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Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures

  • #121
  • Jul 9, 2019 11:13pm Jul 9, 2019 11:13pm
Quoting bigtx
{quote} Seems like that rings true with your Daily chart posted previously. You don't think this resistance will hold?
I'm pretty sure it will hold for awhile longer, we need a spark in the markets before it breaks and the Fed is not likely to be the one to provide one right now. When gold does break though the move will probably be significant.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #122
  • Jul 10, 2019 2:27am Jul 10, 2019 2:27am
Quoting bigtx
{quote} Seems like that rings true with your Daily chart posted previously. You don't think this resistance will hold?
I think resistance won't hold. If you look at the weekly chart,you see a major breakout that means that more highs to come. what i posted yesterday is alt1 count, alt2 which i might post later is more agressive.

Daily EW Count ALT 1

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Weekly Chart
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  • #123
  • Jul 10, 2019 2:33am Jul 10, 2019 2:33am
Quoting Beyfor
{quote} I think resistance won't hold. If you look at the weekly chart,you see a major breakout that means that more highs to come. what i post yesterday is alt1 count, alt2 which i might post later is more agressive. Daily ALT 1 EW Count {image} Weekly Chart {image}
Hey bud, There is a lot of buying appetite around that 1380/81 handle.But I'm looking at anything between 1370 and 1390 as a possible springboard for the pair to rally on, break and close below that on daily basis will invalidate my further bullishness outlook.....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #124
  • Jul 10, 2019 3:12am Jul 10, 2019 3:12am
NYMEX Copper

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  • #125
  • Jul 10, 2019 9:11am Jul 10, 2019 9:11am
Looking at Silver market...everything across the board has gotten volatile with the Fed Chair's testimony before the "clown show" we call the US Congress. Most the market market is behaving this way but of note here is that while prices did rise this rise was halted in its tracks in the same area where selling occurred last week at the NFP. Currently more selling is underway, but the selling (at this point) appears weak. I'll have to check this again at the end of the day.
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  • #126
  • Jul 10, 2019 3:42pm Jul 10, 2019 3:42pm
Quoting DonPato
while prices did rise this rise was halted in its tracks in the same area where selling occurred last week at the NFP.
Looks like Gold hitting a similar wall today. That 1417 mark was a wall leading up to NFP as well if I recall.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #127
  • Jul 10, 2019 7:20pm Jul 10, 2019 7:20pm
Wow, some bullish sentiment in here and FOMC may stoke the flames! Buckle up people, exciting times!
  • #128
  • Jul 11, 2019 8:51am Jul 11, 2019 8:51am
Quoting bigtx
Buckle up people, exciting times!
And Powell testifying at 10:00 am EST. Exciting indeed.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #129
  • Jul 11, 2019 10:25am Jul 11, 2019 10:25am
Silver not looking much better than Gold at the moment. I'm looking for one more push (solid push) down but it doesn't look like I'm going to get it this month. And thus we begin the summer doldrums.
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  • #130
  • Jul 15, 2019 4:11pm Jul 15, 2019 4:11pm
Quoting DonPato
. And thus we begin the summer doldrums. {image}
At least I finally have time to play catch up! During this last month or so, I felt like I didn't understand what the market was doing! Now it's starting to make sense to me again.
  • #131
  • Jul 15, 2019 4:30pm Jul 15, 2019 4:30pm
Quoting bigtx
...it's starting to make sense to me again.
I wish you the best of luck. Every time I think I understand the market...I get a new lesson when the market hands me my head.
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  • #132
  • Jul 17, 2019 3:51pm Jul 17, 2019 3:51pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I wish you the best of luck. Every time I think I understand the market...I get a new lesson when the market hands me my head.
Let me clarify... I did not mean to imply that I understand it or have mastered it. It has kicked my ass enough times for me to know that, and will again for sure. I just had been so confused with the market direction, which means I stay on the sideline. I caught up to a point where I can now at least rationalize what is happening, which means I become active again. By the time I catch up, surely I will have to chase it down again.

Appreciate your point, and keeping me humble!
  • #133
  • Jul 17, 2019 7:38pm Jul 17, 2019 7:38pm
Quoting bigtx
... I caught up to a point where I can now at least rationalize what is happening, which means I become active again. By the time I catch up, surely I will have to chase it down again. ...
I agree... understanding what the market is doing in the moment of "right now" and then seeing what price did to get to this moment (of now) gives consistent clues to the status of how the order flow is effecting price.

