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Attachments: GoldenEuro Cross (XAU/EUR) GoldenAussi Cross (XAU/AUD)
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GoldenEuro Cross (XAU/EUR) GoldenAussi Cross (XAU/AUD)

  • #21
  • Jul 18, 2019 2:21am Jul 18, 2019 2:21am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I actually did alright trading Gold/EUR. It was the Gold/USD that blew up my demo. I didn't have any live positions in gold or any metals and don't plan to this week. I'm long the USD up until the FOMC rate expectations change. I see upside potential capped for gold, which makes it tough given it's trying to breakout to new highs. I wouldn't be shorting it but my USD position contradicts going long. Very tough market. When I don't know what to do, I do what I do best. Nothing. {image}
Doing nothing is at times a good position to be in....

Why don't you just manage your lot size accordingly....
I'm looking to add on marginally with every swing high....but may just look at adding onto positions these extended/extreme wicks don't bother me if anything they validate bearish interest but in order not to blow accounts,need to manage lot sizes.......I
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #22
  • Jul 18, 2019 1:14pm Jul 18, 2019 1:14pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Doing nothing is at times a good position to be in.... Why don't you just manage your lot size accordingly.... I'm looking to add on marginally with every swing high....but may just look at adding onto positions these extended/extreme wicks don't bother me if anything they validate bearish interest but in order not to blow accounts,need to manage lot sizes.......I
Hehe, yeah or what they call "learn when not to trade" is REAL trading too Or that part of the strategy (in anything) is planing/deciding what NOT TO DO...
This principle kept me profitable in tough years when BIG BANKS were playing the monopoly with peoples lives Do not get me remembered this EU baillout(s)... when they burned/prolonged... just to save their exposure...

At the time there are big(est) expectations what those big will do by the end of the month... I plan to be on nothing side more times than not... unless I see the market flowing, ignoring them, not so at the moment.. so "waiting is" for the next 2 weeks, more or less. Apart of some golden opportunity trades
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #23
  • Jul 23, 2019 8:05am Jul 23, 2019 8:05am
On the sidelines again with this pair, waiting to try get entry from higher handle.....
Will look to see what PA does around 1282/81......

Missed the 4hour buy entry signal....😤
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #24
  • Jul 23, 2019 5:04pm Jul 23, 2019 5:04pm
Quoting MzansiObi
On the sidelines again with this pair, waiting to try get entry from higher handle..... Will look to see what PA does around 1282/81...... Missed the 4hour buy entry signal....
Given how weak the euro has been, if we see gold start to risk, gold/eur might be a better option at this point than gold/usd. I'm on the sidelines too.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #25
  • Jul 23, 2019 11:35pm Jul 23, 2019 11:35pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Given how weak the euro has been, if we see gold start to risk, gold/eur might be a better option at this point than gold/usd. I'm on the sidelines too.
Have just shorted 1274.72. SL is above 1281.
Let's see....will begin trailing as soon as price moves below 1268.…...

Given the EURO weakness, we may just see it spike up a little more into a better sell zone......
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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #26
  • Jul 24, 2019 11:38am Jul 24, 2019 11:38am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Have just shorted 1274.72. SL is above 1281. Let's see....will begin trailing as soon as price moves below 1268.…... Given the EURO weakness, we may just see it spike up a little more into a better sell zone...... {image}
Still holding onto a 1274.72 short.....
Lookin at h1 momentum to continue south bound push
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #27
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:02pm Jul 24, 2019 3:02pm
Just discovered this thread, interesting strategies in here..

