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High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

  • #101
  • Jul 18, 2019 3:44am Jul 18, 2019 3:44am
Quoting EventsTrader
Australian Employment Data - July Preview Employment Change Unemployment Rate Notes: The range of estimates for the employment change is from -10K to 24K. Although most forecasts fall between 0K and 20K. There isn't a general consensus, as forecasts are very disbursed. The average forecast and median are about the same, about 9K. The unemployment rate forecasts mostly range between 5.1% and 5.3%. Most economists are forecasting 5.2%. It...
Greetings EventsTrader,I got my analysis right on this event as positive ,I then went long on AUDUSD,the price went up then dropped harshly afterwards,nearly blown my account.
What exactly should I look at before approaching news events so I can do it right?

To hear from you.
  • #102
  • Jul 18, 2019 4:00am Jul 18, 2019 4:00am
EventsTrader,I usually wait for news to be announced on Forex Factory to see if they are negative or positive.But it happens so fast that I even miss the move(In a split second FF will give the data out and at the same time the market will move-As I prepare myself to act following what FF is telling me, the move happens then I miss out)

Is there a way that I can use to read the chart without depending on the report from FF?Last week someone dropped us the link to Powell's Testimony 4HOURS before the announcement was made on FF and the public,I wonder what is this source of information.That source is very helpful as you will be knowing what to do before the market moves.
Do you have any idea what the source is?
  • #103
  • Jul 18, 2019 4:10am Jul 18, 2019 4:10am
Quoting Mmase12
EventsTrader,I usually wait for news to be announced on Forex Factory to see if they are negative or positive.But it happens so fast that I even miss the move(In a split second FF will give the data out and at the same time the market will move-As I prepare myself to act following what FF is telling me, the move happens then I miss out) Is there a way that I can use to read the chart without depending on the report from FF?Last week someone dropped us the link to Powell's Testimony 4HOURS before the announcement was made on FF and the public,I wonder...
Hello,

I was the one who dropped the link to the report. That was a very strange situation because they released their report 4 hours ahead... This nearly never happens, there is no way to know news before news, if there was, we'd all be billionaires, don't get caught up in heady fantasies.

My advice for you is to look at the source, as sometimes they release the data a split second before ff... however, you'll never be faster then automated systems and you'll nearly always miss the first few seconds move of the market, and even if you could do it exactly at the time of release, your broker probably wouldn't be able to process your order so fast.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #104
  • Jul 18, 2019 4:26am Jul 18, 2019 4:26am
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} Hello, I was the one who dropped the link to the report. That was a very strange situation because they released their report 4 hours ahead... This nearly never happens, there is no way to know news before news, if there was, we'd all be billionaires, don't get caught up in heady fantasies. My advice for you is to look at the source, as sometimes they release the data a split second before ff... however, you'll never be faster then automated systems and you'll nearly always miss the first few seconds move of the market, and even if you could...
Hi Vorenzd
What you are saying is true,my orders are always delayed and only get in after the move has happened and go the opposite direction then I lose like this morning on AUD,I lost a lot and my account was nearly blown.What is the alternative,there has to be something out there that can help us catch these moves on time or what is the proper approach to reading the chart before making the decision and without relying on these sources?
I am busy seeking information and someone told that it is illegal to give out that information in advance before the market moves which tells me that it is possible to get the information hours before the market moves
  • #105
  • Jul 18, 2019 4:36am Jul 18, 2019 4:36am
Quoting Mmase12
{quote} Hi Vorenzd What you are saying is true,my orders are always delayed and only get in after the move has happened and go the opposite direction then I lose like this morning on AUD,I lost a lot and my account was nearly blown.What is the alternative,there has to be something out there that can help us catch these moves on time or what is the proper approach to reading the chart before making the decision and without relying on these sources? I am busy seeking information and someone told that it is illegal to give out that information in advance...
I was also the one who told you that that is illegal, and it is very illegal.

