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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #50,861
  • Jul 12, 2019 6:29am Jul 12, 2019 6:29am
Quoting DaoMingSi
Hi guys, do you all look at other heavily-correlated pairs (such as EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and DXY) when trading gold? I just took a look and I think EUR/USD is going up and USD/CHF is going down. This should mean gold will make a rocket up...I think. Also, does USD/CHF or USD/JPY co-relate more with gold? Thank you.
Hello!

I personally don't look at any pairs when trading gold, the only situation when i do like to look at other pairs is when there is a high impact event to determine if something is market manipulation( for example, something like stop loss hunting) or not. I like to check out S&P 500 for reference.

I tend to have much better results when not getting carried away by looking at other pairs, sometimes what happens is you get too caught up in the other pair and forget to focus on gold itself. That's why i prefer to stay away from that.

However, if you are interested in studying inter correlation, here's a live correlation table in which you can compare any popular forex asset: https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading...cy-correlation
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #50,862
  • Jul 12, 2019 6:30am Jul 12, 2019 6:30am
Quoting Vorenzd
I've closed my trade at 1407, the situation has become too uncertain for me, i will wait more for a better oprotunity... as @Eventstrader says: "Capital preservation first,then profits".
Yessir! I'm with you and currently sitting on the sidelines. Sometimes the best position is flat. Unless gold suddenly decides to break 1400 before the weekend, I'm probably just going to wait for opportunity to knock. I still want to see how the US dollar will trade after the US opens.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,863
  • Jul 12, 2019 6:37am Jul 12, 2019 6:37am
Quoting DaoMingSi
Hi guys, do you all look at other heavily-correlated pairs (such as EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and DXY) when trading gold? I just took a look and I think EUR/USD is going up and USD/CHF is going down. This should mean gold will make a rocket up...I think. Also, does USD/CHF or USD/JPY co-relate more with gold? Thank you.
It can be helpful to look at the USD crosses to measure dollar strength/weakness, especially during larger, prolonged moves. But it doesn't really reveal too much. I don't usually look to one pair to correlate. I'm not sure there's too much value in currency pair/gold correlations. It's just the USD/gold inverse relationship that's important.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,864
  • Jul 12, 2019 6:58am Jul 12, 2019 6:58am
I think NY traders will buy gold ahead of the PPI data.
  • #50,865
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:02am Jul 12, 2019 7:02am
Opened a short position with very tight stop. Target is anything under 1400 by near end of day
  • #50,866
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:05am Jul 12, 2019 7:05am
Be vary of the PPI data that will be released at in 30 minutes, it may have a significant impact on the market if it falls short of the expectations. This probably wont happen, but still it's something to keep in mind.


In a market that is "hope driven", even the slightest disapointment in data can lead to huge consequences.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #50,867
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:19am Jul 12, 2019 7:19am
Quoting Vorenzd
Be vary of the PPI data that will be released at in 30 minutes, it may have a significant impact on the market if it falls short of the expectations. This probably wont happen, but still it's something to keep in mind. In a market that is "hope driven", even the slightest disapointment in data can lead to huge consequences.
We are going to find out in few minutes ahead..
  • #50,868
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:22am Jul 12, 2019 7:22am
Quoting Vorenzd
Be vary of the PPI data that will be released at in 30 minutes, it may have a significant impact on the market if it falls short of the expectations. This probably wont happen, but still it's something to keep in mind. In a market that is "hope driven", even the slightest disapointment in data can lead to huge consequences.
Good point about the markets being overly sensitive to data right now. PPI usually doesn't have much impact. In fact, the past two months, it had little to no impact. Actually, the last time it had any significant impact was back in Jan of this year, when both the core and overall missed expectations. Here's the link to that release: https://www.metalsmine.com/calendar....#detail=102226

I'd be surprised if PPI impacted the markets, but the potential certainly exists. We will likely need both numbers to either miss or surprise by a good margin for a hefty impact. At least that's my two sense. Good to see someone looking out for the data releases Vorenzd!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,869
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:36am Jul 12, 2019 7:36am
Trade already in profit, sl: a bit in profit... tp: below 1400
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #50,870
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:38am Jul 12, 2019 7:38am
Might even hold the short position over the weekend if there is a possibility of it reaching 1390...
  • #50,871
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:48am Jul 12, 2019 7:48am
Quoting EventsTrader
Good to see someone looking out for the data releases Vorenzd!
Yeah, I always do! I stumbled upon your high impact events trading thread (https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=921168 ) the 2 days ago, and I must say i'm glad to see more discussion in the non technical aspect of trading.