When you guys trade these crosses, do you trade the pair direct with a broker or do you execute two orders for each trade (one XAU/USD and one EUR/USD)? If the former, what kind of spread do you eat for both the EUR and AUD cross? Is there a broker that is better than the others?
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #28
  • Jul 25, 2019 8:13am Jul 25, 2019 8:13am
Quoting bulltrap
Just discovered this thread, interesting strategies in here.. When you guys trade these crosses, do you trade the pair direct with a broker or do you execute two orders for each trade (one XAU/USD and one EUR/USD)? If the former, what kind of spread do you eat for both the EUR and AUD cross? Is there a broker that is better than the others?
Hey bud, good of you to join.i execute two seperate orders per currency pair.....
I'm trading with IC markets and XM and haven't had much issues with both of them.....spreads on both ends not too bad.....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #29
  • Jul 25, 2019 8:14am Jul 25, 2019 8:14am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Still holding onto a 1274.72 short..... Lookin at h1 momentum to continue south bound push
Managed to take minimal partial profits on this trade by haven't adjusted the SL yet. Will leave it be still....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #30
  • Jul 25, 2019 8:59am Jul 25, 2019 8:59am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Managed to take minimal partial profits on this trade by haven't adjusted the SL yet. Will leave it be still....
Leaving this trade as is without trailing for now.....will hold onto it for a while....
Buying
1269
Stop on this; 1250.

Trade safe
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #31
  • Jul 25, 2019 10:53pm Jul 25, 2019 10:53pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Leaving this trade as is without trailing for now.....will hold onto it for a while.... Buying 1269 Stop on this; 1250. Trade safe
Have scaled out and taken partial profits on the buy trade.........stops at BE. Will look to add more on deeper pullback......
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #32
  • Jul 27, 2019 5:28am Jul 27, 2019 5:28am
Just a thought and outlook on XAUEUR and its correlation with EURUSD and also XAUUSD.

Have taken the liberty to attach a correlation chart to this post.

Firstly;

  1. a positive correlation shows that a particular pair will tend to move in the same direction as that pair it's being matched with.
  2. A negative correlation shows that the pairs will move in opposing direction... The metric for these ranges from 0-100(like Drake said in one of his songs 0-100 real quick).
  3. So the logic is that the higher the percentage the greater the correlation.

So a pair with +87% will tend to move closely with its matched pair as compared to a pair with a correlation factor of say 20%.
Negatively correlated pairs it's the exact same thing just that the inverse applies. So a pair with -78% correlating factor is most likely to move in the opposing direction as a opposed to a pair with -26%.

It's important that we note that although these stats exists and are highly effective as a measuring matrix, they aren't exactly full proof and are more a high probability tool. Basic principles of supply and demand, volume and order flow per currency pair shouldn't be disregarded.....


From the chart below we see that EURUSD and XAUEUR have a correlating factor of 4.5%. so given our range is from 0-100 it becomes clear that even though they have a positive correlation, movement in one will be quite minimal in the other. We look at XAUEUR and XAUUSD we see they have a correlating factor of 98.1%, meaning there's a higher probability that the two will move in tandem.
Lastly for interest sake, let's look at EURUSD and XAUSD we see they have a 23.9% correlating factor so the correlating factor is greater than that of EU vs XAUEUR.

How does this become useful?
We can clearly see that if we analyse XAUUSD and have a clear directional bias, we can use that to determine the high probability in terms of direction for XAUEUR. So we can look to make money on that pair too.


Personally I'm largely trading the dollar gold Cross but will then have a smaller position size on XAUEUR why smaller? Just incase my XAUUSD analysis is wrong and the market moves opposite of my bias.

The power of correlation allows us to piggy back more profits from other pairs that may be closely correlated with our primary instrument.......hope this helps....

Ps: the correlation stats are for the daily time frame and as such have attached charts for the daily timeframe.
We can delve deeper with these stats to lower timeframesnand their accompanying charts.


Let's keep the dialogue going.....

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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #33
  • Edited 8:29am Jul 27, 2019 8:07am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting MzansiObi
Just a thought and outlook on XAUEUR and its correlation with EURUSD and also XAUUSD. Have taken the liberty to attach a correlation chart to this post. Firstly; a positive correlation shows that a particular pair will tend to move in the same direction as that pair it's being matched with. A negative correlation shows that the pairs will move in opposing direction... The metric for these ranges from 0-100(like Drake said in one of his songs 0-100 real quick). So the logic is that the higher the percentage the greater the correlation. So a...
Tnx for the anaylsis... However, if we look at the last month, that might be representative of the addional 2-3months... Let's see the actual profits that one would make betting on the XAU/EUR vs XAU/USD...