Yeah... there is something that can help you catch these moves on time : A high powered supercomputer with great trading software in New York or London connected directly to the exchange... but you need to have a few million $ for the computer and for the exchange location lease...

I worked in an investment firm for 12 years, 9 years as an analyst and 3 years as a trader... trust me, if there was a way to get that data ahead of time, we would have it... but in my whole career, never had that happened.

There are some things that can happen before certain news quite often, but this is mostly contributed to randomness.

If i were you I wouldn't waste valuable time on finding a glitch in the system, but if you wish to go that way, i can only wish you good luck.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #106
  • Jul 18, 2019 9:10am Jul 18, 2019 9:10am
Quoting Vorenzd
however, you'll never be faster then automated systems and you'll nearly always miss the first few seconds move of the market, and even if you could do it exactly at the time of release, your broker probably wouldn't be able to process your order so fast.
Perfect case for being a fast follower.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #107
  • Jul 18, 2019 9:23am Jul 18, 2019 9:23am
Quoting SurfsUp
{quote} Perfect case for being a fast follower.
Any alternative????
  • #108
  • Jul 18, 2019 12:33pm Jul 18, 2019 12:33pm
Quoting Mmase12
{quote} Greetings EventsTrader,I got my analysis right on this event as positive ,I then went long on AUDUSD,the price went up then dropped harshly afterwards,nearly blown my account. What exactly should I look at before approaching news events so I can do it right? To hear from you.
When did you go long the AUD/USD? In terms of what you should be looking at, there's a lot of different things. Most importantly, I believe it's about assessing the risk associated with the event. With enough practice you will begin to understand when might be a good time to trade an event, and when the risk is too high. By risk being too high, I mean you either don't understand the situation enough to make a move, or you've assessed the risk and feel confident to only trade if certain conditions are met. Remember events trading is as risky as it gets, but it's also very lucrative. It takes a lot of time to learn, and it's very intensive in terms of knowing the fundamentals of the market.

Quoting Mmase12
EventsTrader,I usually wait for news to be announced on Forex Factory to see if they are negative or positive.But it happens so fast that I even miss the move(In a split second FF will give the data out and at the same time the market will move-As I prepare myself to act following what FF is telling me, the move happens then I miss out) Is there a way that I can use to read the chart without depending on the report from FF?Last week someone dropped us the link to Powell's Testimony 4HOURS before the announcement was made on FF and the public,I wonder...
Powell's testimony dropped early. It was only the text of the testimony. The Fed does this a lot with the Semi-annual testimonies, and has even released the text the night before the actual testimony. I'm not sure why they do this, but my theory involves the Fed doing what they can to avoid spooking the markets, but the stock market in particular. As Vorenzd stated in his post, there really is not a way to be 'first' in trading these events. It's a good idea to monitor the official source. You can find these source pages on the Metals Mine or Forex Factory calendar in the details section. Even if you could, it wouldn't matter in forex because the brokers either stop data, or slip you to a point where it's now working against you.

You can't be first because everybody gets the data at the same time. So our only option is to try and be smarter. The way I've found to do that is to understand the current state of the markets and the impact different scenarios involving the release might have on related instruments. I also look at the past as a guide. There's no one right answer. But I believe by understanding the implications that an actual deviation from forecasts would have on instrument prices, you can start to understand the risk. I preview a lot of events, but I trade very few. The only reason why I continue to do this is it's worth it. There are instances where it's quite clear that a surprise in the number (usually to one side) could present some significant price movements in one direction.

What you need to be careful of is the volatility and whipsaws, which is very common in this type of trading. Anybody who's been doing this long enough has battle scars from getting whipped, and learned valuable lessons that stick with them to make them better traders.

My best advice is to keep on discussing these events in this thread. Vorenzd is very knowledgeable, and I will always be willing to answer any questions you have. When I post the previews, ask questions about them. There might be a lot that I include where I may not explain it thoroughly because I'm assuming the market understands anything I may not give specific details about.

