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Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Jun 4, 2019 9:23am Jun 4, 2019 9:23am
  •  Beyfor
  • Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 737 Posts
Gold

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  • Post #2
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  • Jun 4, 2019 9:24am Jun 4, 2019 9:24am
  •  Beyfor
  • Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 737 Posts
Silver

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  • Post #3
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  • Jun 4, 2019 9:25am Jun 4, 2019 9:25am
  •  Beyfor
  • Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 737 Posts
Copper

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  • Post #4
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  • Jun 4, 2019 1:18pm Jun 4, 2019 1:18pm
  •  EF5
  • Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Member | 880 Posts
I really like that seasonal visualization for copper.

Is something like that available for gold, platinum, palladium, and silver? If not, I might have to make one.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • Post #5
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  • Jun 4, 2019 2:07pm Jun 4, 2019 2:07pm
  •  DonPato
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 1,439 Posts
On today's candle I'm showing buying support at the bottom of the day and very weak selling at the top. I am expecting higher highs () tomorrow.
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**Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify
Do more of that which succeeds and less of that which does not - Dennis Gar
  • Post #6
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  • Jun 4, 2019 3:18pm Jun 4, 2019 3:18pm
  •  bigtx
  • | Joined May 2019 | Status: Member | 251 Posts
Quoting DonPato
Disliked
On today's candle I'm showing buying support at the bottom of the day and very weak selling at the top. I am expecting higher highs () tomorrow. {image} **Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify
Ignored
It seems like you, Mr. Beyfor and I are in agreement on silver. I’m buying while it’s beaten down but looking for a rally medium term. Hope we’re right!
1
  • Post #7
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  • Edited at 11:06pm Jun 4, 2019 9:54pm | Edited at 11:06pm
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,471 Posts
Quoting DonPato
Disliked
**Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify
Ignored
Thanks

Quoting Beyfor
Disliked
Copper {image} {image}
Ignored
Beyfor, I think I understand your gold and silver sentiment. It's hard to disagree with that. Are you predicting copper to come down?

I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going. There are so many factors at play right now. We have the tariffs of course, as well as the trade wars. But more important than any of that, at least to Dr. Copper, is the global slowdown.

While concerns still loom over China and how much of a slowdown we'll see, the US seems to be heading into a recession. Yield curve has been trying to invert. But the most surprising thing, gentlemen I present to you this: The market is now pricing in three rate cuts by year's end. Surprising.
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Check out CME FedWatch Tool:
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
Live All Time Return: -9.3%
  • Post #8
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  • Jun 4, 2019 10:46pm Jun 4, 2019 10:46pm
  •  EF5
  • Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Member | 880 Posts
Quoting EventsTrader
Disliked
Are you predicting copper to come down? I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going.
Ignored
For what it's worth, copper is still solidly in contango:
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There's just that one conspicuous drop in 2021.

Quoting EventsTrader
Disliked
But the most surprising thing, gentlemen I present to you this: The market is now pricing in three rate cuts by year's end. Surprising. {image} Check out CME FedWatch Tool: {image}
Ignored
That's amazing. I get why the market is pricing in aggressive Fed easing, but US unemployment at 3.6% and well below NAIRU:

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Cutting soon is probably the prudent move, but it's not difficult to envision a future where they've cut 75bps and suddenly have an inflation problem. The Fed is in a difficult spot.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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  • Post #9
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  • Jun 5, 2019 4:24am Jun 5, 2019 4:24am
  •  Beyfor
  • Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 737 Posts
Quoting EventsTrader
Disliked
{quote} Thanks {quote} Beyfor, I think I understand your gold and silver sentiment. It's hard to disagree with that. Are you predicting copper to come down? I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going. There are so many factors at play right now. We have the tariffs of course, as well as the trade wars. But more important than any of that, at least to Dr. Copper, is the global slowdown. While concerns still loom over China and how much of a slowdown we'll see, the US seems to be heading into a recession. Yield curve has been...
Ignored
I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward.

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  • Post #10
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  • Jun 5, 2019 4:42am Jun 5, 2019 4:42am
  •  EventsTrader
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,471 Posts
Quoting Beyfor
Disliked
{quote} I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward. {image} {image}
Ignored
Thanks for the response Beyfor. Being completely out of copper right now, I'm a little uncertain about what to expect. Good luck in your trade. I hope copper gives you that move lower. Careful on Friday, we could see some fireworks during the release of the US jobs data. Cheers!

