High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper | Page 7 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread 57,123 replies

Errors & Warnings From Old & New EAs After Compilation 12 replies

High Reward to Risk Trading 312 replies

s&p500 and gold Risk ON/OFF Price action trading 34 replies

Spot Gold spreads so high 9 replies

Attachments: High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper
Exit Attachments

High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

  • #121
  • Jul 18, 2019 5:17pm Jul 18, 2019 5:17pm
Quoting GoldGrilz
{quote} NP! I get the figures from the homepage or calendar page. I don't really dig into the deets of the source, until far after the event, when I review... if I remember... I try to keep it simple... and watch the figures that's released on the calendar...once theyre released, look for a reaction in the market, decide if things are making sense to me... pull the trigger on a trade or stay put. The unannounced/surprise...
Thanks for the information you have given me,I get what you mean and am currently checking.Will not sleep until I get this done
  • #122
  • Jul 18, 2019 5:18pm Jul 18, 2019 5:18pm
Quoting Mmase12
{quote} Thanks for the information you have given me,I get what you mean and am currently checking.Will not sleep until I get this done
dedication or obsession? maybe both?
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #123
  • Jul 19, 2019 6:02am Jul 19, 2019 6:02am
Quoting bulltrap
{quote} dedication or obsession? maybe both?
Persistence and perseverance
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #124
  • Jul 19, 2019 10:49am Jul 19, 2019 10:49am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} TradeStation. But many of them out there do it. I don't think MT4 does though.
Alrite I see,thanks a lot.Which one from the many do you prefer I use
  • #125
  • Jul 19, 2019 11:01am Jul 19, 2019 11:01am
Quoting Mmase12
{quote} Hi Vorenzd What you are saying is true,my orders are always delayed and only get in after the move has happened and go the opposite direction then I lose like this morning on AUD,I lost a lot and my account was nearly blown.What is the alternative,there has to be something out there that can help us catch these moves on time or what is the proper approach to reading the chart before making the decision and without relying on these sources? I am busy seeking information and someone told that it is illegal to give out that information in advance...
Like I told you that I will keep on digging,I have come across BLOOMBERG TERMINAL a moment ago.It is so expensive to use but it is very very very helpful,with it I will not miss anything,they even say that they will email everything through to me before any market movement takes place but it is way to expensive and I even heard Trump asking if there is no one out there willing to replace it.
I wonder if there is any alternative.Do you perhaps know how I can get the correct Pivot Point Indicator that will show the levels correctly,the one I use is complicated?

Thanks in advance
  • #126
  • Jul 19, 2019 3:41pm Jul 19, 2019 3:41pm
Quoting Mmase12
{quote} Like I told you that I will keep on digging,I have come across BLOOMBERG TERMINAL a moment ago.It is so expensive to use but it is very very very helpful,with it I will not miss anything,they even say that they will email everything through to me before any market movement takes place but it is way to expensive and I even heard Trump asking if there is no one out there willing to replace it. I wonder if there is any alternative.
It certainly feels like there is a need in the market that can and will be filled over time. No dominant player stays that way forever!
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #127
  • Edited 6:19pm Jul 19, 2019 6:02pm | Edited 6:19pm
The story might sound like I'm bragging but as any trader out there who has been in the same situation knows, I got nervous, and after the trade I felt pretty lucky. It was all based on the Fed rate expectations imbalance. I was certain sentiment had to shift prior to the FOMC meeting.

I shorted the EUR/USD at this week's lowest levels, prior to the rally yesterday of about 70 pips. I used most of my margin entering at those levels, and any margin I had left, I used to continue to short as it went higher. I even made three additional deposits in order to avoid a margin call, and to continue to short the EUR/USD as it went higher.

After making additional deposits and maxing out my margin, the EUR/USD finally started to come down after yesterday's NY Fed backtrack on the Williams speech. At every opportunity when my margin fell below 50:1, I'd sell short the max amount I was allowed, however small. In all I ended up with 138 trades since yesterday. Finally, I closed the entire position this morning prior to the US equity market open. After about a 28% drawdown, I made it all back and then some.

I wouldn't recommend this strategy in most scenarios, except in those rare situations where you have a very high level of confidence. Luckily it worked out today, but the fundamental reasoning was about as solid as it gets. Here's my Explorer showing today's recover of 21.5% and an equity curve straight up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-6.png Size: 8 KB


I wasn't the only one certain that rate expectations were going to shift. There were quite a few traders with the same thoughts. It certaintly helped knowing they felt as strongly as I did. Ef5, Vorenzd, and bulltrap were just as adamant about it and thank goodness for them, and the way they posted about it. It strengthened my position.

I don't think we are out of the woods either. There is still room for more of a shift towards the 25bp rate cut, but we'll see about that next week.