Unless you feel fully confident, it would be wise to practice and learn some lessons without putting your capital at risk. One way to do that is by using OANDA. They allow you to trade in units, so the lot size would be so small that while you won't make or lose a lot of money, you'll be trading in a live environment as opposed to demo. There are differences that are important to know. Forex brokers have techniques to protect themselves, and limit trading during big releases. If you can't get an account trading units (OANDA) is the only one I know of, then a demo would suffice. Once you start honing your skills and consistently making good trades during releases, then that would be the right time to go live.

One this I can tell you for sure. In my 20+ years of trading the financial markets, the traders that understand the impact of every data releases, have a very thorough and valuable understanding of the overall fundamentals. This not only helps when trading calendar events, but in general trading. Once you begin to understand and assess risk factors, it opens up a world where you can trade with a lot more confidence. Keep on keepin' on Mmase12!
Attached Image
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #109
  • Jul 18, 2019 1:03pm Jul 18, 2019 1:03pm
I still find this high-impact news trading.. at least the spikes and even the aftermaths... somewhat on the gambling side... UNLESS of course one has very good knowledge or even better.. how many got rich in the past... TECH advantage.. aka "signals" insights Am planning to deeply analysis/correlate certain events, the aftermaths, retracements etc... should all other strategies aka REAL trading fail Because sometimes yeah we know/see the BAD news will cause certain direction but if too many people bet on it also... the opposite might happen... short squeeze etc... Also there is a separate expectations for certain news, people just do not rely on those official reports as they did, I think...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #110
  • Jul 18, 2019 1:56pm Jul 18, 2019 1:56pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} When did you go long the AUD/USD? In terms of what you should be looking at, there's a lot of different things. Most importantly, I believe it's about assessing the risk associated with the event. With enough practice you will begin to understand when might be a good time to trade an event, and when the risk is too high. By risk being too high, I mean you either don't understand the situation enough to make a move, or you've assessed the risk and feel confident to only trade if certain conditions are met. Remember events trading is as risky...
Thanks a lot for your help and inputs guys,it really means a lot.I have three years trying to do this but I never got it right even people who claimed to know this only took my money and I ended up learning pure bull from them.The thing is I know how to trade now but I do not know how to make money from trading,I was never taught how to make money from trading but was taught how to trade only.Now I get a bit of an idea from you guys and it helps me a lot.
I will consider OANDA and see if my trades will improve and will you guys know of my progress with them.
Once again,thank you very much
  • #111
  • Jul 18, 2019 2:18pm Jul 18, 2019 2:18pm
Quoting Mmase12
{quote} Thanks a lot for your help and inputs guys,it really means a lot.I have three years trying to do this but I never got it right even people who claimed to know this only took my money and I ended up learning pure bull from them.The thing is I know how to trade now but I do not know how to make money from trading,I was never taught how to make money from trading but was taught how to trade only.Now I get a bit of an idea from you guys and it helps me a lot. I will consider OANDA and see if my trades will improve and will you guys know of my...
Let me know if you have any other questions in the meantime. Good luck!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #112
  • Jul 18, 2019 2:31pm Jul 18, 2019 2:31pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Let me know if you have any other questions in the meantime. Good luck!
Yes I do have a question.
I see that Gold is moving up and up and I have entered long on EURUSD three hour ago and see that it is also going up.Does this mean that EUR and GOLD have a correlation of some kind?
This is not the first time I see this happening,it happened last week and it is happening again this week,it tells me that there are currencies that move along with Gold,am I correct?
Pardon me for asking so many questions is just that I need more insight to this,like now I see Gold going up and I do not know why is it going up,what pushes it.I still got a lot to learn from you guys and I am blessed to have gotten on this forum and it also happened by chance you know.
This for me is the right forum to learn from and make an input where I see fit.
  • #113
  • Jul 18, 2019 2:41pm Jul 18, 2019 2:41pm
Quoting auricforecas
I still find this high-impact news trading.. at least the spikes and even the aftermaths... somewhat on the gambling side
It carries a lot of risk. A lot of traders lose money attempting to trade the data events. I understand where you'd say it's somewhat on the 'gambling side.' In fact, nobody can ever be certain of the outcome prior to any release. All we can do is study it, analyze the data, make assumptions, eliminate risk, and take what the market gives us. Keep in mind, a big part of previewing, preparing, and monitoring these data releases is to know when to stay out of the market. My approach doesn't dictate how to trade a data event. It also tells me not to trade a data release.