Once you can see this clearly...(as clearly as possible)... the it becomes more accurate to anticipate changes in the order flow that will have a profound effect on future price.

This allows a greater accuracy in you execution...both entry AND exit. It takes a bit of time to see it but once you do you cannot UNsee it.
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  • #134
  • Jul 18, 2019 9:34am Jul 18, 2019 9:34am
Quoting bigtx
At least I finally have time to play catch up! During this last month or so, I felt like I didn't understand what the market was doing! Now it's starting to make sense to me again.
Glad it is for someone. From day to day I feel like the sentiment is swinging dramatically. I feel like I am just tuning out the news and watching the charts for some opportunities. Probably not smart to completely ignore (and I am not really completely tuned out )
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #135
  • Jul 18, 2019 4:11pm Jul 18, 2019 4:11pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I agree... understanding what the market is doing in the moment of "right now" and then seeing what price did to get to this moment (of now) gives consistent clues to the status of how the order flow is effecting price. Once you can see this clearly...(as clearly as possible)... the it becomes more accurate to anticipate changes in the order flow that will have a profound effect on future price. This allows a greater accuracy in you execution...both entry AND exit. It takes a bit of time to see it but once you do you cannot UNsee it.
Well said!I appreciate the wisdom
  • #136
  • Jul 24, 2019 9:07pm Jul 24, 2019 9:07pm
Want to hear a really bullish theory I've been tossing around for gold?

So the next global recession is probably 12 months away. CBs will lower rates, but the lower bound is going to be maybe -1%. So to provide additional accommodation they'll resort to QE and buy bonds. But are there enough bonds to buy? With fiscal stimulus, hopefully but let's not count on it. Even if there are enough bonds to buy, are CBs going to buy negative yielding bonds? So with bonds too there's going to be some sort of limit on how much can be purchased. What do they do when that limit is hit?

A lot of people are trying to figure this out now. Buying equities is an obvious choice and something the BOJ and SNB have already done so there's a good chance other CBs will follow. That's my base case. What isn't my base case, but could potentially happen, is stepping up purchases of precious metals. That may be a more palatable choice for some banks, particularly emerging market CBs, since their currency would be backed by a hard asset. If that happens its anyone's guess how high gold goes.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #137
  • Jul 24, 2019 10:49pm Jul 24, 2019 10:49pm
Quoting Ef5
Want to hear a really bullish theory I've been tossing around for gold? So the next global recession is probably 12 months away. CBs will lower rates, but the lower bound is going to be maybe -1%. So to provide additional accommodation they'll resort to QE and buy bonds. But are there enough bonds to buy? With fiscal stimulus, hopefully but let's not count on it. Even if there are enough bonds to buy, are CBs going to buy negative yielding bonds? So with bonds too there's going to be some sort of limit on how much can be purchased. What do they...
There were theories floating around that ECB will buy stock ETFs next, replicating BOJ. The main debate will how will they classify stocks as they have 26 countries to boot!
  • #138
  • Jul 29, 2019 3:10am Jul 29, 2019 3:10am
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  • #139
  • Jul 29, 2019 5:02am Jul 29, 2019 5:02am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I wish you the best of luck. Every time I think I understand the market...I get a new lesson when the market hands me my head.
That's the nature of the dynamic aspect of the market.....and we either adapt or loose buck on it.....constantly learning!
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #140
  • Jul 29, 2019 9:18am Jul 29, 2019 9:18am
Quoting MzansiObi
That's the nature of the dynamic aspect of the market.....and we either adapt or loose buck on it.....constantly learning!
Amen brother

I'm trying to be more adaptive, but even that is an art form. "Adapt" too soon and you still lose especially when the market is volatile...but wasn't so just a few seconds ago...case in point, this morning in futures. Enter, market moves my way and comes to 66% of my target. I move stop to BE, and WHAM!! A crazy Ivan takes out my stop, then pauses and turns to take (what would've been) my target. Its almost as if the market was waiting to "sucker" me in to moving my stop and then SAW what I did.

I understand this is why many out there anthropomorphize the market. Its hard not to think this way.
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