Next week the high impact events I'll be focused on is GDP and the ECB meeting. Have a great weekend everybody!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #128
  • Edited Jul 24, 2019 5:24pm Jul 22, 2019 5:59pm | Edited Jul 24, 2019 5:24pm
ECB Meeting - July Preview

  1. Monetary Policy Statement
  2. Main Refinancing Rate
  3. ECB Press Conference

Notes:

  1. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest unchanged.
  2. The consensus is that the ECB will tweak the policy language to an easing bias, and more stimulus is imminent.
  3. The ECB is expected to change forward guidance to signal rate cuts, potentially 10bp cut in September and more beyond that meeting.
  4. Although a possibility, changes in any language relating to inflation and growth seem unlikely.
  5. 45 minutes after the rate announcement/statement, Draghi is expected to deliver a dovish press conference.
  6. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to what actions the ECB might take, what guidance will be given going forward, and the tone with which Draghi will address the media. While most expect an overall dovish base case, there's a chance the ECB could surprise by either being more dovish or hawkish than expected.

Recent impact on Gold and EUR/USD:
The recent impact has shown that we should expect significant volatility, although movement in gold may be limited when compared to the EUR/USD. We can also see that the press conference can either exacerbate any initial move or trigger a reversal. Caution is advised if a position is taken prior to the press conference.

June Meeting:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jjunee.png Size: 16 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: junee.png Size: 14 KB


April Meeting:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: april.png Size: 14 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: apr.png Size: 17 KB


March Meeting:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: marchh.png Size: 16 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: marchch.png Size: 17 KB


Conclusion:
There's no doubt about the fact that we should see plenty of market movement around these releases. However, it would be wise to wait until a clear direction has taken hold, which most likely wouldn't occur until after Draghi's presser. I'll be monitoring the events and looking for potential shorting opportunities. As always, caution is advised. Good luck fellow traders!

In the charts above you'll see an initial line that represents the candle prior to the rate announcement/rate statement, then the second vertical line is placed at the start of the ECB press conference.

Attached Image
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #129
  • Jul 24, 2019 4:47am Jul 24, 2019 4:47am
ECB Policy Announcement - THURSDAY 25.7.2019.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announces policy tomorrow, and is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. That is my expectation as well, although we look for the ECB to adjust its forward guidance to hint at a near-term rate cut (I expect it will cut its deposit and refinancing rates 10 bps to -0.50% and -0.10%, respectively, in September)...

At this time, I do not expect the central bank to restart its asset purchase program, although we can acknowledge the risks have risen in recent weeks as the Eurozone economy continues to underwhelm. Moreover, we can see a moderate risk that the ECB will catch markets off guard and cut interest rates immediately, rather than waiting to see how the economy evolves between now and September. The ECB has made similarly surprising policy announcements in recent years, and a rate cut tomorrow would carry strong messaging on the ECB’s commitment to its mandate.

Previous: -0.40%

Personal opinion: -0.40%

Consensus: -0.40%
Attached Image
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #130
  • Jul 24, 2019 2:39pm Jul 24, 2019 2:39pm
Quoting EventsTrader
ECB Meeting - July Preview Monetary Policy Statement Main Refinancing Rate ECB Press Conference Notes: The ECB is widely expected to keep interest unchanged. The consensus is that the ECB will tweak the policy language to an easing bias, and more stimulus is imminent. The ECB is expected to change forward guidance to signal rate cuts, potentially 10bp cut in September and more beyond...
I love those charts. It looks like the EURUSD is much easier to take directional trades on for this event than gold though. Between the initial move, intermission before the press conf and then after the press conf there is time to follow price movement.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #131
  • Jul 24, 2019 2:40pm Jul 24, 2019 2:40pm
Quoting Vorenzd
Moreover, we can see a moderate risk that the ECB will catch markets off guard and cut interest rates immediately, rather than waiting to see how the economy evolves between now and September.
The sentiment around US Fed policy is probably not doing this risk any favors either. What are the odds of a cut you think?
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #132
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:31pm Jul 24, 2019 3:31pm
Quoting Vorenzd
ECB Policy Announcement - THURSDAY 25.7.2019. The European Central Bank (ECB) announces policy tomorrow, and is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. That is my expectation as well, although we look for the ECB to adjust its forward guidance to hint at a near-term rate cut (I expect it will cut its deposit and refinancing rates 10 bps to -0.50% and -0.10%, respectively, in September)... At this time, I do not expect the central bank to restart its asset purchase program, although we can acknowledge the risks have risen in recent weeks...
Appreciate both views, helpful to solidify my opinion and positions. Thanks to both you and ET!
  • #133
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:57pm Jul 24, 2019 3:57pm
Quoting bulltrap
{quote} I love those charts. It looks like the EURUSD is much easier to take directional trades on for this event than gold though. Between the initial move, intermission before the press conf and then after the press conf there is time to follow price movement.
Agreed. The opportunity seems to be pretty extreme in EUR/USD as far as taking a direction. It's one to monitor for sure.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #134
  • Jul 24, 2019 5:15pm Jul 24, 2019 5:15pm
Quoting EventsTrader
ECB Meeting - July Preview
Nice write up ET.
If you have faith in our leaders of commerce, don't buy gold.
  • #135
  • Jul 24, 2019 6:13pm Jul 24, 2019 6:13pm
Quoting bulltrap
{quote} The sentiment around US Fed policy is probably not doing this risk any favors either. What are the odds of a cut you think?
Considering the string of negative EU new data that missed most forecasts and the negative revisions of previous data as well as some news this week... i'd say that the situation got complicated really fast.