There is opportunity to make money from high-impact news, but it's not as frequent as most people realize. One thing I will say is that there are times when if you're ready, you can take advantage of market conditions post-data if you're prepared. It's seldom but it happens. I also want to point out that I'm not only an 'events trader.' Of all the previews that I post, I might trade anywhere from one to maybe four data releases in a month. Most of the time it's closer to two. I trade events as part of my overall strategy to trying to profit from the markets.

The reason I continue to spend time trading these data releases is not necessarily the profit potential, although that's always a consideration. I value the understanding I gain my studying the key global economic data. Having a strong understanding of fundamentals makes me a better trader outside of trading the events.

I totally understand that there's different trading styles and events trading may not make sense for other traders with a different approach the markets. I appreciate you posting your thoughts auricforecas. You are always welcome here anytime, and your feedback and insight is always appreciated.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #114
  • Jul 18, 2019 2:51pm Jul 18, 2019 2:51pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} It carries a lot of risk. A lot of traders lose money attempting to trade the data events. I understand where you'd say it's somewhat on the 'gambling side.' In fact, nobody can ever be certain of the outcome prior to any release. All we can do is study it, analyze the data, make assumptions, eliminate risk, and take what the market gives us. Keep in mind, a big part of previewing, preparing, and monitoring these data releases is to know when to stay out of the market. My approach doesn't dictate how to trade a data event. It also tells...
Yea, totally agree.. In fact, at my most successfull winning row/streak... I REMOVED all the trades arround the high-impact news... This is one of the things that can FAIL/collapse my model, at least temporary... So I try to avoid it as much as possible, if not always... Unless I firmly PLAN to GO THROUGH whatever happens, even risking/eating the high-impact loses Sometimes I bet on some outcome... for example I bet that this FED/ECB decision will either not impact or won't impact for long... or that it will be a combination of which should follow the predicted line/curve

In fact, even more.. I noticed that I SHOULD NOT watch the high-impact news at all.... aside of skipping them when ENTERING the trade... One time I mistakenly forgot to check and entered the position just few minutes.. after some high-impact spike news... and it didn't help my position So what I'm trying to say is that should I watch, specially live news/chart... I might get very demoralised.. when I see my position get totally crashed.. and it seems there is no hope.. impact emminent... much better to check it in retrospect.. when I just see the spike/anomaly in the "past" and smile, maybe remove the out-lier.. and move on... in contrast to watching this slow-motion torture when nothing seems to be working, going in the predicted direction and thinking price prediction model of 10years... if it did work... (can not be sure, still is finally DONE So yeah, I plan about when/what not to trade and contrary to some people here... I noticed that I trade better when I at least for time being.. SET AND (TEMP) FORGET certain trades... if not, I might get demoralised or even CLOSE certain trades.. before TP.... much more of those than the ones that I "saved" from SL I use the help of semi-auto EAs for this and/or setting the STOP levels of course...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #115
  • Jul 18, 2019 3:01pm Jul 18, 2019 3:01pm
Quoting Mmase12
{quote} Can you please tell me where you get this figures from,the source?
NP! I get the figures from the homepage or calendar page. I don't really dig into the deets of the source, until far after the event, when I review... if I remember...

I try to keep it simple... and watch the figures that's released on the calendar...once theyre released, look for a reaction in the market, decide if things are making sense to me... pull the trigger on a trade or stay put.

The unannounced/surprise breaking news/events are the ones I TRY to capitalize on...