22JUN-27JUL
XAU/EUR (3,75% rise, without leverage...)

22JUN-27JUL
XAU/USD (1,75% rise, without leverage...)

Many things are happening around gold... I think all things are pretty much favourable for gold ("pre-crisis" period, uncertainty, countries pilling up, even talks about gold-standard, etc etc...)... the only thing I would be careful is the stronger dollar, specially against EUR... For the let's say the next 3months.. So assuming that would be right, it was for the last month since I posted the SUMMER trend might locked...
What would you suggest we do to get the most money out of it?

BTW, what timeframe are you correlating? Because there are changes, correlation might be dropping... between some pairs...
https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-marke.../XAUUSD-EURUSD
(havent cross-checked above link, if you have better one, please do post, but it seems reasonable at first sight)

BTW STAT is a very useful tool, but we might be aware of its limitations... the debt crisis of 2007 was just because of that... because stat said... real estate prices are going UP.. it has been that forever, also.. this is how made off made his billions... correlation was strong BUt again, I love the stat tools.. I use logger pro for correlations, linear or curve fits.. error bars etc...


Some other from same source, to get some broader horizon maybe, click the "W1" so that you can see that the correlation changes and can get LOST also

  1. https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-marke.../XAUEUR-EURUSD
  2. https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-marke.../XAUUSD-EURUSD
  3. https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-marke.../XAUEUR-XAUUSD

Also check the H4s...

But yeah, I would just look for the next 2-3m... what would seems best to do... just from pure % expectations... not necessarily (long) term correlation that we see, does change... specially looking the last month... and not to mention changes that are coming... soon

Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #34
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:38am Jul 27, 2019 8:38am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Tnx for the anaylsis... However, if we look at the last month, that might be representative of the addional 2-3months... Let's see the actual profits that one would make betting on the XAU/EUR vs XAU/USD... 22JUN-27JUL XAU/EUR (3,75% rise, without leverage...) 22JUN-27JUL XAU/USD (1,75% rise, without leverage...) Many things are happening around gold... I think all things are pretty much favourable for gold ("pre-crisis" period, uncertainty, countries pilling up, even talks about gold-standard, etc etc...)... the only thing I would be careful...
Hey bud.....
You're correct alot of fundamentals at play globally and it would be amiss of us to discard or downplay their relevance to trading and more specifically Gold and it's related crosses.

I think firstly we need to look at what the initial question posed was.....and that was the relatuonship EU has with XAUEUR. Hence the correlation stats pertaining to the link between the two.

If we look at the charts and more specifically the daily chart we can see that the EU and USD gold crosses more or less mapped similar moves but as you correctly pointed out the one had more volatility and swings than the other..... Primarily I'd attribute that to a weaker euro as compared to the dollar..... As such there may be more spikes and vola in the EU cross, but the general bias/mood of the chart is such that they will move with a sense of cohesion.

I agree with you regarding the correlation factors changing, as a couple of weeks/months ago EU and XAUUSD had a higher correlation factor than they do now....
Given the stronger dollar scenario you're proposing my bet would still be to fixated on analysis on the XAUUSD cross with my normal lot size and trade XAUEU with a reduced lot size. Logic is that since it will be more predisposed to a greater %change my reduced lot size will yield a favourable return while minimising my risk if initial analysis is off.

Ofcourse we also need to account for the risk factor aswell interns of the overall movement of the respective charts.....




These correlation stats are just off of myfxbook;
https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation

