 1491, trailing with sl 1496
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #52,658
  • Sep 12, 2019 4:02am Sep 12, 2019 4:02am
Hello everyone I'm waiting for a possible pulback in this candle of H4 to reentry buying imo.
maybe 1530 today or more
  • #52,659
  • Sep 12, 2019 4:45am Sep 12, 2019 4:45am
Quoting auricforecas
The switch in the next 24-48h might be crazy... All people watching for the almighty ECB (with derived potential FED moves out of it...) tomorrow... and than the afterparty on Friday... US Retail sale... Will be out of the market for the next two days, that's for sure... Can't afford to take that chance... For Titans to play monopoly with peoples money, spikes style.. no tnx... I don't throw darts at a board... I believe there are MASSIVE positions prepared... loaded and ready to go... up to 100B+... by player... So let it role.. BTW Shorting...
hope you also exited gold short in time... not bad down move, specially with leverage, before the rise..
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #52,660
  • Sep 12, 2019 5:05am Sep 12, 2019 5:05am
Quoting farukh
{quote} I am anticipating 1511-1515, sma50 is meeting with sma150. If we get any reversal pattern there and sma50 cross down sma150, then we may again go down. Strong breakout above this level will add fuel to bulls. I am long from 1491, trailing with sl 1496
Hey Farukh,

Agreed, there is still plenty of room to the upside in the long run....theres a weekly picot at 1521.8, but the bounce from the daily bull area has been somewhat subdued this week. I see the H1 HnS target has produced abit of a relief.....lets see if it dips low enough to warrant buying dips.....
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