The orange news and red news (not scheduled on the calendar from what I could tell) clearly made the move here to new highs for Gold:
Attached Image
  • #116
  • Jul 18, 2019 3:06pm Jul 18, 2019 3:06pm
Quoting Mmase12
Pardon me for asking so many questions
Ask anytime! I'll do my best to answer.

Quoting Mmase12
{quote} Yes I do have a question. I see that Gold is moving up and up and I have entered long on EURUSD three hour ago and see that it is also going up.Does this mean that EUR and GOLD have a correlation of some kind? This is not the first time I see this happening,it happened last week and it is happening again this week,it tells me that there are currencies that move along with Gold,am I correct?
Gold and EUR/USD can have a strong correlation. For example when the US dollar is depreciating, especially to the extent it has today, gold and the eur/usd will move up in tandem. A big part of that is that gold is priced in US dollars and the euro is crossed with the US dollar. So think of it in this example of how they can be positively correlated as both have a similar relationship with the US dollar. There are other reasons why they might be positively correlated as well, but I've found that relying on correlations too much is a slippery slope. It's smart to look at these correlations and gauge the markets, but be careful making trades based off of correlations. It's not a perfect correlation.

Take a look at some overlays of Gold (GC futures continuous) with the EUR/USD.

15M Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-9.png Size: 35 KB


Hourly Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-7.png Size: 31 KB


Daily Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-8.png Size: 18 KB
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #117
  • Jul 18, 2019 3:21pm Jul 18, 2019 3:21pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yea, totally agree.. In fact, at my most successfull winning row/streak... I REMOVED all the trades arround the high-impact news... This is one of the things that can FAIL/collapse my model, at least temporary... So I try to avoid it as much as possible, if not always... Unless I firmly PLAN to GO THROUGH whatever happens, even risking/eating the high-impact loses Sometimes I bet on some outcome... for example I bet that this FED/ECB decision will either not impact or won't impact for long... or that it will be a combination of which...
You make a good point about staying away from the PC so you don't get trigger happy on temporary volatility. I never try to encourage traders to take risk. Actually, the point of my previews is to help myself and other traders (hopefully) avoid risk. If your strategy has nothing to do with trading high impact data releases, hopefully you will check in on my previews from time to time for the highest impact releases such as NFP. There could be some instances where taking profits off the table ahead of a big release might make sense. It just depends on your time horizon. You sound like you have an approach you've worked years to formulate. I look forward to hearing from you in the future and gaining insights from your take on the markets.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #118
  • Jul 18, 2019 4:46pm Jul 18, 2019 4:46pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Ask anytime! I'll do my best to answer. {quote} Gold and EUR/USD can have a strong correlation. For example when the US dollar is depreciating, especially to the extent it has today, gold and the eur/usd will move up in tandem. A big part of that is that gold is priced in US dollars and the euro is crossed with the US dollar. So think of it in this example of how they can be positively correlated as both have a similar relationship with the US dollar. There are other reasons why they might be positively correlated as well, but I've found...
I see what you mean and I think I must stop focusing a lot on news trading and put my focus on Gold,it looks like a safe haven to me but I wanna do it right unlike the events and I know I will get it right and since I followed you I catch it bit by bit and thanks a lot for that
  • #119
  • Jul 18, 2019 4:48pm Jul 18, 2019 4:48pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Ask anytime! I'll do my best to answer. {quote} Gold and EUR/USD can have a strong correlation. For example when the US dollar is depreciating, especially to the extent it has today, gold and the eur/usd will move up in tandem. A big part of that is that gold is priced in US dollars and the euro is crossed with the US dollar. So think of it in this example of how they can be positively correlated as both have a similar relationship with the US dollar. There are other reasons why they might be positively correlated as well, but I've found...
If I may ask,which platform is this getting two instruments at the same time
  • #120
  • Jul 18, 2019 4:55pm Jul 18, 2019 4:55pm
Quoting Mmase12
{quote} If I may ask,which platform is this getting two instruments at the same time
TradeStation. But many of them out there do it. I don't think MT4 does though.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
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