------

As for gold now, the technicals point to a market that's undecided whether to go up or down for the day, however the Core PPI which came just slightly under expectations might be enough to push the markets to a bearish perspective for the rest of the day. We should wait for a confirmation on this.

Even though the event itself doesn't have a strong impact on the markets, the technical outlook and sentiment are near a tipping point and thus it might be the small push needed to get the market going.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #50,872
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:58am Jul 12, 2019 7:58am
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} Yeah, I always do! I stumbled upon your high impact events trading thread (https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=921168 ) the 2 days ago, and I must say i'm glad to see more discussion in the non technical aspect of trading.
Good to hear! You're feedback, comments, insights, etc is encouraged anytime!

Quoting Vorenzd
------ As for gold now, the technicals point to a market that's undecided whether to go up or down for the day, however the Core PPI which came just slightly under expectations might be enough to push the markets to a bearish perspective for the rest of the day. We should wait for a confirmation on this. Even though the event itself doesn't have a strong impact on the markets, the technical outlook and sentiment are near a tipping point and thus it might be the small push needed to get the market going.
Yeah. The market needs something to go off of. And right now that's about all it has. We are about to see some volume enter the market as equity markets get going pretty soon. If gold doesn't start declining on the heels of a US dollar rebound, I'd be surprised. Don't quote me, but man the writing is on the wall.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,873
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:00am Jul 12, 2019 8:00am
Quoting Chart1st
Might even hold the short position over the weekend if there is a possibility of it reaching 1390...
I'm 99% of the time against holding over the weekend if you can help it. But funny that you bring this up. I am considering holding a couple long dollar positions depending on how today unfolds.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,874
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:05am Jul 12, 2019 8:05am
Quoting Chart1st
Opened a short position with very tight stop. Target is anything under 1400 by near end of day
Quoting montygoldy
Trade already in profit, sl: a bit in profit... tp: below 1400
We could see this finally happen as the equity markets open up. I'm rooting for you guys because I've committed to a long position in the US dollar. Gold going lower means USD heading higher.

It's time gentlemen. It's time!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,875
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:09am Jul 12, 2019 8:09am
Something else to consider. Rate cut bets did in fact come off a little from yesterday. Perhaps a preview of today's theme? Rational thinking leads me to believe we see a correction today. But since we deal in an irrational market, I'm not very confident. We'll find out within the next hour or so.

Here's the change in rate cut bets since yesterday:
Attached Image
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,876
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:20am Jul 12, 2019 8:20am
XAUUSD 1H Chart:
Correction over?
Looks to be turning up from a higher Low?
Long $1406
Cheers, U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 190712 XAUUSD 1H [1].png Size: 56 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #50,877
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:22am Jul 12, 2019 8:22am
One more thing guys, China's GDP number is due out Sunday night, four or five hours after the open. The prior was 6.4%. The risk there is that if it comes in lower than the prior, it would be the lowest reading since April 2009. The market could run gold up on that news despite the fact I'm not entirely confident traders even really believe GDP figures China publishes.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #50,878
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:24am Jul 12, 2019 8:24am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} {quote} We could see this finally happen as the equity markets open up. I'm rooting for you guys because I've committed to a long position in the US dollar. Gold going lower means USD heading higher. It's time gentlemen. It's time!
I exited for a small profit. Still have faith that gold is going to keep sinking, just waiting on these small pullbacks and will look to enter again...

Looking at the hourly and 30m chart, the structure that price formed, it doesn't look like it has any strength to go up.

But hey anything can happen. Tread carefully
  • #50,879
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:24am Jul 12, 2019 8:24am
XAUUSD 4H Chart:
MA's appear to favour Long?
Buying activity above $1405?
Cheers, U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 190712 XAUUSD 4H [1].png Size: 90 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #50,880
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:24am Jul 12, 2019 8:24am
Quoting EventsTrader
Rational thinking leads me to believe we see a correction today. But since we deal in an irrational market, I'm not very confident.
If market acts irrationally, what's the point of all this rational thinking then?
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
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