Then I look at Finviz for more stats;
https://finviz.com/forex_performance.ashx



What I am particularly interested in is that TE that can look at the overall performance of the cross over a specified period to see if we link the correlation between EU and XAUUSD respectively......
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #35
  • Edited 9:12am Jul 27, 2019 8:45am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Hey bud..... You're correct alot of fundamentals at play globally and it would be amiss of us to discard or downplay their relevance to trading and more specifically Gold and it's related crosses. I think firstly we need to look at what the initial question posed was.....and that was the relatuonship EU has with XAUEUR. Hence the correlation stats pertaining to the link between the two. If we look at the charts and more specifically the daily chart we can see that the EU and USD gold crosses more or less mapped similar moves but as you correctly...
Tnx man, can not help you with a cross-over "inspired" TE atm But I am, as said in another thread... looking/thinking to make/publish some dedicated TE for GOLD only.. maybe XAU/EUR... It might correlate with the time when metalsmine will have a dedicated "Trades" in the upper menu Will see what happens.. I am very interested in the next 2-3weeks.. I am rather confindent I will be able to confirm/reject my eurusd thesis.. and its derivatives in that 2-3w timeframe. Awaiting KEY data/correlation on which my model is based on...

P.S. Since I see you are a little BEYOND the "normal" trading aka chart "figures" or "technics".. and are at least somewhat inspired by depeer analysis, fundamentals, numbers... have you seen my gold-standard possibility thread... https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...9#post12403859 BTW RU as of now, could back 2/3 of their M0 money supply with their GOLD reserves or 1/3 of its M1 money supply... Quite an interesting figure... And they keep piling up!

And MzansiObi, I might say that I am rather impressed with your readiness (and work) to back your reasoning with the numbers/stat...
I also much respect that you, as a (I believe) (potentially.. if not already) good trader or any good statistician/economist... that we must always assume that we might be wrong Your smaller (hedge) position for example... I always assume that too... That is why I love gold per se... for "just in case" scenarios Hedging is very good. In fact Hedge funds that are today have nothing to do with original idea behind it.. Ok just had to share this
P.S. The problems that we might have in a world today is exactly because some people do not believe at all that they might be wrong and they went all-in.. with "others people money" In fact I use a small test in various areas.. asking people how certain they are (in many different areas) that they are right etc... if they say 100%... I know they are totally clueless or dangerous in the longrun...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #36
  • Jul 27, 2019 9:23am Jul 27, 2019 9:23am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Tnx man, can not help you with a cross-over "inspired" TE atm But I am, as said in another thread... looking/thinking to make/publish some dedicated TE for GOLD only.. maybe XAU/EUR... It might correlate with the time when metalsmine will have a dedicated "Trades" in the upper menu Will see what happens.. I am very interested in the next 2-3weeks.. I am rather confindent I will be able to confirm/reject my eurusd thesis.. and its derivatives in that 2-3w timeframe. Awaiting KEY data/correlation on which my model...
Noted bud! The next couple of weeks ought to be interesting I will be watching attentively when you get that up and running Auri, will definately have a gander at that thread bro. I'm primarily interested with what the technicals on the charts say in particular but will often times look at additional stats or numbers not necessarily the fundamentals per second.

Hedging is often times key bro. More specifically when there's some volatility and uncertainty....I mean looking at XAUUSD alone it's been in a bit of a range from daily buy zone and meets resistance on lower TFs so those hedges often times allow some breathing room the reality is the range will break eventually.



Lol he/she who believes they are 100% correct in a game of probability is misguided....
Thanks for the well wishes and likewise bud....let's keep the dialogue going...

Impressive TE keep on keeping on bud!!!!
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #37
  • Jul 31, 2019 2:57am Jul 31, 2019 2:57am
Pending
short order @ 1290
SL 1301.

Looking at the gold dollar cross and highly positive correlation, this pair may provide a volatile swing upwards should that XAUUSD have a upside spike......
Trade safe
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #38
  • Aug 1, 2019 12:27pm Aug 1, 2019 12:27pm
XAU/AUD resurgence back to 2080? I'm already long on the XAU end but think I should add a short on the AUD side until we hit and then close.
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careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #39
  • Aug 1, 2019 1:47pm Aug 1, 2019 1:47pm
Quoting bulltrap
XAU/AUD resurgence back to 2080? I'm already long on the XAU end but think I should add a short on the AUD side until we hit and then close. {image}
Well... that worked out . Thanks Trump
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careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #40
  • Aug 1, 2019 2:30pm Aug 1, 2019 2:30pm
Not a bad idea at all. Good catch mate......I'm sidelined on this one for now.....
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