You are the honorary recipient of the Dr. Copper cup.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
Live All Time Return: -9.3%
  • Post #11
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  • Jun 5, 2019 10:12am Jun 5, 2019 10:12am
  •  DonPato
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 1,439 Posts
Still buying going on in the Spot Silver Market but...
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buying is weak (at least to this point in the day). More importantly is that significant selling near the lows of the day where absorbed. I have moved my stop up to protect 45 pts. (450 pips).
Do more of that which succeeds and less of that which does not - Dennis Gar
  • Post #12
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  • Jun 5, 2019 11:16am Jun 5, 2019 11:16am
  •  Metallurgy
  • Joined Jun 2019 | Status: Member | 257 Posts
Thanks for the charts! I'm still wrapping my head around precious metals and my punishment is a big whooping in my trades Learning is expensive!
GOLD All Time Return: 113.2%
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 11:53am Jun 5, 2019 11:53am
  •  DonPato
  • Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 1,439 Posts
Quoting Metallurgy
Disliked
...I'm still wrapping my head around precious metals and my punishment is a big whooping in my trades Learning is expensive!
Ignored
It helps me to know that precious metals (like wheat or corn) are commodities. As such are subject to intraday volatility but are governed by larger concerns and economies. Thus intraday volatility is usually due to news (rumor), but has little consequence to the larger perspective. After losing a great deal trying to be profitable intraday trading on Gold, I started using much larger time frames to get a larger perspective on the commodities markets. These have improved my trading on almost all commodities including FX...which is also a commodity when you really think about it.
Do more of that which succeeds and less of that which does not - Dennis Gar
1
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 12:00pm Jun 5, 2019 12:00pm
  •  Metallurgy
  • Joined Jun 2019 | Status: Member | 257 Posts
Quoting DonPato
Disliked
{quote} It helps me to know that precious metals (like wheat or corn) are commodities. As such are subject to intraday volatility but are governed by larger concerns and economies. Thus intraday volatility is usually due to news (rumor), but has little consequence to the larger perspective. After losing a great deal trying to be profitable intraday trading on Gold, I started using much larger time frames to get a larger perspective on the commodities markets. These have improved my trading on almost all commodities including FX...which is also a...
Ignored
That's some good advice Don! I'm usually looking at H1/H4 charts so I think I'm good there. Once I feel comfortable doing the daily intraday trades I will be branching out into more long term positions. That's how I started with Crypto and it has treated me very well, I'm sure I can repeat that success here too
GOLD All Time Return: 113.2%
1
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 3:40pm Jun 5, 2019 3:40pm
  •  SurfsUp
  • Joined May 2019 | Status: Member | 534 Posts
Quoting Beyfor
Disliked
I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward.
Ignored
I agree. With the turmoil, tarriffs, and yield curve threatening to invert, it feels that downturn risks are growing. Expect that to hit copper harder than other metals due to ties with construction. What is your timeline Beyfor on the resumption of downward pressure?
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 5:02pm Jun 5, 2019 5:02pm
  •  auricforecas
  • Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Still a total mystery | 3,575 Posts
I would expect gold to now deflate a little, as EUR/USD.
It is always good to own some gold and cash however
Can you afford to take that chance?
CHEETAH LIVE TE Return This Year: na
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 7:17pm Jun 5, 2019 7:17pm
  •  MzansiObi
  • Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,255 Posts
Quoting Beyfor
Disliked
Gold {image}
Ignored
Always good to see your charts bud,
Informative as always. I'm lookin at buying dip towards 1323.50/1324 handle.
For now price has moved too far too soon from that breakout from descending channel ......
Stay green
4+1(Gold) Return This Month: na
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:09pm Jun 5, 2019 9:09pm
  •  bigtx
  • | Joined May 2019 | Status: Member | 251 Posts
Beyfor, it looks like all your charts here are Daily or high TFs. Can you give me some insight as to how you use lower TFs, if at all?
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 4:49am Jun 6, 2019 4:49am
  •  Beyfor
  • Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 737 Posts
NYMEX Platinum

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  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Jun 6, 2019 5:08am Jun 6, 2019 5:08am
  •  MzansiObi
  • Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,255 Posts
Quoting Beyfor
Disliked
NYMEX Platinum {image}
Ignored
Looking for pullback towards near 50% fib level of yesterday's bear candle. Confluence of resistance towards near that median on the daily chart....
But won't hold onto this for too long.
4+1(Gold) Return This Month: na
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