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Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures

Quoting DonPato
{quote} Amen brother I'm trying to be more adaptive, but even that is an art form. "Adapt" too soon and you still lose especially when the market is volatile...but wasn't so just a few seconds ago...case in point, this morning in futures. Enter, market moves my way and comes to 66% of my target. I move stop to BE, and WHAM!! A crazy Ivan takes out my stop, then pauses and turns to take (what would've been) my target. Its almost as if the market was waiting to "sucker" me in to moving my stop and then SAW what I did. I understand this...
I had a dialogue a while back with another gentle-brother. And I was telling him at times like these I prefer closing half the position and hen adjusting the stops....and the main reason was for the sudden swings Suh as what happened to you this morning.....case I'm point..... Look, we can't remove all the risk, but we sure can try mitigate as much of it as possible......
4+1(Gold) Return This Month: 9.3%
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} I had a dialogue a while back with another gentle-brother. And I was telling him at times like these I prefer closing half the position and hen adjusting the stops....and the main reason was for the sudden swings Suh as what happened to you this morning.....case I'm point..... Look, we can't remove all the risk, but we sure can try mitigate as much of it as possible......
I did some studies on that very thing a few years ago...closing 1/2 position while keeping another half running. I had some interesting results. I'll have to dig it up again in the recesses of my archives...but the main thrust was this

Out of 100 actual trades (the way I trade) I calculated the profit if taken at various points 1xR, 2xR, 3xR...etc. All the way to 10xR. (one trade actually did go that far). The resulting distribution was your typical bell curve right around 2.6-2.8 xR. However there was another distribution curve at 5xR...a smaller one, but there none-the-less.

So then I calculated what the profit would be if I took ALL profits at 2.6xR or if I took 1/2 profit off at 2.6xR and waited until 5xR for a hard limit. Again, I don't have those studies in front of me now but the bottom line was that 2.6xR was the "sweet spot" and that by only taking 1/2 the profits at that point, I reduced the total gain by about 50%...it was a very significant number.

This, of course was based on how I trade and I used actual live data from my trading journal. Final conclusion: it is more profitable to set a hard limit at the "sweet spot" and move the stop up to BE once price advances 60%-70% of the way to my target. While disappointing and difficult to watch...I still have to keep in mind it is more profitable and trust in my method...which at times (as I said above) is difficult...but it keeps the bank account moving in the right direction.
Do more of that which succeeds and less of that which does not - Dennis Gar
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I did some studies on that very thing a few years ago...closing 1/2 position while keeping another half running. I had some interesting results. I'll have to dig it up again in the recesses of my archives...but the main thrust was this Out of 100 actual trades (the way I trade) I calculated the profit if taken at various points 1xR, 2xR, 3xR...etc. All the way to 10xR. (one trade actually did go that far). The resulting distribution was your typical bell curve right around 2.6-2.8 xR. However there was another distribution curve at 5xR...a...
Very true.....it becomes a question of the method and manner in which one approaches the markets.


I did something similar with regards to taking partial profits and letting the rest run.
There was and still is aassive difference in results depending on the type of trading and the instrument being traded together with the time frames in which one trades.


But the one consistent factor in that field of inconsistencies was that profit was still made.
The market is constantly changing and as such I changed my line of thought from first trying to make a profit (or even a massive one at that) my first outlook becomes trying to mitigate my risk. Then the profit follows......

It's all a mix and match really.....and comfort level weighs heavily on this at the end of the day.....
4+1(Gold) Return This Month: 9.3%
Quoting MzansiObi
...my first outlook becomes trying to mitigate my risk. Then the profit follows......
I whole heartedly agree!! First priority is to limit the amount exposed to risk...this comes in using stops, and position sizing. For me the risk is a constant in trading. There is ALWAYS the risk that price will turn and move against your position. (as evidenced today). However how much of my account or my trade I expose to that risk is completely under my control.

As well, I have developed a "rule" (my rule) that if my position moves my direction up to 60% or 70% of the distance (in pips (pts)). I will, as a hard rule, move the stop to at least BE or a little better if I can find a good spot. This ensures, that even if price misses my target, I still at least don't lose...but again, there are those days...timing this move (to BE or better) is just as important as entering or exiting IMHO. I often find myself waiting for the "FU stop" to finished before I move my stop...which adds yet another element of risk...like you said, Its all a balancing act.
Do more of that which succeeds and less of that which does not - Dennis Gar
So silver recently had a 'golden cross' where the 50 dma crossed above the 200 dma.

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This would seem like a bullish development, but check out this study I found:

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(source)

Surprisingly, silver hasn't performed well on average after a golden cross. Full disclosure, I don't think MA crosses are particularly meaningful but thought this was interesting none-the-less.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
Quoting Beyfor
{image} {image}
Market performed exactly as anticipated

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Quoting Beyfor
{quote} Market performed exactly as anticipated {image} {image} {image}
Wow, so we should be expecting some more downward movement right? These charts are so valuable, normally I only trade gold but I opened a silver position in the past week and have been struggling to wrap my mind around managing it.
careful not to step in a pile of it
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I was reading an interesting article about how housing leads treasuries. It was published on October 29th, 2018 and I thought I'd share this image because it's remarkable how spot on it has been:

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They really nailed it with the date ranges they provided. The stars seem to be aligning for a recession.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
I thought I’d share this chart I came across:

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This chart demonstrates there has been a history of economic calamities that occur when US interest rates have been above the rest of the developed world. This is probably because the dollar is the worlds reserve currency and problems occur when the interest rate is too high for the rest of the world.

https://www.themacrotourist.com/post.../24/sidelines/
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
Manufacturing hasn't been doing well lately, but I just came across a chart that suggests it may pick up soon:

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This bodes well for industrial metals like copper.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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Maintain the same outlook

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  • Post #155
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  • Last Post: Oct 25, 2019 11:31am Oct 25, 2019 11:31am
Maintain the same outlook

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