I'd put the chances of a rate cut for tomorrow's meeting at about 47,5% for a rate cut tomorrow.

Just for reference, my forecast last week was 25% chance of a rate cut... So let me quickly explain why the 22,5% change in chronological order:

1. BOJ GOV KURODA hinted at additional monetary easing steps in japan - New outlook: 30% chance
Quotes:
1.1 "The bank will persistently continue with powerful easing in order to maintain the momentum toward achieving 2 percent inflation,"
1.2 "Recently, uncertainties regarding the global economy have been heightening, and some nervousness has been seen in global financial markets"


2. String of negative EU data today, most missed forecasts, and some were revised worse. -New outlook- 40% chance

3. Boris Johnson becomes british PM, and increases risk of no deal brexit - New outlook - 47,5% chance

Note: This is my personal forecast that's not available to the general public, so this doesn't necesarily have to mean that the markets are pricing in exactly this, which is good for us... more money to earn!

As you can see, it's a pretty uncertain situation especially considering this weeks data and news. We have a nearly 50-50 situation and whatever happens, we should expect some very agressive moments.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #136
  • Jul 24, 2019 6:32pm Jul 24, 2019 6:32pm
Just a quick overview about where I think we stand on the FOMC meeting. It's a comment to a news story but linking it here because I'll most likely want to reference it leading up to next week. Also, if there's any interest in reading or discussing it, you can find it here: https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...8#post12401658
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #137
  • Jul 24, 2019 6:34pm Jul 24, 2019 6:34pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} Considering the string of negative EU new data that missed most forecasts and the negative revisions of previous data as well as some news this week... i'd say that the situation got complicated really fast. I'd put the chances of a rate cut for tomorrow's meeting at about 47,5% for a rate cut tomorrow. Just for reference, my forecast last week was 25% chance of a rate cut... So let me quickly explain why the 22,5% change in chronological order: 1. BOJ GOV KURODA hinted at additional monetary easing steps in japan - New outlook: 30% chance...
Very interesting shift Vorenzd. I hadn't considered that the PMI data would impact their rate decision. But you've made some very good points that is going to make me revisit this and see if market sentiment has changed. It sounds like it has. Thanks for the heads up!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #138
  • Jul 24, 2019 6:56pm Jul 24, 2019 6:56pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Very interesting shift Vorenzd. I hadn't considered that the PMI data would impact their rate decision. But you've made some very good points that is going to make me revisit this and see if market sentiment has changed. It sounds like it has. Thanks for the heads up!
You are right mate,PMI usually wouldn't impact their rate decision that much, but hear this out: It's not about the PMI data, it's about a deeper issue that's being swept under the rug in the EU.

I don't know if you're trading/following the Eurozone stock markets (Mainly Germany and France), but stocks have been rallying all year... and that all sounds good, but the problem is that these companies aren't reporting results that back up this rise. The market is far worse then the US stock market but yet it keeps rising at the fastest pace in 20 years creating what is (in my opinion) a massive bubble.

ECB has pushed the rates to low and tried to keep the economy up with its QE measures and similar stuff... but the problem is they've gotten to the point of no return, they got to the point where they need to pump so much stimulus into the economy just for it to stay alive.. and that's where fed could get if it does a 50bps rate cut and a 75bps in Q4 2019.

The same thing happened to Japan... low/negative interest rates are a double edged sword.

Now if you take a look at the PMI data, and if you take a look at company reports, at the Deutsche Bank debacle and many other European economic factors, you would probably say we're nearly in a recession.

The PMI data HAD to improve to show some progress in the economy... you see, the PMI itself is not important, but what is important is when you have a stagnating economy where companies have low view's of the economy but yet the stock market is rising the fastest in this century.

And this string of negative EU data started a long while ago... it started BEFORE the latest EZ stock rally from january.

So that's why i choose to increase my rate expectations by 10% based on this data set.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #139
  • Jul 24, 2019 7:06pm Jul 24, 2019 7:06pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} You are right mate,PMI usually wouldn't impact their rate decision that much, but hear this out: It's not about the PMI data, it's about a deeper issue that's being swept under the rug in the EU. I don't know if you're trading/following the Eurozone stock markets (Mainly Germany and France), but stocks have been rallying all year... and that all sounds good, but the problem is that these companies aren't reporting results that back up this rise. The market is far worse then the US stock market but yet it keeps rising at the fastest pace...
The ECB rate cut and signaling more to come, along with the rate expectations for the FOMC being too skewed towards 50bp, you're making a strong case for shorting the eur/usd.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #140
  • Jul 24, 2019 7:08pm Jul 24, 2019 7:08pm
Just look at these charts compared to the PMI chart... PMI is (in theory) a good indicator of economic health, and when you have a PMI under 50 since the start of 2019 and the stock market is rising, then you also add all the other negative EU data and it's clear that ECB needs to provide heavy stimulus to keep the EU from going into a recession.

DE30 (Left) and FRANCE 40 (right)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (181).png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (182).png Size: 7 KB
Attached Image
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
11 traders viewing now